NASCAR at Talladega 2015: Complete Preview and Prediction for the GEICO 500

If this NASCAR season hasn't been wild enough for you yet, the GEICO 500 at Talladega should take care of that. After all, nothing keeps NASCAR on its toes like restrictor-plate racing.

So far this season, we've seen a lot of familiar faces make it to Victory Lane, with Kevin Harvick, Jimmie Johnson, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth and Kurt Busch all taking home trophies. 

Meanwhile, drivers such as Kyle Larson, Danica Patrick and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. are all still waiting for the first victories of their NASCAR Sprint Cup careers; Jeff Gordon, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Ryan Newman are still trying to punch their tickets back to the Chase.

Talladega is a great place for surprises, so you'll have to tune in Sunday to see if the status quo changes.

Here's a preview, along with some predictions for the GEICO 500.

By the Numbers: Talladega Superspeedway

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GEICO 500

Place: Talladega Superspeedway

Date: Sunday, May 3

Time: 1 p.m. ET

TV: Fox, 1 p.m. ET

Radio: Motor Racing Network, SiriusXM Channel 90

Distance: 188 laps, 500 miles 

Defending race winner: Denny Hamlin

Youngest Talladega winner: Bobby Hillin Jr. (22 years, 1 month, 22 days)

Oldest Talladega winner: Harry Gant (51 years, 3 months, 26 days)

Defending pole winner: Brian Scott

Youngest Talladega pole winner: Brian Scott (26 years, 3 months, 22 days)

Oldest Talladega pole winner: Mark Martin (April 23, 2011—52 years, 9 months, 14 days)

Track Notes

• Thirty-eight drivers have Coors Light poles at Talladega, led by Bill Elliott (8); Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with three.
• There have been 91 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Talladega Superspeedway, one NSCS event in 1969 and two races per year since 1970.
• Forty-four different drivers have won at Talladega Superspeedway, led by Dale Earnhardt (10); Gordon leads all active drivers with six.
• Thirteen of the 91 (14.2 percent) NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at Talladega have been won from the Coors Light pole. Gordon (2007) is the only active driver to be able to accomplish the feat.
• Dale Earnhardt leads the series in top-10 finishes at Talladega with 27; Gordon leads all active drivers with 19.
• Jimmie Johnson leads all active drivers in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in average starting position at Talladega with a 10.192.
• Clint Bowyer leads all active drivers in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in average finishing position at Talladega with a 14.444.

Statistics courtesy of NASCAR media relations.

Key Storylines

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How Will the New Qualifying Format Go Over?

As you might remember, the qualifying at the first restrictor-plate track of the season in Daytona did not go smoothly. In fact, the chaos led to a lot of the drivers—most notably Clint Bowyer—publicly criticizing NASCAR.

So NASCAR revamped the qualifying format for Talladega. It is being reported that the cars will be released at intervals, so while there might be more than one car on the track at a time, they won't be bunched together. While it might not be as dramatic as group qualifying, hopefully this will allow for a smoother start to the weekend.

Will Kurt Busch Get His First Win at Talladega?

Kurt Busch found himself in the winner's circle for the first time in 2015 last week at Richmond, and now the 36-year-old will try and get the first win of his career at the Talladega Superspeedway. Busch has 28 starts at Talladega and yet he has zero victories, which is a record among active drivers.

Is Jeff Gordon Poised for his First Win of 2015?

Yes, we're going to keep asking this question until it happens. After all, this is Gordon's goodbye tour, and there is a lot of anticipation to see No. 24 make it to Victory Lane and safely into the Chase.

Gordon has certainly had success at Talladega in the past—he has six wins on the track, although none since he won both the spring and fall races in 2007. 

Can Talladega Produce Another Surprise Winner?

NASCAR is truly an any-given-Sunday sport, but that phrase particularly rings true on the restrictor-plate tracks of Talladega and Daytona, where the reduced speeds and propensity for wrecks even out the playing field a bit. That was certainly true two years ago when David Ragan won this event.

However, looking at the past few years, Ragan is really the only recent surprise winner at Talladega. Denny Hamlin is the defending champion of the Geico 500, and Brad Keselowski won the fall race. We'll have to see if this race provides an opportunity for one of the Sprint Cup's middle class to get into Victory Lane or if the rich will merely get richer at Talladega.

Drivers to Watch

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David Ragan

David Ragan's name has been in the news more than usual this week, because it was announced that Ragan will switch to Michael Waltrip Racing and drive the No. 55 car after this weekend. Ragan has been filling in for an injured Kyle Busch in the No. 18 for Joe Gibbs Racing, and now the teenager Erik Jones will take over that spot.

So Sunday will be Ragan's final time (presumably) in the green M&M car, and it's at a race that he won two years ago. Keep an eye on the veteran.

Clint Bowyer

Ragan's future teammate at Michael Waltrip Racing, Clint Bowyer, is another driver to watch at Talladega. Bowyer has two career wins at Talladega and is always a threat at the restrictor-plate tracks. He has two top-10 finishes this season: one at the first restrictor-plate race of the season, the Daytona 500, and the other last week at Richmond.

Jamie McMurray

Jamie McMurray is quietly having a very good season—the No. 1 car has three top 10s: a second-place finish at Phoenix, a sixth in Texas and a fourth last week at Richmond. It's been over a year since he last won a race, but that win did come at Talladega. 

Jeff Gordon

Jeff Gordon has four wins at the Geico 500 and six wins at Talladega, making him one of the most decorated Talladega drivers in NASCAR history, only trailing Dale Earnhardt's 10 wins at the Superspeedway.

Gordon had a rough start to the season but is currently on a streak of six straight top-10 wins. It's only a matter of time before he finds Victory Lane.

Kurt Busch

There's certainly an argument to be made that last week's champion, Kurt Busch, belongs in the next slide with the favorites, but considering he hasn't won back-to-back races since 2002 and hasn't ever won at Talladega, I'm going to keep him here. You can't count Busch out the way he's been driving since he returned from his suspension, but Talladega is not where he's the most dangerous.

Favorites

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Kevin Harvick

The defending Sprint Cup champion is simply having a ridiculous start to the season—there have been nine races so far, and Harvick has finished in the top two in seven of them, with two victories. Talladega isn't his best track, as he only has one career win, but the way he's driving right now, he's a favorite wherever he goes.

Joey Logano

Joey Logano wasn't known as a great restrictor-plate driver until he won the Daytona 500 to start the season. Now, the No. 22 has to be seen as a threat at Talladega.

Brad Keselowski

Logano's teammate, Brad Keselowski, loves Talladega as well. The Penske driver won the fall race at Talladega in dramatic fashion last year to stay alive in the Chase, and he has three wins at Talladega in his career, including his first Sprint Cup win in 2009. This track suits his aggressive style well.

Denny Hamlin

Denny Hamlin is the defending champion of this race, and there's no reason why the Joe Gibbs Racing driver can't find his way back to Victory Lane this year. He has had a good season so far, highlighted by a fourth-place finish at the Daytona 500 and a win at Martinsville.

Jimmie Johnson

Is there ever a race where Jimmie Johnson isn't one of the favorites? The guy is just as steady as can be—even when he looks out of it, he still finds his way to a top-five finish. This year Johnson already has two victories, and he's finished in the top three in his last three races. He has two wins on this track.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. 

We all know that Dale Earnhardt Jr. loves the restrictor-plate tracks, particularly the superspeedway at Talladega, where he has five career victories. He'll be hungry to get back into Victory Lane, considering he hasn't made it back since 2004.

Dark-Horse Pick

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When it comes down to it, I think that Jamie McMurray has the best shot to be a "surprise" winner at Talladega this week—if you can even consider it a surprise considering the way he's been driving and the fact that he has two wins already at Talladega.

Last week at Richmond, McMurray was the driver who had the best shot at running down Kurt Busch throughout the second half of the race, even though he finished fourth. 

With a sixth-place and fourth-place finish in his last three starts, and a second-place finish in Phoenix, McMurray has been sniffing Victory Lane already this season.

"We're getting the results of kind of where we've run," McMurray said after Richmond, as reported by Mike Hembree of USA Today. "That was one of my goals in the offseason—to finish better than I run in the race. That's hard to do. When I look at Kevin [Harvick} and Jimmie Johnson and a lot of those guys, they tend to do that."

The No. 1 car has the speed and the experience—he just needs to avoid catastrophe at Talladega and finish strong. I have a hunch that he'll be in the mix at the end, and he has a good shot to get a much-needed win.

And the Winner Is: Dale Earnhardt Jr.

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It's absolutely ridiculous that Dale Earnhardt Jr. hasn't won at Talladega since 2004, and I predict that we will see that drought snapped this week at the Geico 500.

Junior has more wins at Talladega than he does at any other track, with five victories coming in seven starts at the track between 2001-2004. The last restrictor-place race he won was the Daytona 500 in 2014.

Now, Earnhardt has more motivation than ever to get to Victory Lane—he's still trying to get his first victory under new crew chief Greg Ives, and therefore he still hasn't secured a spot in the Chase. 

However, it's not like Junior has had a bad season. Far from it. He already has five top 10s and four top fives this season; the speed is there, now he just has to get a victory to get a bit of his mojo back.

Talladega, with all of its fond memories, is the ideal place for that to happen. Junior will be ready to put any 2015 doubts to rest with his sixth win at the Talladega Superspeedway.