NFL Draft 2015: Breaking Down Biggest Surprises in 1st-Round Mock Draft

There are many reasons fans watch the NFL draft. The obvious is because football is an obsession everyone shares, but beyond that is the drama of watching commissioner Roger Goodell step to the podium reading a card with a name on it. 

Even though there are hundreds of mock drafts written every year, most starting in January, the draft always brings at least one huge surprise no one saw coming. Last year's first shock was quarterback Blake Bortles going to Jacksonville at No. 3, which threw all of the mocks for a loop. 

This year feels poised to have more shocks, though Tampa Bay's pick at No. 1 seems like a lock. Starting with Tennessee at No. 2, everything feels in play, and that's how it should be.

A franchise such as the Titans has so many needs on both sides of the ball that it has to make the most of this opportunity, whether it's through a trade or actually making a pick. Whatever ends up happening, it will be fascinating, and it will have a ripple effect on the rest of the draft. 

Here's a look at the latest first-round mock draft, followed by an examination of the biggest surprises from this list. 

Pos.	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
4	Oakland Raiders	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
5	Washington	Leonard Williams, DE, USC
6	New York Jets	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
7	Chicago Bears	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
8	Atlanta Falcons	Randy Gregory, LB, Nebraska
9	New York Giants	Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
10	St. Louis Rams	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
11	Minnesota Vikings	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
12	Cleveland Browns	Breshad Perriman, WR, Central Florida
13	New Orleans Saints	Dante Fowler, DE, Florida
14	Miami Dolphins	Shane Ray, LB, Missouri
15	San Francisco 49ers	Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
16	Houston Texans	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
17	San Diego Chargers	La'el Collins, OT, LSU
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Nelson Agholor, WR, USC
19	Cleveland Browns (Acquired from Buffalo)	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
23	Detroit Lions	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
24	Arizona Cardinals	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
25	Carolina Panthers	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
26	Baltimore Ravens	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
27	Dallas Cowboys	Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
28	Denver Broncos	Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
29	Indianapolis Colts	D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
30	Green Bay Packers	Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA
31	New Orleans Saints (Acquired from Seattle)	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
32	New England Patriots	Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut

Amari Cooper to Jacksonville Jaguars (No. 3 overall)

Leave it to Jacksonville to throw off draft boards with the third pick once again. There's no disputing Amari Cooper as a worthy candidate for the No. 3 pick, though most mock drafts around the Internet have the Jaguars going with defense, since head coach Gus Bradley was a defensive coordinator in Seattle. 

Doug Farrar of Sports Illustrated brought up the defensive angle in his second mock draft, in which Dante Fowler Jr. was projected to Jacksonville:

"

When he was Seattle's defensive coordinator, Jaguars head coach Gus Bradley learned the value of the LEO hybrid end in Pete Carroll's defense. The Jags are remaking what used to be a barren roster, and they've done well at several positions over the last few seasons, but they're woefully thin at the pass-rusher position.

"

The only good thing about the Jaguars' inability to build a roster of talent is there's almost no direction they can go that would seem like a stretch. If they went with Fowler or defensive lineman Leonard Williams, no one is going to cry foul. 

If Cooper or Kevin White ends up being the pick, that's just as easy to justify because Bortles needs a No. 1 option to use if he's going to develop into the quarterback this staff clearly believes he can be. 

Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

The talk around Cooper has been light, at least compared to White, because he tested exactly as most analysts expected at the combine. The Alabama star measured in at 6'1" and 211 pounds with a 4.42-second 40-yard dash and 120-inch broad jump. 

Those are fantastic numbers, but White exceeded expectations with a 4.35 40-yard dash and is slightly bigger at 6'3" and 215 pounds, so everyone focuses on the shiny new toy instead of appreciating the one that's been in the spotlight for three years. 

The word used to describe Cooper in this draft, which for some reason can have negative connotations, is "safe." Eric Galko of the Sporting News offered this reason for using that particular adjective:

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He’s able to use his high-level athleticism and polish as a runner to make an early impact in the NFL as a vertical receiver as well as a mid-field target.

The safest of the receiver prospects, Cooper should be able to transition from being a 124-reception receiver at Alabama into a reliable feature target for his eventual NFL quarterback. 

"

Safe seems like Cooper is a limited player coming into the NFL, meaning he can reach a certain level but won't be a star. It's important to note that White's times and measurables weren't significantly better than Cooper's. 

The NFL is a league built on quarterbacks and scoring a lot of points. Since 2012, the Jaguars have 51 touchdown passes from their quarterbacks and have been held under 20 points 33 times in 48 games. That's how you win nine games in three years. 

Cooper may not be the consensus pick for Jacksonville, but paired with Bortles at quarterback, he gives the franchise a dynamic weapon and a foundation piece to keep building the roster around for the future. 

Todd Gurley to New York Giants (No. 9 overall)

It's time to stop talking about Todd Gurley's injury and start looking at him as a freak athlete who can change a game in multiple ways, since that's what he is. 

Any concerns about Gurley's knee were alleviated when he went through a medical recheck in Indianapolis, which the NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reported went fine:

Once the news about Gurley's knee came out, the tide around his draft stock started to turn. There's little doubt that he, along with Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon, will break the current trend of running backs not going in the first round. 

The question for Gurley becomes how high he will go, to which Charles Robinson of Yahoo Sports provided a possible answer:

If the assumption is Gurley goes in the back half of the top 10, it's just a matter of finding the best fit. The New York Jets at No. 6 need playmakers on offense and would certainly make for a nice fit, especially with a questionable quarterback situation. 

The Chicago Bears may want to start looking for 29-year-old Matt Forte's replacement, as he is entering the final year of his contract. The Bears have bigger needs to address, either at wide receiver or defense, with their first pick, though. 

The Atlanta Falcons certainly need help at running back, as they have for years when it was clear the Steven Jackson signing wasn't going to work. But major defensive issues make it difficult to wholly justify investing in Gurley with edge-rushers such as Randy Gregory and Shane Ray still on the board. 

That brings us to the New York Giants, who are steadfast in their drafts. A common pick for New York in mock drafts has been offensive lineman Brandon Scherff, but that's not a position it often drafts in the first round (Justin Pugh in 2013 being an exception). 

The Giants' philosophy has been to invest in skill players early (quarterback, wide receiver, running back, defensive back) and fill out the rest of the roster later. That's worked well at times, most recently with Odell Beckham Jr. last season. 

Gurley certainly fills a need area for the Giants, who averaged the third-fewest yards per carry last season (3.6). Even though quarterback Eli Manning had a down season in 2014, he still threw 30 touchdowns, so giving him a stable running game with Gurley and Beckham and Rueben Randle on the outside suddenly makes this offense a force to be reckoned with. 

Jaelen Strong to Houston Texans (No. 16 overall)

Since the Houston Texans are going with a quarterback competition between Ryan Mallett and Brian Hoyer to start 2015, head coach Bill O'Brien would do well to give his offense more versatile options in the passing game. 

For the first time since 2002, the Texans will be lining up without Andre Johnson after his release in March. The Texans have a built-in replacement for Johnson as the No. 1 guy in DeAndre Hopkins, but the remaining internal options are Cecil Shorts, DeVier Posey and Nate Washington.

Jaelen Strong isn't a consensus top-20 pick or talent in this draft, though that doesn't make him a significant reach at this spot. B/R's Matt Miller has the Arizona State wideout ranked fifth among this year's receiver group with the following as his biggest strength:

"

Throw the ball up and Strong will go get it. He doesn’t shy away from contested catches and has the strength to pull the ball down in traffic. He routinely saw bracket coverage in college and was able to split defenders and use his wingspan and jumping ability to generate a huge catch radius. He tracks the ball well over either shoulder and adjusts his hands to passes thrown off target.

"

Miller did note in his list of weaknesses for Strong that his route running is "raw," which does limit his immediate value and explains why there's not a huge consensus on him. 

Strong's wrist, which Rapoport (via Bryan Fischer of NFL.com) revealed had a broken bone in it, also became a talking point late in the process. Strong later told Les Bowen of the Philadelphia Daily News he wouldn't need surgery. 

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Pittsburgh Steelers doctors checked out Strong's wrist and cleared him. 

With no apparent injury concerns to hold Strong down, he's a 6'2" and 217-pound physical monster who ran a 4.44 40-yard dash at the combine with a 42-inch vertical jump. He will need polish to become a star in the NFL, but finding a wide receiver who can stretch the field while making catches in traffic is a valuable asset. 

The Texans aren't perfect on defense, but with J.J. Watt and hopefully a healthy Jadeveon Clowney, that defensive front can be scary.

Add a big-time playmaker to the offense who can help Mallett or Hoyer with running back Arian Foster, who had 1,246 rushing yards in 2014 with Ryan Fitzpatrick as the primary quarterback, and suddenly, this team looks like a contender in the AFC South. 

Combine stats and measurables via NFL.com.