Kentucky Derby 2015: Complete Odds and Early Favorites to Consider
The complete field for the 2015 Kentucky Derby is far from set, but there's no secret as to who the top contenders at Churchill Downs will be come May 2.
The Triple Crown drought carries on into 2015 much to the chagrin of California Chrome loyalists. But every year, the Kentucky Derby breeds hope that a thoroughbred will break through the mold to pull off the feat. Considering a handful of horses are running at a furious pace at the moment, simply winning the Derby will be a massive feat in itself.
There's always the chance for one of the afterthoughts to step into the winner's circle, but all of the talk heading into the Run for the Roses tends to follow the big names. With that in mind, let's break down the latest odds and consider which bets may be worth making.
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2015 Kentucky Derby Odds
| American Pharoah | 2-1 |
| Dortmund | 9-2 |
| Carpe Diem | 7-1 |
| Mubtaahij | 12-1 |
| Materiality | 14-1 |
| Firing Line | 16-1 |
| Frosted | 16-1 |
| Upstart | 20-1 |
| International Star | 25-1 |
| El Kabeir | 33-1 |
| Far Right | 33-1 |
| Itsaknockout | 40-1 |
| Bolo | 40-1 |
| Danzig Moon | 40-1 |
| Tencendur | 40-1 |
| Ocho Ocho Ocho | 50-1 |
| Mr. Z | 50-1 |
Note: Odds courtesy of Odds Shark, last updated April 22.
Early Kentucky Derby Favorites
American Pharoah: 2-1
A singular favorite almost always emerges prior to the Kentucky Derby, but only on rare occasions does a horse like American Pharoah grace Churchill Downs.
The Bob Baffert-trained horse is way out in front as the favorite to gallop into the winner's circle, but it's easy to see why so much faith is bestowed in the colt. After a fifth-place finish in his first-ever start back in August of 2014, he's won four consecutive races, including the Arkansas Derby in his final tuneup action before heading to Kentucky.
With most horses already at Churchill Downs preparing for the race, it's not surprising that American Pharoah is standing out, per The Courier-Journal's Derby Twitter feed:
As if an incredible hot streak isn't enough, American Pharoah has the jockey of last year's Triple Crown threat riding him to a potential victory. Victor Espinoza is one of the most experienced jockeys in the sport, and he rode California Chrome to wins at the Derby and Preakness Stakes just a year ago.
Simply put, there isn't much going against the big Derby favorite this year.
Dortmund: 9-2
Baffert has become synonymous at the Kentucky Derby with inserting a plethora of contenders, but he hasn't trained a winner since 2002 despite running 24 horses in his career. This year could be different, and it's not just the assumed favorite making the headlines.
American Pharoah's dominance has overshadowed Dortmund, but only just. Like his fellow contender, Dortmund has won each of his last four starts—going 1 ⅛ miles to win the Santa Anita Derby before gearing up for Kentucky.
If American Pharoah is more of a burly all-around package, Dortmund is the swift sprinter. Baffert explained the difference in this year's two favorites to the The Courier-Journal's Jonathan Lintner:
"They're two different types. Dortmund, he's all lanky—built like a greyhound. This horse (American Pharoah)—he's more of a full package. Like Shaq and Kobe Bryant, you know? But they're both really good horses, and we don't know how good they really are.
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It will be the first time Dortmund is not the favorite to win in his short but illustrious career if American Pharoah does indeed beat him out, as Craig Johnson of Derbyologist.com noted:
With more than a week separating us from the race, don't be surprised if Dortmund is talked about enough to push his odds closer to that of the favorite.
Carpe Diem: 7-1
It may not feel like the third favorite is a dark-horse (pun intended) pick when there will be as many as 20 horses in the field, but American Pharoah and Dortmund's dominance atop the sportsbooks makes Carpe Diem an enticing 7-1 option.
Trainer Todd Pletcher has worked wonders with his crown jewel of the 2015 Triple Crown circuit, producing wins at the Blue Grass Stakes and the Tampa Bay Derby in his only action of the year. Pletcher is winner of the last two Eclipse Awards as the top trainer in the sport, and it's not hard to see why.
Having veteran jockey John Velazquez—riding in his 14th Derby—on the saddle makes him all the more enticing, as Jose A. Contreras of America's Best Racing noted:
Pletcher has turned a middle-of-the-road option in betting circles into a Derby champion before in 2010, when Super Saver emerged from a wide-open field to win it. That field didn't include the types of favorites this one does, but that doesn't mean Carpe Diem can't seize the moment and pull off the upset.
Specific horse history and statistics courtesy of HorseRacingNation.com and KentuckyDerby.com unless otherwise noted.
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