Kentucky Derby 2015 Post Time: NBC TV Start Time, Final Predictions and More

On one of the busiest sports days in a long time, the 2015 Kentucky Derby is still able to take center stage because it holds a special place in the popular landscape. There's also the intrigue of possibly seeing a Triple Crown champion begin on Saturday. 

This year's run at Churchill Downs features three heavy favorites in American Pharoah, Carpe Diem and Dortmund, followed by several solid choices who might be at or near the top of a betting line in most years. 

Prior to the start of this year's Run for the Roses, here's all the information that will get you ready for what is sure to be an incredible race. 

Date	Start Time (ET)	Network	Post Time
Saturday, May 2	Coverage begins at 4 p.m.	NBC	6:24 p.m.

Post Positions

No.	Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	2	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	25-1
2	3	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8-1
3	4	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	16-1
4	5	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	6	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	33-1
6	7	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	12-1
7		El Kabeir	Calvin Borel		SCR
8	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	18-5
9	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	40-1
10	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12-1
11		Stanford	Florent Geroux		SCR
12		International Star	Miguel Mena		SCR
13	11	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
14	12	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	40-1
15	13	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
16	14	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	15	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
18	16	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	13-5
19	17	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	25-1
20	18	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	40-1
21	19	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	66-1

Race Prediction

Uncredited/Associated Press

It's fun to contrast this year's Derby with last year's, which was all about California Chrome and everyone else trailing far behind. 

American Pharoah is the favorite to win this year, but there's stiff competition from Carpe Diem and Dortmund. It seems likely Bob Baffert will have a good day on Saturday, as the legendary trainer works with American Pharoah and Dortmund. 

By working with both horses, Baffert is able to handicap the two. He told Ed McNamara of Newsday that despite the number of terrific horses he's worked with over the years, American Pharoah is "the most exceptional three-year-old."

American Pharoah has won each of his last four races, including the Arkansas Derby by eight lengths in his final tuneup before the Kentucky Derby. Yet as Claire Novak of Blood-Horse noted after that win, this was nothing new for the three-year-old star:

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It appeared just as easy for American Pharoah as his Rebel win in the slop, during which he raced with a sprung front right shoe. Sitting about four lengths behind Bridget's Big Luvy as he went a quarter in :22.77 and a half in :45.99, American Pharoah began his move through three-quarters in 1:10.54 and struck the lead turning for home.

From there, it was only a contest for second, as Espinoza sat chilly and American Pharoah lengthened away, increasing his advantage through a 1:35.94 mile and galloping clear under the wire.

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Raw speed is a beautiful thing to have. American Pharoah has shown the ability to make up a lot of ground in a short amount of time, which is good since this is the longest race of his young career so far. A bad start doesn't necessarily mean doom for him the way it can for an average horse. 

Garry Jones/Associated Press

But this is also the first time American Pharoah will be facing competition like Dortmund and Carpe Diem. Here's how good Carpe Diem is, despite being No. 3 on the betting line, via Steve Haskin of Blood-Horse:

As for why Haskin is so high on Carpe Diem, the horse has never finished worse than second in five career races (four wins) and won the Blue Grass Stakes by three lengths. That was the longest race he had taken part in yet at 1.125 miles, so it's encouraging that he won with ease and didn't get tired as the race moved along. 

For Dortmund, he's got history on his side coming off a win at the Santa Anita Derby. California Chrome used the California-based race as a springboard to winning the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes last year.

David J. Phillip/Associated Press/Associated Press

In fact, going back to 2012, two of the past three winners of the Santa Anita Derby have won at Churchill Downs (I'll Have Another). Dortmund also has yet to taste defeat in a race, posting a perfect 6-0 record. 

In a point-counterpoint battle on HorseRacingNation.com, Matt Jones favored Dortmund because he's got more race experience than American Pharoah on the dirt that will be on the track at Churchill Downs:

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While each surface carries the label of “dirt,” they are all unique. Churchill Downs is no exception and has a fabled record of normalizing even some of the most qualified dirt runners. The next few weeks will prove critical for horses to train and adjust to the unique surface under the Twin Spires. American Pharoah will get a full 3 weeks to adjust, but he wont race on the dirt until May 2nd. Dortmund has raced and won (by over 7 lengths) over the same dirt that he will contest for the Kentucky Derby.

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American Pharoah has earned his right to be a favorite at the Kentucky Derby thanks to his dominant win at Arkansas. There are wins, and there are wins. Pharoah had the latter on April 11 and continues to rise in betting circles. 

Yet it's hard to overlook Dortmund's resume, including the win at Santa Anita and history on the same dirt surface at Churchill Downs. This is shaping up to be one of the best Kentucky Derby races in a long time, with Dortmund edging out American Pharoah down the final stretch. 

Horse stats via HorseRacingNation.com.