
Realistic Draft Trade Possibilities for the Green Bay Packers
In the first four rounds of the 2015 NFL draft, there are already 11 draft picks that have changed hands from their original teams. By the end of Day 2, that number should be more than doubled.
When studying the draft class in the scope of the Green Bay Packers, there are five realistic trade situations I can see involving the squad in the first two rounds. Some involve trading up some slots; some involve the team dropping down some slots. One even includes a pick-for-player trade.
Either way, general manager Ted Thompson loves moving around and going up to bat more often, not necessarily earlier. The team seems to approach the draft with the idea that it's going to miss on some picks, but that the more it swings, the more there's a chance of a hit.
For Packers fans, this is their offseason. For the most part, the Thompson era hasn't come with many splash free agents. Instead, their team is developed through almost exclusively the draft, including weekend trades.
Packers Trade Nos. 30 and 94 to Move Up for a Cornerback
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If you talk to even the most casual Packers fan, you'll quickly find out which positions they need addressed in the draft. They have two massive holes, one being at outside cornerback and the other being at inside linebacker.
Sam Shields has one starting job lined up, but the other spot is up in the air. Tramon Williams and Davon House, last year's second and third outside cornerbacks, both left in free agency. Micah Hyde and Casey Hayward are still on the roster, but they're better suited as slot cornerbacks, with Hyde also being a hybrid safety.
The only boundary back on their roster at the end of the season, other than Shields, who is still on the roster is Demetri Goodson, a second-year player from Baylor. As a 26-year-old when the season starts, Goodson has little experience at his developed age, which makes him hard to trust as a starter in 2015.
According to Play The Draft, Trae Waynes of Michigan State, Marcus Peters of Washington and Kevin Johnson of Wake Forest have over/under draft stocks of above 30. On paper, the Packers would have to move up to secure them.
With only two major needs, Green Bay may be able to afford a third-rounder to move into a position in the first round to get a sure thing in the defensive backfield. There should be linebackers later down in the draft, as premier positions, like cornerback, usually have "runs" before non-premier positions, like off-the-ball linebacker.
Packers Trade Nos. 62 and 129 to Move Up for a Linebacker
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For over five years, A.J. Hawk and Brad Jones have been the starting inside linebackers in Green Bay. This offseason, both of them were cut. Sam Barrington took control of one linebacking position, but like cornerback, the slot opposite him has several questions.
One would guess that Clay Matthews III, the Packers' edge defender who flexed inside last season, will see some reps in 2015, but he probably won't be a base player considering how large his contract is compared to other inside linebackers in the NFL. Carl Bradford, who converted inside after being drafted in the fourth round in 2014, is an option, but he's unproven.
When looking at the over/unders on Play The Draft, the only inside linebacker near a "value" selection would be Eric Kendricks of UCLA. The Packers' first pick is 30th overall, and Kendricks' stock is currently valued at 32.7.
The issue is that the 62nd pick might be too late to get Green Bay into the first linebacker run. After Kendricks, Benardrick McKinney of Mississippi State, Stephone Anthony of Clemson and Denzel Perryman of Miami are the only linebackers considered to be top-100 players. They are listed at 43.6, 50.1 and 53.1, respectively.
So, would it be worth it on the Packers' end to give up a fourth-round pick to move up 10 or so spots to make sure one of those four linebackers is in green and yellow next season? On paper, it makes sense.
Trade No. 62 for Mychal Kendricks
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Mychal Kendricks might be the odd man out in Philadelphia. DeMeco Ryans re-signed with the squad on a two-year deal worth $7.5 million this offseason, and the squad traded for former Rookie of the Year candidate Kiko Alonso, whom Chip Kelly coached at Oregon.
With Kendricks being the linebacker with starting talent but mired in a crowded depth chart, the inside linebacker could be looking for a new home on draft weekend. The Eagles even signed Brad Jones, the Packers' former starting inside linebacker, so there's some depth on the roster even if Kendricks is shipped.
If Green Bay misses on the inside linebacker run, with the top four prospects off the board before the 62nd pick, Kendricks is the perfect parachute. Thompson can rip the cord, sending a second-round pick to Philadelphia for a talent they can't use in base defense looks, completely avoiding what could be a violent crash if the squad doesn't address the inside linebacker position on the first two days of the draft.
Punt Their 1st-Round Pick to 2016
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One option that isn't being talked about enough for the Packers is that they may just ship off their first pick if they can't find someone worthy of the selection. Too often, people ask, "What's Green Bay going to do if a top cornerback isn't on the board?"
The 30th overall pick is probably too early to take a linebacker in the draft, so you'd think they'd go with the best player available, but this class isn't very deep at the top. Instead, it's deeper in the middle rounds. So, if you're Green Bay, why don't you just trade for a third- or fourth-round pick and gain another first-round pick in 2016?
The selection is almost guaranteed to be a higher one than the 30th overall slot, and if the team doesn't feel comfortable with investing in that pick in a cornerback, the prospect taken probably wouldn't have had a Day 1 impact anyway. Taking a cornerback in Round 2 and rolling with the current linebacking unit isn't the worst option out there, especially if you acquire enough assets to land a star linebacker like UCLA's Myles Jack next year with the pick.
Packers Trade No. 30 to Move into the 2nd Round
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As I've discussed, the Packers are in a poor spot at the 30th overall pick. They can either pray the tail end of the second-tier corners are still on the board or start off the run on inside linebackers, who are generally looked upon as third-tier players.
In an attempt to find value, they could just move into the second. The end of the first round provides some positives for teams. A draft pick selected in the first 32 slots has a fifth-year option, meaning a team could get an extra season out of him before having to sign said player to a large contract.
That is a benefit to a team choosing a high-upside premium position player. Last year, the Minnesota Vikings chose Teddy Bridgewater of Louisville with the last pick of the first round, trading up to get that fifth-year option. It wouldn't be a shocker to see a team do the same in the 30 slot this draft.
Instead of starting the run on inside linebackers, Green Bay can slide into the next round and pick up some extra draft picks, as Thompson loves to do. There, he can find actual tier-based value on some of these inside linebackers, who could start 16 games for the squad.
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