Kentucky Derby Odds 2015: Picks, Dark-Horse Contenders and More
A loaded field makes predicting the 2015 Kentucky Derby as difficult as ever.
While there will always be favorites heading into the first leg of the Triple Crown, there is a lot of uncertainty with 20 contenders entering the heavily anticipated race. A poor start or even a bad post position can end a great runner's chances of winning.
After examining the pros and cons of the top contenders, though, here is a look at some picks to watch for along with a full table of entries.
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| 1 | Ocho Ocho Ocho | Elvis Trujillo | Jim Cassidy | 50-1 |
| 2 | Carpe Diem | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 8-1 |
| 3 | Materiality | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 12-1 |
| 4 | Tencendur | Manny Franco | George Weaver | 30-1 |
| 5 | Danzig Moon | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | 30-1 |
| 6 | Mubtaahij | Christophe Soumillion | Mike de Kock | 20-1 |
| 7 | El Kabeir | Calvin Borel | John Terranova II | 30-1 |
| 8 | Dortmund | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 3-1 |
| 9 | Bolo | Rafael Bejarano | Carla Gaines | 30-1 |
| 10 | Firing Line | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghan | 12-1 |
| 11 | Stanford | Florent Geroux | Todd Pletcher | 30-1 |
| 12 | International Star | Miguel Mena | Mike Maker | 20-1 |
| 13 | Itsaknockout | Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher | 30-1 |
| 14 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 50-1 |
| 15 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 15-1 |
| 16 | War Story | Joe Talamo | Tom Amoss | 50-1 |
| 17 | Mr. Z | Ramon Vazquez | D. Wayne Lukas | 50-1 |
| 18 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 5-2 |
| 19 | Upstart | Jose Ortiz | Rick Violette Jr. | 15-1 |
| 20 | Far Right | Mike Smith | Ron Moquett | 30-1 |
| 21 | Frammento | Corey Nakatani | Nicholas Zito | 50-1 |
| 22 | Tale of Verve | Brian Hernandez Jr. | Dallas Stewart | 50-1 |
Predicted Winner: Dortmund
While he isn't the true favorite heading into the Kentucky Derby, Dortmund isn't far off at 3-1. American Pharoah currently sits at a slightly better 5-2.
Still, Dortmund is certainly a contender to watch in this race due to his overwhelming success in the past. The thoroughbred has made six starts in his career and won all six of them, most recently at the Santa Anita Derby.
Another big boost came in the post position draw, which led to a favorable starting position for Dortmund, according to Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports:
No one wants to be trapped at the rail, but being too far outside can also lead to a longer run. If you don't get a quick start, there might not be enough time to catch up. However, neither is an issue from the safety of the No. 8 post.
Meanwhile, Jay Privman of Daily Racing Form likes what he has seen from the horse so far this week:
"Dortmund couldn't be doing any better.
Really like how well Dortmund looks here. Another good gallop from him just now under exercise rider Dana Barnes, and his coat is radiant. Looking like he will give his stablemate a run for the money on Saturday.
"
With legendary trainer Bob Baffert leading the way and a good rapport with jockey Martin Garcia, Dortmund has all the tools necessary to end up in the winner's circle.
Dark Horse: El Kabeir
It's difficult to find a true sleeper in a race where seven horses have listed odds of 15-1 or better. In the next group, however, you can find a solid dark horse in El Kabeir.
The colt might not be perfect like Dortmund with just four wins in nine races. Still, he is battle-tested after competing in seven different graded races, including three victories. Most recently he had a respectable third-place finish at the Wood Memorial Stakes.
Another factor to look for is the fact El Kabeir already has had some success at Churchill Downs, winning the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club in November. Leading him in that win was Calvin Borel, who will ride him again Saturday for just the second time.
Trainer John Terranova II explained why he is going with Borel instead of C.C. Lopez for the Kentucky Derby, per ESPN.com's Bob Ehalt:
"You come to Churchill, you think 'Calvin Borel.' Calvin had the mount for the Jerome, but he had a death in the family and couldn't make it. C.C. Lopez got the mount and has done a wonderful job in his races this winter. We felt coming into this type of race and given Calvin's past success and history on this racetrack, we'd go back to where we started.
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Borel hasn't been the most consistent jockey in recent years, but he has won the Kentucky Derby three times, most recently in 2010. He excels in Triple Crown events and should be able to give his horse an extra boost.
Add in the experience of El Kabeir and Borel, especially at Churchill Downs, and this is a team that could surprise everyone.
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