Kentucky Derby 2015 Contenders: Betting Tips, Favorites and Latest Odds

The first leg of the 2015 Triple Crown looks to be at the mercy of trainer Bob Baffert, as he is responsible for the two leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby.

American Pharoah and Dortmund have both been impressive in their prep races for the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 2, and they will line up at Churchill Downs hoping to give Baffert his fourth win in the race.

But while much of the attention will be focused on Baffert’s two runners, there is enough quality in the rest of the field to ensure the Kentucky Derby won’t be a two-horse race.

Here, we take a look at the main contenders for the race and their odds.

Horse	Trainer	Odds
American Pharoah	Bob Baffert	11-4
Dortmund	Bob Baffert	5-1
Carpe Diem	Todd Pletcher	10-1
Mubtaahij	Mike de Kock	12-1
Materiality	Todd Pletcher	14-1
Frosted	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
Firing Line	Simon Callaghan	20-1
Dubai Sky	William Mott	25-1
International Star	Michael Maker	25-1
Upstart	Richard Violette Jr.	25-1

American Pharoah

His eight-length victory over Far Right in the Arkansas Derby on his last run was described as “jaw-dropping” by Jonathan Lintner of The Courier-Journal, and the video above provides evidence of that. 

Leading from the front, American Pharoah, complete with his unusual spelling, could have won even more emphatically if he wanted to. Jockey Victor Espinoza won the Kentucky Derby last year on California Chrome, and he has an excellent chance of a repeat triumph aboard the ante-post favorite.

Forced to miss the Breeders’ Cup last year due to a foot injury, American Pharoah will prove hard to catch, especially if he is allowed to have things his own way out in front.

Dortmund

Baffert’s other runner is unbeaten in six career starts, and he defeated Firing Line by a head in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity at the end of his juvenile career in December.

He was mightily impressive in winning the Santa Anita Derby last time in the hands of regular rider Martin Garcia, and Baffert is delighted to have two strong candidates for the Kentucky Derby, as reported by Nicholas Godfrey of the Racing Post:

"

It’s exciting. I’ve been in this position before. You get excited when you know you have a legit contender, just like last year when Art Sherman went through it with California Chrome. The feeling is like we’ve been here before; just enjoy the moment because the next race is going to be the one. It’s good to see this horse just really developing the way he has from his first start.

"

Carpe Diem

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Like Baffert, Todd Pletcher has two runners going for the Kentucky Derby, and Carpe Diem’s sole defeat in five starts came when he was second behind Texas Red in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita last November. He won the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on his most recent start, and he has the potential to trouble the Baffert pair.

Mubtaahij

Perhaps the most fascinating runner in the field is Mubtaahij, who runs for South African trainer Mike de Kock. The three-year-old enjoyed an excellent winter out in Derby, winning four races at Meydan, culminating in victory in the UAE Derby. His overall level of form looks below his market rivals, but he is something of an unknown quantity.

Materiality

Pletcher’s other contender for the race has run just three times in his career, and all of those have been this year. Materiality has quickly progressed into a top-class horse, though, and he took the Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park on his last start. The Kentucky Derby will be a serious test, but there are bundles of improvement to come.

Frosted

Frosted will represent the Godolphin colors this year, and the horse won the Wood Memorial Stakes at the Grade 1 level last time. However, with just two wins from seven starts, he is more exposed than most, and he has a bit to find with the principals.

Betting Tips

At the prices, Baffert’s second string Dortmund makes more appeal than American Pharoah, as they have been equally impressive in their prep races. For some each-way value, the claims of Pletcher’s second string Materiality also can’t be ignored.