Kentucky Derby 2015 Odds: Updated Vegas Lines and Predictions After Post Draw

If history truly does repeat itself, there are a number of horses who shouldn’t even bother to enter the 141st Kentucky Derby Saturday after Wednesday’s post position draw.  

The underrated draw is often overlooked as a critical factor to any Derby, but it is even more important in this year’s loaded field. Even the smallest of advantages can make the difference between a first-place and fourth-place finish with so many quality horses in the running.

That is unfortunate news for the horses that drew the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 17 gates Wednesday. 

Here is a look at the odds and starting posts for those horses and the entire field leading up to Saturday’s Run for the Roses:

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Morning-Line Odds
1	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	50-1
2	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8-1
3	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	12-1
4	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	30-1
5	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	30-1
6	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	20-1
7	El Kabeir	Calvin Borel	John Terranova II	30-1
8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	3-1
9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	30-1
10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12-1
11	Stanford	Florent Geroux	Todd Pletcher	30-1
12	International Star	Miguel Mena	Mike Maker	20-1
13	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	30-1
14	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	50-1
15	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	15-1
16	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
18	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	5-2
19	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	15-1
20	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	30-1
	Also Eligible
n/a	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nicholas Zito	n/a
n/a	Tale of Verve	Brian Hernandez Jr.	Dallas Stewart	n/a

The most important thing about the post position draw is simply avoiding the poor posts, which means Ocho Ocho Ocho, Mr. Z and Carpe Diem were Wednesday’s losers. Ocho Ocho Ocho drew the dreaded No. 1 post, and Mr. Z landed the No. 17 post.

No horse in Kentucky Derby history has won from the No. 17 post. Also, no horse in the past 19 years has won from the No. 1 post, and no horse since 1978 has won from the No. 2 post. Ocho Ocho Ocho and Mr. Z were already among the long shots coming into Wednesday’s draw, so they probably won’t be taking home the title in this year’s race.

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

However, the fact that Carpe Diem drew the No. 2 post is more important than the Nos. 1 and 17 gates because he is actually one of the more notable horses in this race. It is a crippling blow, especially with horses the caliber of American Pharoah and Dortmund in the field.

It is not difficult to figure out why so many trainers and jockeys fear the No. 1 and No. 2 gates. They are on the inside of a crowded field, which raises the possibility of getting trapped against the rails in the early going. That can lead to an overwhelming deficit that is simply too difficult to overcome, especially if some of the stronger horses pace the field.

American Pharoah certainly fits the bill as one of the strongest horses.

He drew the No. 18 post, which is likely more to the outside than his camp preferred. Still, he won his past four races by more than 22 lengths and is known for breaking out of the gates and establishing an early lead. From there, he simply blows away the rest of the field and has the race well in hand by the finish line.

American Pharoah will have plenty of room on such an outside gate to demonstrate that starting speed from the opening moments. He won’t have to worry about getting pinned against the rails or even having too much traffic around him like those in the middle gates.

What’s more, Big Brown (2008) won from the No. 20 gate, and I’ll Have Another (2012) won from the No. 19 gate in the past seven years. So there is precedent in place to win from the outside. American Pharoah is dominant enough to do so this year. 

There were some tense moments for the American Pharoah camp Wednesday, per Tim Layden of Sports Illustrated:

The other highly regarded horse in the Derby is Dortmund, and he drew the No. 8 post.

There is nothing to complain about with that starting position for the undefeated Dortmund. He is near the middle and doesn’t have to worry about covering too much ground on the outside or getting trapped on the inside. A dominant horse with an ideal starting position is a lethal combination for the rest of the field, and Dortmund could take advantage. 

Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports suggested as much:

Both American Pharoah and Dortmund have one thing in common—trainer Bob Baffert.

Baffert has three Kentucky Derby victories, five Preakness Stakes wins and a Belmont Stakes title in his incredible career, and he has a golden opportunity to add to that with the best two horses in the field.

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Outside of those two favorites, Danzig Moon and Firing Line were the winners from Wednesday’s post position draw. The No. 5 and No. 10 gates have each produced nine winners in Kentucky Derby history, which is tied for the most of all time. California Chrome won from the No. 5 position last year.

Depending on how much credence bettors place on the historical precedent of gates, Danzig Moon and Firing Line could be two horses to watch.

Still, it is hard to ignore American Pharoah and Dortmund when predicting this race. Both avoided the most troublesome posts Wednesday and should parlay that into impressive performances at the Derby. 

Prediction: American Pharoah wins with Dortmund holding off the rest of the field for second place. Carpe Diem will make a late push despite starting on the inside from the No. 2 post to claim third place.

Information regarding the records of various post positions is courtesy of KentuckyDerby.com.