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Exercise rider George Alverez gallops Kentucky Derby hopeful American Pharaoh over the track at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., Saturday, April 18, 2015.  (AP Photo/Garry Jones)
Exercise rider George Alverez gallops Kentucky Derby hopeful American Pharaoh over the track at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., Saturday, April 18, 2015. (AP Photo/Garry Jones)Garry Jones/Associated Press

Kentucky Derby 2015 Post Positions: Latest Odds, Historical Stats for Each Slot

Matt FitzgeraldMay 1, 2015

The post positions for the 2015 Kentucky Derby have been set. Now an elite field of competitors and connections will have a better idea of how to game-plan in their bids for the first leg of the Triple Crown at Churchill Downs on Saturday.

In the 141st annual Run for the Roses in Louisville, the prohibitive favorite appears to be American Pharoah. With four straight victories, including the Arkansas Derby most recently, he's a deserving No. 1 odds-on choice.

Check out the latest odds below now that the post positions have been revealed:

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1 Ocho Ocho Ocho Elvis Trujillo Jim Cassidy 50-1
2 Carpe Diem John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 8-1
3 Materiality Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 12-1
4 Tencendur Manny Franco George Weaver 30-1
5 Danzig Moon Julien Leparoux Mark Casse 30-1
6 Mubtaahij Christophe Soumillon Mike de Kock 20-1
7 El Kabeir Calvin Borel John Terranova II 30-1
8 Dortmund Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 3-1
9 Bolo Rafael Bejarano Carla Gaines 30-1
10 Firing Line Gary Stevens Simon Callaghan 12-1
11International Star Miguel Mena Mike Maker 20-1
12Itsaknockout Luis Saez Todd Pletcher 30-1
13Keen Ice Kent Desormeaux Dale Romans 50-1
14Frosted Joel Rosario Kiaran McLaughlin 15-1
15War Story Joe Talamo Tom Amoss 50-1
16Mr. Z Ramon Vazquez D. Wayne Lukas 50-1
17American Pharoah Victor Espinoza Bob Baffert 5-2
18Upstart Jose Ortiz Rick Violette Jr. 15-1
19Far Right Mike Smith Ron Moquett 30-1
20FrammentoCorey NakataniNick Zito50-1

It's often difficult to gauge how the starting post plays a part in a horse's chances of striding to the winner's circle at Churchill Downs. Numerous factors come into play, including what tactics the particular jockey prefers to deploy.

For example, someone like Calvin Borel loves to make his move close to the rail. Borel has won this race three times, with the last of those victories coming in 2010. Borel will have to work to get inside from the seventh post aboard El Kabeir.

Here is an overview of all the Kentucky Derby winners in recent history with respect to where they started:

1 8 1986, Ferdinand
2 7 1978, Affirmed
3 5 1998, Real Quiet
4 5 2010, Super Saver
5 92014, California Chrome
6 2 1993, Sea Hero
7 6 2007, Street Sense
8 8 2009, Mine That Bird
9 4 1972, Riva Ridge
10 9 2005, Giacomo
11 2 1998, Winning Colors
12 3 1971, Canonero II
13 3 2004, Smarty Jones
14 2 1961, Carry Back
15 3 2000, Fusaichi Pegasus
16 5 2013, Orb
17 0 N/A
18 1 1982, Gato Del Sol
19 1 2012, I'll Have Another
20 1 2008, Big Brown

So when California Chrome commenced his valiant bid for the Triple Crown by riding to a win from the fifth post last year, it continued the trend of no one being able to overcome the No. 17 position to finish first.

Whoever starts in the 17th spot can therefore be all but excluded when discussing the top contenders in The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports.

To get back to the top candidates to reign supreme, American Pharoah is trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. Although he has won the Kentucky Derby three times before, Baffert hasn't had a winning entry since 2002, and he'll be keen to break that spell this time around.

Tim Wilkin of the Albany Times Union logged what D. Wayne Lukas, one of Baffert's prolific peers, had to say about American Pharoah:

That type of ringing endorsement from Lukas doesn't come too easily. It only fortifies the notion that American Pharoah is the horse to beat.

ESPN's Chris Fallica points out how Baffert hasn't had the greatest history with top favorites, though:

In the event that American Pharoah doesn't get it done, Baffert has another ace in the hole in Dortmund. The Santa Anita Derby champion hasn't lost in six career starts. Based on Baffert's background and impeccable resume, he seems destined to trot out a winner in 2015.

No one can really be discounted because it takes tremendous work and a pure type of horse for a team to have the means to grace the grounds in Louisville in the first place.

Todd Pletcher is a fine trainer in his own right and has two of the biggest challengers to Baffert's formidable duo. Materiality won the Florida Derby and is in Pletcher's stable, while Carpe Diem also figures to be a factor after his triumph at the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.

Whoever emerges victorious will garner inevitable Triple Crown hype. Fresh off California Chrome's impressive double at the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, expectations will be high, and the pressure will be great.

Even if one of Baffert's two favorites win, he and his connections will have to deal with the scrutiny of pulling off horse racing's trifecta for the first time in more than three decades. It's a nice problem to have, but it will be interesting to see how they handle it if the opportunity comes to pass.

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