Kentucky Derby 2015 Odds: Sleepers with Most Win, Place and Show Potential
Bob Baffert's American Pharaoh and Dortmund are the favorites to win the 2015 Kentucky Derby, but this is horse racing, and anything can happen. There's still some attention that must be paid to the horses with longer odds.
Per Odds Shark, here are the latest odds for the May 2 race.
- American Pharoah 2-1
- Dortmund 9-2
- Carpe Diem 7-1
- Mubtaahij 12-1
- Materiality 14-1
- Firing Line 16-1
- Frosted 16-1
- Upstart 20-1
- International Star 25-1
- El Kabeir 33-1
- Far Right 33-1
- Itsaknockout 40-1
- Bolo 40-1
- Danzig Moon 40-1
- Tencendur 40-1
- Ocho Ocho Ocho 50-1
- Mr. Z 50-1
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The following are three sleepers to consider as the race approaches.
Firing Line 16-1
When looking at the horses without the best odds, the conversation about legitimate sleepers has to start with Arnold Zetcher's Firing Line. Trained by Simon Callaghan and jockeyed by the legendary Gary Stevens, Firing Line has what it takes to not only finish in the money, but to also win the first leg of the Triple Crown.
He hasn't finished lower than second in any of his last five races. That includes a win at the Sunland Derby in his last outing on March 22. He's run second behind Dortmund twice in that span, thus his slightly longer odds. Both of the narrow losses came on shorter tracks than what he'll run on at Churchill Downs. There's something to the thought that on a longer track, he might be able to run his rival down.
Even if he doesn't win, Firing Line has to be considered a strong contender to finish in the top three.
Frosted 16-1
Kiaran P. McLaughlin's horse won the prestigious Wood Memorial in his last run over a field that featured Derby participants El Kabeir and Tencendur. Frosted had little trouble holding off his foes in that race. He won by two lengths.
Considering the race took place a little less than a month prior to the Derby, McLaughlin won't have to be concerned with a layoff.
Per HorseRacingNation.com, the trainer seemed pleased with his horse after he engaged in his final Derby drills:
"We had a great racetrack today. We wanted to see a maintenance work, and we’re all systems go. He worked great, went in 1:01, and it was very similar to last week. We’re very happy with it. We didn’t want to see any changes, and we’re just happy to keep seeing the same, seeing him work well and within himself. He’s gone perfect.
"
According to McLaughlin's website, his horses have finished in the money 54.8 percent of the time this season. As the trainer for a horse that has already proven superior to some portion of the field in taking the Wood Memorial, McLaughlin's horse is one to watch for a third-place finish.
Materiality 14-1
With three straight wins, including a victory at the Grade 1 Florida Derby, Todd A. Pletcher's Materiality ought to stir bettors a little. There's something to be said for a horse that hasn't lost a race in three consecutive outings. There's even more weight added to the concept when one of the races he won was a Grade 1 event with Derby contenders in the field, such as McLaughlin's Upstart.
Materiality beat Upstart by 1 ½ lengths. While the winner's time of 1:52.30 might not wow experts, Materiality might just be the type of horse that runs at the pace necessary to best the field.
With his current streak, who could argue with that logic? If you're looking for a sleeper that can actually win the Derby, Materiality might be the best bet.
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