
Kentucky Derby 2015 Post Positions: Latest Odds, Historical Stats for Each Slot
The post positions for the 2015 Kentucky Derby have been set. Now an elite field of competitors and connections will have a better idea of how to game-plan in their bids for the first leg of the Triple Crown at Churchill Downs on Saturday.
In the 141st annual Run for the Roses in Louisville, the prohibitive favorite appears to be American Pharoah. With four straight victories, including the Arkansas Derby most recently, he's a deserving No. 1 odds-on choice.
Check out the latest odds below now that the post positions have been revealed:
| 1 | Ocho Ocho Ocho | Elvis Trujillo | Jim Cassidy | 50-1 |
| 2 | Carpe Diem | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher | 8-1 |
| 3 | Materiality | Javier Castellano | Todd Pletcher | 12-1 |
| 4 | Tencendur | Manny Franco | George Weaver | 30-1 |
| 5 | Danzig Moon | Julien Leparoux | Mark Casse | 30-1 |
| 6 | Mubtaahij | Christophe Soumillon | Mike de Kock | 20-1 |
| 7 | El Kabeir | Calvin Borel | John Terranova II | 30-1 |
| 8 | Dortmund | Martin Garcia | Bob Baffert | 3-1 |
| 9 | Bolo | Rafael Bejarano | Carla Gaines | 30-1 |
| 10 | Firing Line | Gary Stevens | Simon Callaghan | 12-1 |
| 11 | International Star | Miguel Mena | Mike Maker | 20-1 |
| 12 | Itsaknockout | Luis Saez | Todd Pletcher | 30-1 |
| 13 | Keen Ice | Kent Desormeaux | Dale Romans | 50-1 |
| 14 | Frosted | Joel Rosario | Kiaran McLaughlin | 15-1 |
| 15 | War Story | Joe Talamo | Tom Amoss | 50-1 |
| 16 | Mr. Z | Ramon Vazquez | D. Wayne Lukas | 50-1 |
| 17 | American Pharoah | Victor Espinoza | Bob Baffert | 5-2 |
| 18 | Upstart | Jose Ortiz | Rick Violette Jr. | 15-1 |
| 19 | Far Right | Mike Smith | Ron Moquett | 30-1 |
| 20 | Frammento | Corey Nakatani | Nick Zito | 50-1 |
It's often difficult to gauge how the starting post plays a part in a horse's chances of striding to the winner's circle at Churchill Downs. Numerous factors come into play, including what tactics the particular jockey prefers to deploy.
For example, someone like Calvin Borel loves to make his move close to the rail. Borel has won this race three times, with the last of those victories coming in 2010. Borel will have to work to get inside from the seventh post aboard El Kabeir.
Here is an overview of all the Kentucky Derby winners in recent history with respect to where they started:
| 1 | 8 | 1986, Ferdinand |
| 2 | 7 | 1978, Affirmed |
| 3 | 5 | 1998, Real Quiet |
| 4 | 5 | 2010, Super Saver |
| 5 | 9 | 2014, California Chrome |
| 6 | 2 | 1993, Sea Hero |
| 7 | 6 | 2007, Street Sense |
| 8 | 8 | 2009, Mine That Bird |
| 9 | 4 | 1972, Riva Ridge |
| 10 | 9 | 2005, Giacomo |
| 11 | 2 | 1998, Winning Colors |
| 12 | 3 | 1971, Canonero II |
| 13 | 3 | 2004, Smarty Jones |
| 14 | 2 | 1961, Carry Back |
| 15 | 3 | 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus |
| 16 | 5 | 2013, Orb |
| 17 | 0 | N/A |
| 18 | 1 | 1982, Gato Del Sol |
| 19 | 1 | 2012, I'll Have Another |
| 20 | 1 | 2008, Big Brown |
So when California Chrome commenced his valiant bid for the Triple Crown by riding to a win from the fifth post last year, it continued the trend of no one being able to overcome the No. 17 position to finish first.
Whoever starts in the 17th spot can therefore be all but excluded when discussing the top contenders in The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports.
To get back to the top candidates to reign supreme, American Pharoah is trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. Although he has won the Kentucky Derby three times before, Baffert hasn't had a winning entry since 2002, and he'll be keen to break that spell this time around.
Tim Wilkin of the Albany Times Union logged what D. Wayne Lukas, one of Baffert's prolific peers, had to say about American Pharoah:
That type of ringing endorsement from Lukas doesn't come too easily. It only fortifies the notion that American Pharoah is the horse to beat.
ESPN's Chris Fallica points out how Baffert hasn't had the greatest history with top favorites, though:
In the event that American Pharoah doesn't get it done, Baffert has another ace in the hole in Dortmund. The Santa Anita Derby champion hasn't lost in six career starts. Based on Baffert's background and impeccable resume, he seems destined to trot out a winner in 2015.
No one can really be discounted because it takes tremendous work and a pure type of horse for a team to have the means to grace the grounds in Louisville in the first place.

Todd Pletcher is a fine trainer in his own right and has two of the biggest challengers to Baffert's formidable duo. Materiality won the Florida Derby and is in Pletcher's stable, while Carpe Diem also figures to be a factor after his triumph at the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.
Whoever emerges victorious will garner inevitable Triple Crown hype. Fresh off California Chrome's impressive double at the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, expectations will be high, and the pressure will be great.
Even if one of Baffert's two favorites win, he and his connections will have to deal with the scrutiny of pulling off horse racing's trifecta for the first time in more than three decades. It's a nice problem to have, but it will be interesting to see how they handle it if the opportunity comes to pass.


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