Bayern Munich vs. Porto: Last-Minute Picks and Prediction for Champions League

Bayern Munich and FC Porto will face off at the Allianz Arena on Tuesday for the second leg of their UEFA Champions League quarterfinal.

Porto head to Germany as the surprise owners of a 3-1 advantage after a brace by Ricardo Quaresma and a goal by Jackson Martinez earned victory at the Estadio do Dragao in the first leg on April 15.

Long considered the favorites for this year’s title, the German side will have to use every ounce of its champion’s pedigree to score two unanswered goals and advance.

Given Bayern’s unmistakable quality and Porto’s advantage on the scoreboard, the tie is precariously poised to fall either way.

Here’s a look at the setup, last-minute picks and a prediction for the final result of Bayern Munich vs. FC Porto.

Bayern’s Home Record Suggests They Will Win the Day…

At first glance, it looks like history is going to pick Bayern Munich.

So far in 2014-15, the Bavarians have won all four home matches in Champions League competition by a combined score of 13-0. That average scoreline of 3-0 per match (as noted in the Bayern tweet below) would be enough to overturn the 3-1 deficit from the first leg against Porto if Bayern could replicate it Tuesday.

Granted, that statistic is skewed by Bayern’s 7-0 victory over Shakhtar Donetsk in the round of 16, but last year’s Ukraine Premier League champions are no joke. Shakhtar managed a 3-3 aggregate scoreline against Porto in their two Group H matches, which is exactly the result Bayern need to squeak through now.

The Bavarians' home record in the CL also includes wins over Manchester City (1-0), Roma (2-0) and CSKA Moscow (3-0). Considering they were in the so-called “group of death,” those results are impressive.

But Porto’s Unbeaten CL Record Argues Bayern May Not Advance

Though history may pick Bayern to win, it doesn’t necessarily mean they’re going through.

Since Bayern are all about scoring and not conceding at home while Porto remains undefeated anywhere (as aptly noted by the Porto tweet below), this is a classic matchup of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object.

Something has to give, but Porto can still advance to the semifinals either way.

A 1-0 victory for the Bavarians (just like that result against City) will preserve their home record, but it would also allow Porto to still advance.

However, since both sides are missing crucial players through injury and suspension (Bayern are without seven of their usual starters, while Porto are without their two most seasoned CL defenders in Danilo and Alex Sandro), it will come down to which side can better adapt.

Given Pep Guardiola’s tradition of moving players around in his lineup all season (Philipp Lahm alone has played practically everywhere in defense and midfield), Bayern have the edge in the tactical matchup when it comes to versatility.

The manager even told the BBC on Monday, “I do not know who will play or who can play. In the past months, I have always decided on my line-up an hour before the game,” so his players are used to being flexible.

Paulo Duarte/Associated Press

Porto’s healthy squad may have capitalized on the German side’s injuries in the first leg, but the loss of Danilo and Sandro (suspension) will be a bigger proportional blow to the visitors’ hopes of advancing.

In other words, Bayern may still be without Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery, but their replacements—Thomas Muller and Mario Gotze—will be more than enough to capitalize on a Porto back line deprived of its two best defenders.

So, despite history’s refusal to take sides on this one, the pick for tactical advantage must go to Bayern.

Bayern’s Defense vs. Porto’s Offense

Dante and Jerome Boateng are probably still having nightmares from their horror show in the first leg (as visualized in the highlights below).

You can guarantee that lackluster defending and general lack of awareness will not be present for Guardiola’s side on Tuesday. Dante and Boateng will be keyed in from the first to the last whistle, meaning Porto’s attacking trio of Quaresma, Martinez and Yacine Brahimi will have to rely more on midfield support for their goals (if any).

Since Lahm will be his tactically brilliant self, covering for the back line and cutting out passes in the midfield before Porto can build up to a killer pass (like he does in the video below), Bayern’s defense will be competent and focused enough to keep a clean sheet.

Pick: Bayern.

The Midfield Battle

Porto’s midfielders will look to press their physical advantage over their German counterparts.

Bayern, on the other hand, will look to take Oliver, Casemiro and Hector Herrera’s physicality out of the game by monopolizing possession.

World Cup winners Lahm and Xabi Alonso will likely combine with La Masia graduate Thiago Alcantara in a center three determined to retain the ball with inventive and proactive passing. Their experience, vision and ability to distribute the ball will keep Porto’s central three chasing shadows for much of the 90 minutes.

Additionally, Lahm, Alonso (note the “oldie but goodie” highlight video below) and Thiago are more adept at picking out incisive passes from both deep in the midfield and up close in the attacking third than their Porto counterparts. With the Portuguese side’s back line lacking crucial speed and leadership in Danilo and Sandro, that task will be considerably easier.

While this head-to-head matchup will be significantly influenced by the center official’s approach (more physical play benefits Porto, more whistles benefit Bayern), the home team will always hold the advantage when it comes to link-up play going forward.

Pick: Bayern.

Manuel Neuer vs. Fabiano

When it comes to picking the most influential goalkeeper in this battle, you would be crazy not to select Manuel Neuer.

The World Cup-winning No. 1 may not be perfect, as suggested by his conceding a penalty in the first leg after being left high and dry, but he’s pretty close. Not only is he a great shot stopper, but he also has the confidence and technical ability to press high as a sweeper ‘keeper.

When you combine skills like the kind shown in the video below with the awareness to come out of the box at the right time, your team will have immeasurable confidence in you.

Bayern will be short on confidence heading into this clash, but Neuer’s presence will help settle nerves. Additionally, his sweeper ‘keeping will allow him to cut out fast breaks and preserve Bayern’s intensity when his teammates are pressing high (which they will be doing all game long).

Without much relief from high pressure in the form of long clearances, Porto will be in for a long night.

Finally, when it comes to the goalkeeper vs. forwards head-to-heads, you would also have to favor Neuer. The German stands a better chance of keeping Porto’s front three out than Fabiano has of blanking Muller, Gotze and Robert Lewandowski if they find openings (which, thanks to Bayern’s midfield, they will).

Pick: Manuel Neuer.

Final Result: Bayern 2-0 FC Porto

The loss of personnel at the back will be too great for Porto to overcome. Bayern’s renewed focus and determination in front of their home crowd will bring out their best, and they will narrowly survive the tie with a 2-0 victory.

Look for Lewandowski to use his close control to score inside the box early in the second half and Muller to smash home a header from a late set-piece play.

Considering Porto’s constant threat of away goals, it will be a nervy finish—but Bayern’s depth and quality will shine through.