Kentucky Derby Field 2015: Triple Crown Predictions for All Horses

The Triple Crown has become one of the toughest achievements in sports, and while the drought could very well continue in 2015, there are undoubtedly a few contenders with the ability to win the three biggest events in horse racing in succession.

It has been 37 years since Affirmed took the Triple Crown in 1978, and while there have been several close calls since then, no horse has managed to seal the deal. That has caused many to question if it is even possible in this era of horse racing, but that won't stop the Kentucky Derby winner from going for it in all likelihood.

With the 141st running of the Kentucky Derby on the horizon, here is a full rundown of the final field, predictions for how the race will play out and further analysis regarding the most realistic Triple Crown candidates.

Kentucky Derby 2015 Lineup and Predictions

Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer
2	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy
3	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher
4	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher
5	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver
6	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse
7	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock
8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert
9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines
10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan
11	International Star (Scratched)	Miguel Mena	Mike Maker
12	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher
13	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans
14	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin
15	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss
16	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas
17	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert
18	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.
19	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett
20	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito

Position	Horse
1	Dortmund
2	American Pharoah
3	Materiality
4	Carpe Diem
5	Upstart
6	Mubtaahij
7	Firing Line
8	Frosted
9	Far Right
10	Itsaknockout
11	Ocho Ocho Ocho
12	Mr. Z
13	War Story
14	Bolo
15	Keen Ice
16	Danzig Moon
17	Frammento
18	Tencendur

Likeliest Triple Crown Candidates

Dortmund

From a physical perspective, no horse in the Kentucky Derby field is more impressive or imposing than Dortmund. The undefeated colt has been nothing short of perfect during the build toward the Run for the Roses, and there isn't much reason to believe that will change.

His sheer size and intimidation factor give him an advantage over the other competitors. According to Tim Sullivan of The Courier-Journal, Dortmund is about as big as they come in terms of thoroughbred race horses:

That means he should have the edge in terms of strength and stride power. In addition to that, trainer Bob Baffert seems to believe Dortmund simply has the look of a horse destined for greatness, per Fred Cowgill of WLKY.com:

"

I remember one of my owners wanted to run against him in a stakes race. He said, 'How would you compare my horse to Dortmund?' I said, 'If you were here, outside my office, and I brought Dortmund out, you'd say "Why are we running against him?"' He's just a big, tall horse through the strides, that's why. He has speed. He's fast. He's really, really fast.

"

Perhaps the one concern attached to Dortmund is stamina. While his size is helpful in certain ways, it could also cause him to fade down the stretch.

That hasn't occurred yet, though, and it figures to be a bigger issue in a longer race such as the Belmont Stakes. With that in mind, look for Dortmund to take the first two legs, much like a similar horse in the form of Big Brown in 2008, only to fall short in the Belmont.

American Pharoah

Garry Jones/Associated Press

If Baffert isn't able to pick up the win with Dortmund, he has another top candidate in the form of American Pharoah. In fact, the betting public seems to believe that he is the horse to beat in the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

American Pharoah isn't undefeated like Dortmund, as he lost his first race, but he is 4-0 since then and has undoubtedly established himself as one of the best three-year-olds in the world.

In fact, American Pharoah has so much ability and potential that Ramsey Farm breeder and owner Ken Ramsey believes he could score a runaway victory at Churchill Downs, according to J.J. Hysell of The Courier-Journal:

American Pharoah turned in a fantastic performance at the Arkansas Derby, and even though he had to exert a great deal of effort, Baffert feels as though his horse is fresh as a daisy, per Jonathan Lintner of The Courier-Journal:

Baffert's comments suggest that stamina shouldn't be an issue for American Pharoah, which could be in stark contrast to chief rival Dortmund.

Even so, Dortmund should have enough to hold him off in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. American Pharoah is a massive threat to win the Belmont, though, and he will accomplish that feat provided he is entered.

It will be interesting to see if Baffert tries to hold one of his top horses out of the third leg if one of them is going for the Triple Crown, but that is a decision the owners will ultimately have to make.

Carpe Diem

Garry Jones/Associated Press

He may not be receiving quite as much hype as Dortmund or American Pharoah, but it can be argued that Carpe Diem would be the favorite to win in most other Kentucky Derby fields. This one happens to be extremely strong, but he is still a contender regardless.

Carpe Diem has won four of his five races, including victories at the Blue Grass Stakes and Tampa Bay Derby. He also finished second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last year, which means he has as much big-race experience as any other horse in the Derby.

Although it remains to be seen if it will translate to success at Churchill Downs, WinStar Farm president Elliott Walden is always entertained when Carpe Diem takes the track, according to the Lexington Herald-Leader:

Trainer Todd Pletcher has four cracks at a Kentucky Derby win, but most would probably agree that Carpe Diem is his best hope.

While Carpe Diem has all the makings of a horse who will be very much in the mix in all three Triple Crown races provided he runs in them, he has the misfortune of going up against a pair of elite, Baffert-trained colts.

Because of that, Carpe Diem will come out of Triple Crown season without a win to show for it.

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