Kentucky Derby 2015: Full Odds and Expert Predictions for Historic Race

The build for this year's Kentucky Derby has been growing exponentially, really starting at the beginning of April with the Santa Anita Derby, with the full effect about to hit on April 29 when the post positions are announced. 

It's always fascinating to read predictions about the field at Churchill Downs every year because they all inevitably fall into the same trap of Triple Crown talk. Even those who try to talk around it know that it's there because fans want to know if this is the year it happens. 

While there will be plenty of time after the Kentucky Derby to dissect Triple Crown chances, here's an examination of the field at Churchill Downs and what experts are expecting to happen on May 2. 

Kentucky Derby Odds

Horse	Odds	Trainer
American Pharoah	2-1	Bob Baffert
Dortmund	9-2	Bob Baffert
Carpe Diem	7-1	Todd Pletcher
Mubtaahij	12-1	Mike de Kock
Materiality	14-1	Todd Pletcher
Firing Line	16-1	Simon Callaghan
Frosted	16-1	Kiaran McLaughlin
Upstart	20-1	Rick Violette Jr.
International Star	25-1	Mike Maker
El Kabeir	33-1	John Terranova II
Far Right	33-1	Ron Moquett
Itsaknockout	40-1	Todd Pletcher
Bolo	40-1	Carla Gaines
Danzig Moon	40-1	Mark Casse
Tencendur	40-1	George Weaver
Ocho Ocho Ocho	50-1	Jim Cassidy
Mr Z	50-1	D. Wayne Lukas

Expert Predictions

via The Associated Press

As the odds suggest, there are two horses that stand out above the rest of the field in this year's Kentucky Derby. 

American Pharoah is getting pumped up hard by the oddsmakers and experts in their predictions. It's not hard to figure out why, as the three-year-old is coming off a dominating eight-length win at the Arkansas Derby on April 11. 

As noted by Mary Rampellini of the Daily Racing Form, American Pharoah's win at Arkansas was just the tip of an iceberg that started forming last year:

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American Pharoah, the champion 2-year-old male of 2014 who closed as the favorite in the latest pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, was winning his fourth straight graded stakes in a streak that started last September when he won his maiden in the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity in his second career start. He proceeded to capture the Grade 1 FrontRunner at Santa Anita and then opened his 3-year-old season with a 6 1/4-length win in last month’s Grade 2, $750,000 Rebel Stakes.

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It's not like American Pharoah was going against a cupcake field in Arkansas. He came in first ahead of Far Right and Mr. Z, who are also going to be running in the Kentucky Derby. Winning by eight lengths is impressive on its own, but doing it against two fellow Kentucky Derby competitors gives it extra heft. 

However, according to Beth Harris of the Associated Press (via Asbury Park Press), American Pharoah's style does have limitations in a race when he isn't clearly the best horse on the track:

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American Pharoah has a front-running style and the only time he had to come from behind he finished fifth in his career debut. The worry about him is that the colt hasn't been tested in his prep races, leaving Baffert unsure how he will handle a full field of horses making a mad scramble for position going into the first turn. 

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American Pharoah's top competition is Dortmund, who happens to be the ultimate front-runner with six wins in six career races. 

Adding to Dortmund's appeal is that one of those victories came at Churchill Downs last Nov. 29, so he already knows this particular dirt surface well. The undefeated star also has great blood lines as the son of Big Brown, who won the first two legs of the Triple Crown in 2008. 

Garry Jones, The Associated Press

Bob Baffert, who trains both American Pharoah and Dortmund, compared the latter to Wisconsin star basketball player Frank Kaminsky in a March teleconference, per NTRA.com:

"This horse is tall; his frame, he's leggy.  He's more like a Wisconsin center Frank Kaminsky.  He's just a big, tall thing like that.  He's sort of a smaller build kind of a horse.  He's not a big, deep-chested horse, but he’s big, long, and he's really light on his feet."

Early predictions for the race are largely split between American Pharoah and Dortmund. According to the Kentucky Derby website's power ranking tally of expert picks, the top three are American Pharoah, Dortmund and Carpe Diem. 

Barring something shocking happening on May 2, American Pharoah and Dortmund are the obvious names to watch. Post positions will change the odds, at least to some extent, when they are announced next week. 

Based on the reports for the horses, Dortmund gets the slight edge in the early prediction. American Pharoah's need to start out front is a concern, as it's not crazy to think he might stumble out of the block or get pushed to the outside. 

Dortmund has yet to taste defeat and has the lineage to become a sensation this season. He's still ascending heading into the biggest race of the year, which is all you can ask.