NFL Draft 2015: 1st-Round Mock Draft, Outlook for Need-Based Picks

Every front office will face a pressing predicament during the first round of the upcoming 2015 NFL draft—whether to pick based on need or pick the best player available.

It is an interesting debate that doesn’t necessarily have one right answer. A number of variables come into play every season, including the positional depth at the area of need, how close the given team is to playoff or Super Bowl contention and how much better the supposed best player available is than the need-based option.

The 2015 draft will feature a handful of these scenarios in the first round. There may even be a few best-of-both-worlds scenarios for fortunate teams that need the position that the best player available actually fills.

With that in mind, here is a look at a complete first-round mock draft and a handful of teams that will base their early pick on need.

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Leonard Williams, DT, USC
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Dante Fowler, DE/OLB, Florida
4	Oakland Raiders	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
5	Washington	Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
6	New York Jets	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
7	Chicago Bears	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
8	Atlanta Falcons	Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
10	St. Louis Rams	La'el Collins, OL, LSU
11	Minnesota Vikings	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
12	Cleveland Browns	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
13	New Orleans Saints	Shane Ray, DE/OLB, Missouri
14	Miami Dolphins	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
15	San Francisco 49ers	Arik Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon
16	Houston Texans	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
17	San Diego Chargers	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
19	Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo)	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
23	Detroit Lions	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
24	Arizona Cardinals	Alvin "Bud" Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
25	Carolina Panthers	D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
26	Baltimore Ravens	Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
27	Dallas Cowboys	Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
28	Denver Broncos	Maxx Williams, TE, Minnesota
29	Indianapolis Colts	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
30	Green Bay Packers	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
31	New Orleans Saints (via Seattle)	Benardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State
32	New England Patriots	Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri

Need-Based First-Round Picks

Chicago Bears: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama

It may seem crazy that the Chicago Bears need a wide receiver given the outlook for the offense at the beginning of last year with Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett.

However, the Bears traded Brandon Marshall to the New York Jets and signed Eddie Royal, who is more of a slot receiver. Chicago needs someone else to line up out wide, otherwise defenses are going to swarm the talented Jeffery on every play.

Enter Alabama’s Amari Cooper.

The Crimson Tide receiver is as polished as prospects come and finished his career with 228 catches, 3,463 receiving yards and 31 touchdowns and boasts the skill set necessary to contribute right away at the NFL level. His impeccable route-running ability helps him get open on underneath plays, and his speed and burst allows him to beat corners deep.

Cooper also boasts NFL-ready hands that will help him catch passes in traffic.

Bucky Brooks of NFL.com noted that Cooper is an ideal fit for the Bears:

"

New coach John Fox's recent experience with Peyton Manning and an explosive receiving corps in Denver could prompt him to try surrounding Bears quarterback Jay Cutler with the weapons that could help him rediscover his Pro Bowl form. Cooper is a silky-smooth playmaker with a refined game that makes him ideally suited for a WR1 role opposite big-bodied pass-catchers Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett. With Jeffery and Bennett capable of clearing zones on vertical routes, Cooper could work the underneath areas of coverage on an assortment of short and intermediate routes designed to let him use his impeccable timing and awareness to settle into open windows.  

"

A Cooper, Jeffery, Bennett and Forte combination is a worrisome proposition for NFC defenses.

Atlanta Falcons: Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska

Somehow a team with Matt Ryan (4,694 passing yards in 2014), Julio Jones (1,593 receiving yards in 2014) and Roddy White finished 6-10 last year despite the fact that it played in the worst division in the league.

The culprit was the Atlanta Falcons defense that ranked 32nd in the league in total defense, 32nd against the pass, 21st against the run, 30th in sacks and 27th in scoring defense. It was a season-long struggle for every level of the defense that ended any playoff hopes Atlanta harbored.

Nebraska’s Randy Gregory would help fix some of the problems.

He finished with a combined 17.5 sacks the past two seasons thanks to his combination of strength and athleticism. He explodes past tackles on the outside, bull rushes his way up the middle on other plays and has the versatility necessary to play along the defensive line or in a linebacker spot.

Nati Harnik/Associated Press

Gregory is also a formidable run defender who pursues ball-carriers with impressive speed.

Atlanta’s pass defense was atrocious last season, and that doesn’t entirely fall on the secondary. The lack of a consistent pass-rush crippled the defense and allowed receivers plenty of time to get open downfield. 

Adding Gregory, who can also contribute against the run, would be a mandatory first step toward fixing the pass defense.

Dallas Cowboys: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia

The commitment to the rushing attack was a major reason why the Dallas Cowboys were 12-4 and won the NFC East last season.

Running back DeMarco Murray ended up with 1,845 rushing yards behind arguably the NFL’s best offensive line and was a dominant force with the ball in his hands. The only problem moving into 2015 is that Murray is with the division rival Philadelphia Eagles now.

John Bazemore/Associated Press

The Cowboys brought in Darren McFadden, who has plenty of natural ability, but he only tallied 1,620 combined rushing yards the past three seasons. That’s right, he had fewer rushing yards the last three years than Murray had in 2014 alone.

Plus, McFadden is injury-prone and only played a full 16 games one time in his entire career. In fact, he only played in more than 13 games in a season one time since he entered the league.

It is almost ironic then that the Cowboys will take a running back coming off an ACL tear in the draft, but Todd Gurley is worth the gamble.

He is a 6’1” beast of a runner who steamrolled his way through arm tackles throughout his tenure at Georgia. He was more than just a physical runner, though, and he contributed in the kick return game and busted a number of game-changing runs in open space because of his formidable speed.

ESPN analyst Todd McShay discussed Gurley, per Ebenezer Samuel of the New York Daily News: “(If not for the knee) he’d be a lock as a top-10 pick. He’s the best five, six or seventh talent in this draft…Once he gets going, with his head of steam, he’s an absolute freight train of a runner.” 

The injury risk is real, but so is the sky-high ceiling. Dallas needs a replacement for Murray, and Gurley will be exactly that next season.

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