
Kentucky Derby 2015: Contenders, Entries, Odds and Lineup Analysis
The 2015 Kentucky Derby is drawing closer, so it's worth digging into the lineup to see who the top contenders are bound to be among the elite entries to grace Churchill Downs.
As hard as it is just to get into the starting gates in Louisville for the first leg of the Triple Crown, there are two clear-cut favorites. American Pharoah seems to be the horse to beat, while Dortmund is also garnering hype with six wins in as many starts.
Check out the complete list of entries below, along with a closer look at the lineup's marquee competitors thereafter.
| 1 | Ocho Ocho Ocho | Elvis Trujillo | Jim Cassidy | 50-1 |
| 2 | Carpe Diem | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 8-1 |
| 3 | Materiality | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 12-1 |
| 4 | Tencendur | Manny Franco | George Weaver | 30-1 |
| 5 | Danzig Moon | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | 30-1 |
| 6 | Mubtaahij | Christophe Soumillon | Mike de Kock | 20-1 |
| 7 | El Kabeir | Calvin Borel | John Terranova II | 30-1 |
| 8 | Dortmund | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 3-1 |
| 9 | Bolo | Rafael Bejarano | Carla Gaines | 30-1 |
| 10 | Firing Line | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghan | 12-1 |
| 11 | International Star | Miguel Mena | Mike Maker | 20-1 |
| 12 | Itsaknockout | Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher | 30-1 |
| 13 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 50-1 |
| 14 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 15-1 |
| 15 | War Story | Joe Talamo | Tom Amoss | 50-1 |
| 16 | Mr. Z | Ramon Vazquez | D. Wayne Lukas | 50-1 |
| 17 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 5-2 |
| 18 | Upstart | Jose Ortiz | Rick Violette Jr. | 15-1 |
| 19 | Far Right | Mike Smith | Ron Moquett | 30-1 |
| 20 | Frammento | Corey Nakatani | Nick Zito | 50-1 |
Lineup Analysis

An eight-length rout at the Arkansas Derby cemented American Pharoah's status as a dominant force to be reckoned with. It's not a surprise at all that he opens as the 5-2 favorite in the Run for the Roses.
But American Pharoah does have considerable ground to make up from the 17th post position (a change from initially slotting in at 18 as a result of Stanford's scratch in Gate 11). His speed shouldn't make it too much of a problem for jockey Victor Espinoza to maneuver.
On the other hand, another entry from Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, Dortmund, is closer to where all the traffic will be and has the blend of quickness and physicality to emerge more easily from the pack to start.
Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde believes Dortmund is in better position to jaunt to the winner's circle in Louisville:
Endurance will always be a question over the course of 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs, because none of these horses have traversed that far in competition before. Dortmund's strength will serve him well on the dirt track, and the top contender may well become the first undefeated winner since his sire, Big Brown.
Todd Pletcher's top entry, Carpe Diem, has an uphill battle to fight after being pinned close to the rail in the no. 2 spot. Traffic figures to be heavy as he and Materiality, another Pletcher horse, battle for positioning out of the starting gates running side by side.
Ocho Ocho Ocho is going to add to the congestion on the inside of the track, while Calvin Borel will be angling to get to the rail as soon as possible in the irons for El Kabeir. It's a scenario that could spell disaster for Pletcher's two best Derby hopes.
Away from that potentially hazardous vortex is international sensation Mubtaahij, the eight-length winner of the UAE Derby. Mubtaahij has all the tools to contend at Churchill Downs—and a nice post position to boot.
Trainer Mike de Kock seems confident in his horse's ability to save his best for last, per The Courier-Journal:
Mubtaahij should be able to stay along with whatever pace Dortmund tries to set, so it comes down to how fast he can close to the finish. Based on his runaway triumph in Dubai, it seems Mubtaahij is up to the task.
This year's field really is loaded, which is why it's even more impressive for American Pharoah and Dortmund to be considered such far-and-away favorites.
A number of dark horses are evidently capable of winning, but one of Baffert's two figures should live up to the hype and may even threaten for the Triple Crown in the coming races.


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