Mayweather vs. Pacquiao: Predictions for Biggest Trends During Anticipated Bout
The boxing match between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao will finally give fans exactly what they wanted to see for years.
While there will be plenty of debate as to which elite competitor will actually win the bout (Mayweather is the early favorite at -210, via Odds Shark), we should generally have a feel for what to expect throughout the match. Each fighter has had a distinct style throughout his career and will try to use it to get the better of his opponent.
With this in mind, here are predictions of trends to look forward to in the highly anticipated matchup.
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Pacquiao Will Be More Aggressive
Throughout his career, Pacquiao has made a living on simply being quicker than his opponents. Strategy is not always necessary when you can just beat a defense with a fast array of punches every time.
The Filipino superstar knows his best attributes going into this bout:
Many boxers go into a match against Mayweather with fear, allowing the legend of the elite fighter to scare them into changing their routine. This will not be the case with Pacquiao, who considers himself as good as anyone else in the world.
As soon as the bout begins, Pacquiao will aggressively go after Mayweather with quick jabs and aggressive punches that will keep the entire match entertaining. Whether he is effective early or not, he will stay after it in what he hopes will be a true toe-to-toe competition.
Mayweather's Counters Will Be Extremely Effective
While Pacquiao has always succeeded thanks to his offensive ability, Mayweather will showcase his defense in this one. The undefeated fighter is among the best ever to compete in the sport thanks to his ability to move around the ring and avoid getting hit.
Most importantly, his movement allows him to stay in perfect position for counterpunches. He will use Pacquiao's aggressiveness against him as he waits for the best opportunity to land his hits.
Fellow boxer Tony Bellew explains this as a reason for picking Mayweather:
Pacquiao has struggled at times in the past when facing quality counterpunchers, most notably Juan Manuel Marquez. When he goes all out for punches, he sometimes leaves himself open, and Mayweather will be able to take advantage.
This use of strategy and technique over raw speed is a reason Mayweather has started his career with 47 wins and zero losses.
Judges Will Appreciate Mayweather's Strategy More Than Fans
With the talent of these two fighters, it would likely be a surprise to see any result besides a decision after 12 rounds. From there, the three judges would have to decide which competitor deserves the win.
If the fans are deciding (including a whole lot who don't like Mayweather), Pacquiao would have the upper hand thanks to his aggressiveness and ability to land a high number of punches.
Former boxer Roy Jones Jr. explained to ESPN why he thinks this favors Pacquiao in a potential decision (h/t Chris Williams of Boxing News 24):
"You don’t get Mayweather to engage. Pacquiao’s plan should be to outwork Mayweather and outpoint. He’s not going to be able to force Mayweather to engage. He can do what he wants to do and try, but he can’t force a defensive fighter who’s that skilled and defensive. You can’t make him engage. I think Floyd will have to knockout Pacquiao to win. If there’s a decision, I think Pacquiao wins the decision
"
However, if you look at Mayweather's past victories, the total number of punches hasn't been the story as much as landing the better percentage. His opponent generally is the more aggressive, but he ends up with a higher rate of success.
In Mayweather's last two fights, Marcos Rene Maidana threw a combined 1,430 punches compared to just 752 from the champion. However, a landing percentage of greater than 50 percent each time was the difference as Maidana couldn't do better than 30 percent.
Pacquiao is clearly better than Maidana, but he won't be able to land as many punches as he is used to in this match. This will favor Mayweather, and the judges' scores will reflect it in a potential decision.
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