Mayweather vs. Pacquiao Prop Bets: Examining Early-Week Odds and Lines
So begins one of the most interesting weeks in Las Vegas' boxing history.
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao, a superfight for the ages, is quite the event for Las Vegas and bettors worldwide. It's perhaps the most anticipated bout of all time, but also one of the riskiest.
For some, it's easy to take Mayweather, or "Money," to the bank—his defensive style hasn't failed him yet. For others, Pacquiao's offense from awkward angles is the answer to the riddle.
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No matter which side of the fence bettors land on, it's important to keep up with the latest movements and details surrounding the fight. Below is a look at the latest along with some odds advice.
Mayweather vs. Pacquiao Fight Odds
| Mayweather (4-9) | Over 11.5 (4-13) | Yes (1-3) |
| Pacquiao (7-4) | Under 11.5 (43-20) | No (23-10) |
Odds via Odds Shark as of April 27 at 7 p.m. ET.
Analyzing Top Early Bets
Over 11.5 Rounds (4-13) and Fight Goes the Distance (1-3)
Too easy.
These two go hand-in-hand, and it's easy cash for anyone who knows about these two fighters. Mayweather's last five fights have gone the distance. Eight of Pacquiao's last nine have done the same, the exception being when he got caught and bit the canvas, capping a two-fight losing streak.
It's easy to fall into the trap of thinking Pacquiao can end this one early. He's destined to be the aggressor, after all, and trainer Freddie Roach made it sound like his fighter will stay on the offensive when speaking with Sports Illustrated's Greg Bishop:
"If you jab or feint him, and he steps back, you have a huge advantage to score. But you have to score, and you have to get out really quickly. Mayweather will throw back. But he won’t counter until you stop. Some fighters will just keep throwing at him. My fighter shouldn’t. In and out. Clean combinations.
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Another trap: Most ways sliced, Pacquiao is always more active. ESPN Stats & Info breaks it down:
None of this means Pacquiao will end the fight early, though. He hasn't scored a knockout or technical knockout victory since 2009, while Mayweather last did in 2011.
This one will go the distance, because Mayweather wants it to go the distance.
Canelo Alvarez wanted to end things early and didn't come close. Marcos Maidana attempted the same strategy twice and still wound up losing in rough fashion on the scorecards. Feel free to add in that Maidana was perhaps much heavier than Pacquiao will be in the superfight.
This one's going to the scorecards.
Floyd "Money" Mayweather Jr. by Decision or Technical Decision (5-7)
Mayweather doesn't lose on the scorecards.
Look at Mayweather's first fight with Maidana, just for fun. It's the fight many were quick to cry foul about because Money was always on the defensive and Maidana never took his foot off the gas. The apparent discrepancy and public distaste for the result birthed the rematch.
But look at the scorecard. Maidana threw 858 punches and landed just 26 percent of them. Mayweather threw just 246 but landed 54 percent of them, per BoxRec.com.
This is the problem for Pacquiao—he can outwork Mayweather by throwing all the punches he wants, but if he's not connecting, the judges won't just favor the guy who looked better from a momentum standpoint.
Granted, Pacquiao comes from odd angles and fights out of a southpaw stance, but to suggest he will find knockout power for the first time in years or stick in long enough to land a significant amount of his strikes seems a long shot.
Mayweather's too quick and knows, even as Roach's comments show, that Pacquiao won't want to stand in and get caught with counters. It won't be a crowd-pleasing style, but Money touts the perfect style to counteract Pacquiao's offense.
There's a reason for the construction of the current odds. It's not the best payout, but anything other than Mayweather by decision or technical decision is akin to tossing the bills in a fire.
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