Kentucky Derby 2015 Odds: Latest Lines for Top Contenders and Dark Horses
The biggest event in American horse racing will take place at Churchill Downs in Louisville. At this point, American Pharoah is the clear favourite for the 2015 Kentucky Derby.
Ridden by Victor Espinoza, American Pharoah is a unanimous pick among the experts to earn the $2 million purse. Yet there is still the odd dissenting voice regarding Pharoah's chances.
Here are the latest lines for this 141st derby:
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| Horse | Trainer | Odds Shark | Watchmaker |
| American Pharoah | Bob Baffert | 2-1 | 7-2 |
| Dortmund | Bob Baffert | 9-2 | 4-1 |
| Carpe Diem | Todd Pletcher | 7-1 | 10-1 |
| Mubtaahij | Mike de Kock | 12-1 | 12-1 |
| Materiality | Todd Pletcher | 14-1 | 12-1 |
| Firing Line | Simon Callaghan | 16-1 | 15-1 |
| Frosted | Kiaran McLaughlin | 16-1 | 15-1 |
| Upstart | Rick Violette Jr. | 20-1 | 12-1 |
| International Star | Mike Maker | 25-1 | 15-1 |
| El Kabeir | John Terranova II | 33-1 | 30-1 |
| Far Right | Ron Moquett | 33-1 | 30-1 |
| Itsaknockout | Todd Pletcher | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| Bolo | Carla Gaines | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| Danzig Moon | Mark Casse | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| Tencendur | George Weaver | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| Ocho Ocho Ocho | Jim Cassidy | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Mr Z | D. Wayne Lukas | 50-1 | 50-1 |
There are a few points to note with these odds. For one thing, the Odds Shark-collated odds are dated April 22. Also, of course, these odds have been set prior to the announcement of the final post positions, something naturally likely to alter the lines, if only slightly.
Yet even if there are changes, they are unlikely to alter the thinking among many experts. John Asher, Jill Byrne and Ed DeRosa of the race's official site have all tabbed Pharoah to cross the winning line first.
The only naysayer is James Scully, who opts instead for Dortmund. But choosing the Bob Baffert-trained unbeaten horse, the same man who's trained Pharoah, is hardly a daring stand against the tide.
But one genuine dark-horse candidate to watch out for is Carpe Diem. The motivation to win one last Kentucky Derby before he retires will spur on jockey John Velazquez, according to Daily Racing Form writer David Grening.
Yet it isn't the man in the saddle's desire that could make the difference for this Todd Pletcher-trained horse. Instead, it's how well-suited Carpe Diem may be to the long and daunting course in Louisville.
Associated Press reporter Beth Harris (h/t Asbury Park Press) detailed one important characteristic in the way Pletcher's key horse runs:
"Pletcher's top Derby entry among his five-horse contingent. He commanded a sales price of $1.6 million as a 2-year-old. Winner of the Blue Grass and Tampa Bay Derby, with his lone career loss being a runner-up finish in the BC Juvenile. He prefers stalking the leader and closing strongly.
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Being able to rely on a late spurt could prove crucial on a course that extends 10 furlongs. Betting guru Mike Watchmaker indicated Diem has yet to show his best form, per the Daily Racing Form's odds tips.
A race this prestigious would certainly be the perfect time.
Pletcher's other notable horse in this race, Materiality, is another relative outsider to keep an eye on. The horse has an excellent pedigree having come from Afleet Alex, a stud with an excellent, albeit brief, career mark, as the Derby's official site detailed: "He compiled a sterling mark of eight wins, two seconds and a third from 12 career starts, including victories in the Hopeful, Sanford and Arkansas Derby."
Materiality has also won in each of its last three starts, according to Blood-Horse (h/t Equibase).
Pletcher certainly has a strong contingent on display in the Blue Grass State. Only his horses look like offering a credible challenge to Baffert's marquee stable.
At the moment, though, it seems next to impossible to look past presumptive experts' picks Pharoah or Dortmund taking the major prize money.
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