Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: Odds and Round-by-Round Predictions for Superfight
There’s a fight this weekend in Las Vegas.
You might have heard about it. One guy has not lost a competitive fight since the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta, and the other just happens to be a Filipino congressman who’s won sanctioning body world title belts in seven of 10 weight classes from 112 (flyweight) to 154 pounds (super welterweight).
By the way, the tickets at the MGM Grand sold out in a minute.
And the high-definition pay-per-view is going for just a coin less than a C-note.
Yeah, it’s that big.
In fact, one of its promoters—Top Rank founder and consigliere Bob Arum—suggests it’ll take a place alongside some of the great bouts he’s worked since breaking into the business in the mid-1960s.
“I think this one will even resonate more than those great events, because, in those great events—whether it was Ali-Frazier or Hagler-Hearns or Leonard-Hearns—those all involved American fighters,” he said. “Now we have, for the first time in a huge, huge mega-event, a fighter from a country as exotic as the Philippines. I think that is part of what makes this such a huge event.”
Even in welterweight boxing terms alone, it’s pretty significant.
Floyd Mayweather Jr. has held the WBC’s share of the world’s 147-pound kingdom since dropping a distracted Victor Ortiz in 2011, and he added the WBA’s slice of the pie with a bruising (in spots) majority decision over Marcos Maidana on the first Saturday of May 2014 at the MGM Grand.
In one fight since, last September, he defended both straps with a unanimous nod over Maidana.
Manny Pacquiao, meanwhile, has been enjoying a second run as WBO champ since retaking the belt from Tim Bradley three weeks before Mayweather-Maidana I. He’s also fought once since—bouncing Chris Algieri off the canvas six times in a mismatched rout five days before Thanksgiving.
Mayweather and Pacquiao have been linked since the latter became a full-time welterweight in 2009, but the fight never occurred for reasons that ranged from drug tests to purse splits to personality conflicts.
Nevertheless, for those who suggest it would have been better in 2010 than now, Arum disagrees.
“It wouldn't have been anywhere near the level that it is now. That's my opinion,” he said.
“The interest and so forth. Remember, some people don't follow sports at all. And of people who follow sports, some people don't follow boxing. But they're all following this. Mayweather and Pacquiao were known names five years ago, but not the way they are today.”
Date: Saturday, May 2, 2015
Time: HBO/Showtime joint PPV starts at 9 p.m. ET; main event after 11 p.m. ET
Venue: The MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas
Odds: Mayweather (-225), Pacquiao (+175)
Note: Odds provided by Odds Shark and correct as of April 29, 2015 at 3 p.m. ET; subject to change
Round 1
1 of 11
Maidana didn't ultimately win the fight, but what the Argentine might have provided in his initial rumble with Mayweather last spring was a blueprint for the activity level it will take to make Money truly uncomfortable in the ring. Maidana burst from his corner and threw no fewer than 100 shots in the opening three minutes—which he won on all three scorecards—and set a first-round bar that Pacquiao figures to try to jump.
10-9 Pacquiao
Round 2
2 of 11
Freddie Roach claimed throughout the buildup to May 2 that the biggest difference between Mayweather circa 2010 and Mayweather today is the spring that's supposedly no longer in his step. Pacquiao threw 41 punches in Round 2 against Bradley in their rematch last April and then boosted the output to 51 in the second frame of the Algieri fight in November. Assuming things are going to plan, he'll be in the 75 range here.
10-9 Pacquiao
Round 3
3 of 11
Mayweather isn't considered a master of in-ring adjustments for nothing. The general consensus is that he was behind through the first several rounds against several past opponents—including Zab Judah, Oscar De La Hoya and Maidana the first time around—before making subtle changes that ultimately led to success. He'll need to get to it earlier than later against Pacquiao in order to avoid falling into too deep of an activity hole.
10-9 Mayweather
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Round 4
4 of 11
One of the reasons Pacquiao has had problems with Juan Manuel Marquez in each of their four meetings—not even considering the fact that he was knocked cold in the last one—is that the Mexican has been able to take a habitually frenetic fighter and leave him wary of counterpunches in his direction. That's been Mayweather's modus operandi for years, too, and his establishing himself Saturday will hinge on landing momentum-stemming replies.
10-9 Mayweather
Round 5
5 of 11
By every account, Pacquiao fought a perfect fight in his 2008 star turn against De La Hoya. He moved both in and out and side to side, strafing the Golden Boy from every angle with combinations instead of single, easily returnable shots. So long as Mayweather has gotten himself back into the fight at this point, expect Roach to remind his man of the initial battle plan, which involves perpetually smart aggression, not just aggression.
10-9 Pacquiao
Round 6
6 of 11
The general fan/observer consensus is that the puncher in Saturday's fight is Pacquiao, and that Mayweather's clearest path to success is more strategic than violent. An expert on the level of Roy Jones Jr., however, disagrees. In fact, the former four-division champ thinks Floyd will be forced to rely on power that no other foe has made necessary. A game-changing shot to support Jones' theory would be well-timed here.
10-8 Mayweather
Round 7
7 of 11
Once Mayweather turns the tide in fights, it typically doesn't turn back. He struggled early against Ricky Hatton before controlling the back half of their fight, and he did the same thing on the scorecards in aforementioned clashes with De La Hoya, Judah and even Maidana. According to CBSSports.com, he was reported to have been working particularly well to the body in the gym to prepare for Pacquiao, and that'll be evident as he pulls out in front.
10-9 Mayweather
Round 8
8 of 11
Chances are good that no matter how effective Mayweather is, whether he's throwing heavy shots or playing his usual countering role, he'll not be more active than Pacquiao, which makes precision vital. Money's in-round connect rates from Rounds 8 through 11 in the second fight with Maidana were 65, 72, 42 and 42 percent, respectively, which was effective enough to blunt the Argentine's smothering style.
10-9 Mayweather
Round 9
9 of 11
It hasn't always been the case where Pacquiao is the stalker in a fight while his opponent tries to score and avoid contact at the same time. In fact, he was the much smaller man in a catchweight match with Antonio Margarito and spent much of his time confounding a pursuing foe. So, should Mayweather indeed take on the role of pursuer—a la Leonard-Hearns I—the Filipino is quite capable of boxing and moving to stay competitive.
10-9 Pacquiao
Round 10
10 of 11
After five-plus years of pursuing, posturing and postponing, the end to the prolonged Mayweather-Pacquiao story will finally arrive in Round 10. Having confounded the Filipino with defense early on and gradually established himself as the aggressor in the middle rounds, Mayweather will hurt his man with a leaping lead left hook in the session's first minute, score a knockdown shortly thereafter and ultimately prompt a wave-off from referee Kenny Bayless in the final 30 seconds before the bell.
Final Wrap
11 of 11
It happened. And now it's over.
The fight whose run-up entranced a generation turned out to be a good scrap that satisfied a cross-section from the hardcore fan to the red-carpet celebrity, which will prompt some calls for a return to the cash register in a few months. Mayweather will deliver the typical "I'm going to talk it over with my team" speech in the aftermath, making discussion of a triumphant retirement ride an instant sports-radio topic.
Pacquiao, meanwhile, has familiar and comfortable ground on which to pursue reinvention—namely the 140-pound ranks—where he can tangle with a fellow Roach client in Ruslan Provodnikov, a superstar in waiting in Terence Crawford or any number of others who'd be all too happy to serve as a rebound companion.
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