Kentucky Derby 2015 Odds: Analyzing Chances of Victory for Top Contenders
We've yet to figure out the official field of as many as 20 horses for the 2015 Kentucky Derby, but a handful have already slid their way into the forefront of the conversation.
A number of telling races in March and April help to set the stage for the year's first Triple Crown event, as showdowns at the Arkansas Derby and the Santa Anita Derby can be signs of what's to come. While typically, there remains one resounding favorite that has trumped the rest already, multiple horses have arrived in Churchill Downs with considerable win streaks.
With time running out before the 141st Run for the Roses, let's take a look at all of the odds and look closer at a few top contenders.
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Odds to Win 2015 Kentucky Derby
| American Pharoah | 2-1 |
| Dortmund | 9-2 |
| Carpe Diem | 7-1 |
| Mubtaahij | 12-1 |
| Materiality | 14-1 |
| Firing Line | 16-1 |
| Frosted | 16-1 |
| Upstart | 20-1 |
| International Star | 25-1 |
| El Kabeir | 33-1 |
| Far Right | 33-1 |
| Itsaknockout | 40-1 |
| Bolo | 40-1 |
| Danzig Moon | 40-1 |
| Tencendur | 40-1 |
| Ocho Ocho Ocho | 50-1 |
| Mr. Z | 50-1 |
Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark, last updated April 22.
Top Contenders
American Pharoah
Having his name spelled wrong isn't the only way American Pharoah is standing out from the rest of the field at the Kentucky Derby. His results do that, too.
In five career races, American Pharoah has won each of the last four. That includes runaway victories at the Arkansas Derby and the Rebel in his only 2015 action, after being the two-year-old champion last year.
The horse is having a time getting ready to the track at Churchill Downs and looks the part of a horse that could run away with the 141st running, per American Pharoah's Twitter:
He's not the biggest of horses but has a favorable build and an incredibly long gallop to close out distances between opponents in a hurry. Whether he cruises, like in the Rebel, or leaves himself to come back, like in the Arkansas Derby, the most likely end result is him in the winner's circle.
This year's field is loaded with able contenders, but none have boasted the type of running that American Pharoah is capable of. If every horse puts his best 1 ¼ miles forward, it will still end in American Pharoah cruising to victory.
Dortmund
Trainer Bob Baffert wouldn't be able to complain if just one of his horses found his way into the forefront of the favorites conversation. In 2015, he has options No. 1 and No. 2.
Dortmund has more than made a name for himself in a year that has produced plenty of dangerous Kentucky Derby contenders, winning four straight and all three of his races in 2015—including the Santa Anita Derby.
Two of the last three winners of that race—California Chrome and I'll Have Another—have mounted the biggest Triple Crown tests of the last decade. That's not bad company.
If Dortmund is going to prevail, it might be attributed to his size advantage, as Baffert used a head-turning comparison for his two horses, per Lexington Courier-Journal's Kentucky Derby Twitter feed:
Without going into too much detail over whether Shaquille O'Neal or Kobe Bryant would win in a race, Dortmund could use some help from the post positions. If both are bunched up during stretches of the race, that should benefit Dortmund and allow him to muscle into the lead.
It may not be as simple as picking between Kobe and Shaq in their primes, but Dortmund and American Pharoah undoubtedly create an interesting dynamic for the Derby.
Mubtaahij
The Kentucky Derby doesn't typically reward those traveling from far away with strong performances—it's just an awfully tough feat to pull off. But Mubtaahij may be the one to break the mold.
Mubtaahij comes to America off a win at the United Arab Emirates Derby in Dubai, about 7,000 miles away. It's the only race that can qualify for the Kentucky Derby outside of the U.S., and he took it to mark his fourth win in his last five races.
Most importantly, all five races have been on dirt—a break from the grass tracks that many non-U.S. competitions use. Travel plans haven't cooperated, as he's still finding his way to Churchill Downs, but at least he's in the States, trainer Mike de Kock reported:
Mubtaahij waited until the latter stages of the UAE Derby before absolutely running away from the field and with the race. With 20 of the best horses in the world going up against him at the Kentucky Derby, he's going to need to pull off a similar feat next weekend to place.
Horse and race information courtesy of HorseRacingNation.com and KentuckyDerby.com, unless otherwise noted.
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