San Francisco 49ers: Analyzing Latest NFL Draft Reports and Rumors
With nine days—and counting—until the 2015 NFL draft, rumors are flying about the San Francisco 49ers. Whom will they draft? Will they trade up, trade down or stand pat? Are they satisfied with their current roster at, for example, offensive guard or cornerback, or are those potential first-round targets? What draft reports hint at a potential strategy, and which are so much smoke?
Obviously, we won’t really know for sure until the draft begins on April 30, but we can at least start peeling through the layers of rumors, trying to separate the fact from the fiction and the wise plans from the poorly thought-out ones.
It’s good that the team is kicking the tires on a variety of players and considering a number of scenarios, but it’s important that it eventually zeros in on the strategy that will best help it in 2015 and beyond.
Let’s take a quick look around the Internet at some of the rumors circulating around the team at the moment and editorialize a bit on them. Are the 49ers making the best use of their predraft visits? Would this or that rumored plan be a good one or a waste of resources? Is Trent Baalke once again a draft ninja, or will the poor handling of the offseason coaching change bleed into the handling of the draft? Let’s take a look.
Jared Shanker: 49ers Host Florida State DE Mario Edwards
1 of 5
Shanker, a college football writer for ESPN, is reporting that the 49ers will use one of their 30 predraft visits on Mario Edwards, a defensive lineman from Florida State. This will be the fourth predraft visit the 49ers have officially used on a defensive lineman, according to Niners Nation's David Fucillo, but this is one of the more interesting cases.
The previous three visits came from first-round prospects Arik Armstead and Eddie Goldman and potential seventh-round prospect Tory Slater. Edwards, on the other hand, is projected to go closer to the end of the second round or beginning of the third, with a solid chance of falling all the way to the 49ers’ natural third-round selection.
Like Armstead, Edwards will need a little bit of work before being ready to be an every-down contributor in the NFL. That’s an issue, but it’s a far more acceptable problem to have with a third-round pick rather than with the 15th overall selection. If Justin Smith returns, Edwards can sit and learn behind him and Darnell Dockett and gradually work his way into the rotation.
Plus, using a third-round pick on a defensive end opens up the first two picks for use on more pressing needs—a long-term receiver option and an inside linebacker for instance. If the 49ers are happy with a developing player like Edwards—or Stanford’s Henry Anderson or Mississippi State’s Preston Smith, to name two other possibilities—they can use their first-round pick elsewhere and get better overall value.
Ian Rapoport and Albert Breer: 49ers Host Missouri WR Dorial Green-Beckham
2 of 5
Well, here we go. One of the most talented yet controversial wide receivers in the draft has been officially connected with the 49ers, according to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport and Albert Breer. He visited the 49ers this past week, occupying one of the 30 official predraft visit slots.
On pure talent alone, Green-Beckham is one of the most exciting players in this draft class. Yes, the fact that he has only one season of actual production on the field is concerning, but there is no better combination of size (6'5", 237 lbs), speed (4.49 40-yard dash) and athletic ability in this year’s draft at the position.
However, Green-Beckham brings with him a small army of red flags and character concerns. Bryan Fischer of NFL.com sums it up nicely:
"Back in 2014, Green-Beckham was dismissed from Missouri after being the subject of a burglary and assault investigation by police in which he allegedly pushed a female down some stairs during the incident. He didn't face charges from the incident but did wind up transferring to Oklahoma, where he spent an entire season on the practice squad before declaring early for the draft. Throw in being arrested twice for marijuana-related incidents and there's plenty of research interested teams will want to do on "DGB" in order to determine if he's the right fit.
"
The question is, then, is Green-Beckham worth the 15th overall pick? I’ve been going back and forth over it this entire offseason, weighing his obvious talent with his equally obvious issues. All the talent in the world doesn’t help the team if, like Josh Gordon, Green-Beckham is unable to take the field.
As it stands right now, there’s a provisional "yes" for Green-Beckham with the 15th pick in that he’s one of the 15 players who would help the 49ers the most.
However, there are anywhere from five to eight receivers I would be more comfortable with than DGB—his high ranking is more a sign of San Francisco’s need rather than Green-Beckham’s talent. I would feel safer using the first-round pick on a defensive lineman, linebacker or cornerback and taking someone like USC’s Nelson Agholor in the second round rather than gambling on DGB at No. 15.
A trade back or pick in the second round would help balance some of those value versus talent versus character-concerns issues, so if DGB falls, the 49ers should pounce. I’d be very, very wary of him with the 15th pick, however.
Devin Smith: Ohio State WR Devin Smith’s Visit Went Well
3 of 5
While it may be cheating to use a player’s own interview to report on a meeting, Niners Nation passes along the fact that Devin Smith was thrilled with his official interview with the 49ers, according to his interview on SiriusXM NFL Radio. He said that he got a “good vibe” from the coaches and staff, per SiriusXM NFL Radio on Twitter, and that he was excited about the possibility of ending up in San Francisco.
For a team that claims it doesn’t need to draft a receiver, as Trent Baalke said in a predraft press conference, it sure is talking to a lot of receivers.
Including Smith and Green-Beckham, the 49ers have used eight of their 30 predraft visits on receivers, per Fucillo, more than any other position. That’s not including the five other receivers they met with at the combine, Shrine Game or local pro day. All the tea leaves are there for the 49ers to use one of their first two picks on a receiver.
Should that receiver be Smith? Before the 49ers went out and signed Torrey Smith, Devin Smith would have been higher on my list, but now, these two fill something of the same niche.
Both are speedsters and deep threats who need to work on the short and intermediate game more. Devin Smith, at this point, is lightning in a bottle—you unleash his deep speed on go routes, have him get past the defenders and make a huge play. His route running and other actual wide receiver skills still need polish.
To be fair, that’s something you can actually work on—you can’t teach speed. Still, if both he and Nelson Agholor are on the board when the 49ers pick in the second round, it’s a tossup, and I might well go with Agholor.
Between Smith, Green-Beckham, Agholor and Miami’s Phillip Dorsett, there are plenty of intriguing second-round names the 49ers could take. I still believe it’s best if one of the top receivers falls to the 49ers at No. 15, but they don’t need to feel like they have to take a receiver.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
ESPN Insider: San Francisco Should Trade Up for Michigan State CB Trae Waynes
4 of 5
ESPN Insider Mark Dominik recently published a piece where he tried to come up with some logical first-round trades for this year’s draft. This includes one trade for San Francisco. He argues that the 49ers should give up their first- and third-round picks to trade with the Atlanta Falcons, where they would receive the eighth overall pick and select cornerback Trae Waynes.
Dominik explains:
"This year the Niners have a huge need at cornerback, and the more I watch Waynes, the more convinced I'm that he is the best corner in the draft, with great speed, size and physicality. The Niners might have to move ahead of the Bears at No. 7 to get him. But if San Francisco is confident he'll drop to No. 8 -- and Chicago could very well take one of the top receivers, Amari Cooper or Kevin White, if either falls to the seventh pick -- a third-rounder isn't much of a price to pay for the opportunity to land the draft's best prospect at your biggest need position.
"
Well, that’s all well and good, but I strongly disagree that the 49ers have a huge need at cornerback. What they have is a lot of potential unproven starters.
Tramaine Brock has already shown he can handle a starting position. Jimmie Ward is last year’s first-round pick and deserves more time at the spot. Dontae Johnson looked very good in limited action last year. The 49ers just signed former San Diego Charger Shareece Wright. They have Keith Reaser and Kenneth Acker coming off of injury. With that lot, they can put together a secondary.
Yes, Trae Waynes would be an improvement in the secondary. If the 49ers stayed put at the 15th pick and took Waynes, it would be an entirely defensible pick. However, trading up for him, considering the needs at the other positions, would be an odd move.
A trade up to eight would be worth it if the 49ers ended up with Amari Cooper or Kevin White, each of whom could conceivably fall to that spot. A trade to 10 or 11 could end up with the 49ers getting wide receiver DeVante Parker, also a better selection than Waynes would be. Moving up to eight for a cornerback seems shortsighted.
If anything, the 49ers should trade down in the first round, getting an extra second-round pick and taking a receiver from the second batch like Breshad Perriman. I wouldn’t consider this potential trade solid at all.
Dan Kadar: Arik Armstead Is the Consensus Choice
5 of 5
Looking at an individual mock draft isn’t very useful. Its results are going to be colored by the individual writers’ biases and presuppositions. When you start looking at a vast number of mocks, however, you begin to see trends and patterns that will tell you something about strategy and possibilities.
That’s what Dan Kadar did for his recent mock draft at SB Nation. He looked at 20 mock drafts and saw what picks were used by which teams to find trends and patterns.
For the 49ers, 40 percent of the mock drafts picked Oregon defensive lineman Arik Armstead. The next most common pick, Malcom Brown, was taken in only 15 percent of drafts, with Trae Waynes finishing just behind with 10 percent. Eddie Goldman, Jalen Collins, Kevin White, Marcus Peters, Randy Gregory, Shane Ray and Shaq Thompson rounded out the set.
"As I’ve explained in previous mock drafts, Armstead makes sense as a natural 3-4 end who could come in as a high-upside choice for the 49ers. It’s also no surprise that almost all of the picks for the 49ers are on the defensive side of the ball.
"
Well, it should come as some surprise because the 49ers still have a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball. But defensive line is still a major need for the team, and there are a number of scenarios in which Armstead makes sense.
Specifically, that scenario is this one:
- Top talents Leonard Williams and Jameis Winston are off the board.
- Five receivers have been taken: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, DeVante Parker, Breshad Perriman and Jaelen Strong.
- No team is at all interested in trading up.
In that situation, Armstead would be a very solid pick despite the developmental aspects in his game—he’s more raw talent and potential than polished player at this point.
Giving him to Jim Tomsula is probably the best-case scenario for Armstead, especially if he also gets to learn behind Justin Smith and Darnell Dockett for a season the team needs him. He’s just not a Day 1 contributor, which is a bit worrisome with the 15th pick.
A 40 percent chance of the 49ers picking him seems high to me, but he is one of the six most likely players I’d see them taking at 15th overall, alongside those top five receivers. I can’t imagine them dipping down for Malcom Brown or someone like that; it’s Armstead’s talent rather than a pressing need that would see them grab a lineman with the 15th overall pick.
Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
.png?w=480)
