Kentucky Derby Odds 2015: Picks and Predictions Based on Recent Betting Lines
Bettors seem to want the next big thing at the 2015 Kentucky Derby.
One year removed from California Chrome's captivating Triple Crown push, more eyeballs than usual are on the sport, which means more wallets, purses and other money-carrying apparatuses are open to throwing coin at the big event.
The result is an ever-changing set of lines, although it's worth noting two things remain the same so far no matter what—American Pharoah and Dortmund are the heavy favorites.
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Still, anything can happen at Churchill Downs, so let's take a look at the latest odds and then nail down some picks and predictions.
2015 Kentucky Derby Lineup and Odds
| American Pharoah | 13-5 | Bob Baffert |
| Dortmund | 4-1 | Bob Baffert |
| Carpe Diem | 15-2 | Todd Pletcher |
| Mubtaahij | 10-1 | Mike de Kock |
| Materiality | 14-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Firing Line | 16-1 | Simon Callaghan |
| Frosted | 16-1 | Kiaran McLaughlin |
| Upstart | 20-1 | Rick Violette Jr. |
| International Star | 20-1 | Mike Maker |
| El Kabeir | 33-1 | John Terranova II |
| Far Right | 33-1 | Ron Moquett |
| Itsaknockout | 40-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Bolo | 40-1 | Carla Gaines |
| Danzig Moon | 40-1 | Mark Casse |
| Ocho Ocho Ocho | 40-1 | Jim Cassidy |
| Mr. Z | 40-1 | D. Wayne Lukas |
| Keen Ice | 50-1 | Dale Romans |
| Tencendur | 66-1 | George Weaver |
All Kentucky Derby odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
Kentucky Derby Picks
| Win | American Pharoah |
| Place | Dortmund |
| Show | Carpe Diem |
Predictions
Frosted Puts on a Show
No, not the animated movie with Kristen Bell and the killer soundtrack.
That's Frozen, this is Frosted—a Kiaran McLaughlin-trained colt with all the ingredients necessary to make an epic run at Churchill Downs.
Frosted seemed on the right path before an implosion at the Fountain of Youth Derby in February resulting in a fourth-place finish. Not satisfied, McLaughlin changed up everything, including the jockey up top.
Now Joel Rosario, 2013 Kentucky Derby winner, rests atop. Together, the duo stormed to a triumph at the Wood Memorial and now have their sights on the Kentucky Derby.
For his part, though, McLaughlin offers cautionary words about the deep field.
"It might be the toughest Derby that we've had in quite a few years," he said, per Richard Rosenblatt of The Associated Press. "I feel like 10 or 12 horses can certainly win. So many of them are just so talented. It seems like one of the most talented groups of 3-year-olds that I've seen."
Still, Frosted's on a roll, and the quote can go both ways—Rosario has a strong chance in such an open field. Look for Frosted's newfound form to score just outside of the top three.
Carpe Diem Almost Pulls off the Upset
The trainer battle between Todd Pletcher and Bob Baffert seems a bit lopsided this year.
Pletcher's biggest asset at Churchill Downs is Carpe Diem, although it would be wise not to sleep on Materiality.
Carpe Diem last took the top slot at the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes, although a dominant performance at the Tampa Bay Derby is what has many abuzz. Gayle Guyardo of WFLA.com breaks it down:
"Fans compare Carpe Diem to another horse that took home the top prize at Tampa Bay Downs in 2007. “Street Sense” beat “Any Given Saturday” in what's described as one of the most exciting races in Tampa Bay Downs history.
Street Sense went on to with the Kentucky Derby, and the hope is Carpe Diem will do the same.
"
There's no doubt Carpe Diem has the sheer talent to contend at Churchill Downs, especially with his steady maturation even calming him before the gates open.
Try not to forget Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez, who won the race in 2011, will be atop Carpe Diem, too.
With a legendary trainer doing the prep work and a jockey of similar standing up top, Carpe Diem will give both Baffert horses a serious run for their money down the stretch.
American Pharoah Fends Off Dortmund
There's a reason neither American Pharoah nor Dortmund have budged much in the betting department.
Dortmund is a winner in all six of his races and sired by Big Brown, a name folks will remember as another near-Triple Crown winner. Jockey Martin Garcia will be up top, too, making for a dynamic duo capable of demolishing the field if they put on a perfect race.
There's little doubt Dortmund will run to expectations if the Las Vegas lines are any sign.
Baffert better hope so, too, because he stands a chance at history, as Jay Privman of Daily Racing Form reveals:
American Pharoah seems a sure thing, too.
The Zayat Stables horse has been unstoppable this year, blowing away the field at the Rebel Stakes in March and the Arkansas Derby earlier this month. Further adding to what is by far the field's best horse is the addition of jockey Victor Espinoza, who rode California Chrome last year.
Dortmund may perhaps prove more game even than most realize, but American Pharoah is downright the best competitor in the field and will be able to hold off the others down the stretch, beginning another "what if?" storyline surrounding the Triple Crown.
Stats and information via KentuckyDerby.com unless otherwise specified.
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