How Barcelona, Atletico and Real Are Gearing Up for Champions League Second Legs
Barring a major shock, Spain looks set to have two representatives in this season's UEFA Champions League semi-finals—but which two?
Never say never, but with three away goals from their first leg at Paris Saint-Germain, Barcelona look home and hosed. As for who’s going through in the all-Madrid affair between Real and Atletico, your guess is as good as mine.
Barcelona warmed up for their second-leg home clash by beating a Valencia side that created more chances in the first half against the Catalans than Manchester City and PSG had managed between them. Just how Barcelona came out of the game as victors has left many people, myself included, scratching their heads. Perhaps we should be giving a little more credit to Luis Enrique for thinking on his feet and changing things mid-game as he has done on many occasions this season.
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The initial inclusion of both Javier Mascherano and Sergo Busquets in midfield didn’t work. Luis Enrique realised it and restored the balance of the side by moving Mascherano back into central defence, Jeremy Mathieu to Adriano’s place at left-back and Ivan Rakitic to central midfield.
As a result, Valencia found themselves unable to maintain the furious pace and pressure high up the pitch they had shown in an exhilarating first-half performance.
Unfortunately Luis Enrique’s tactics still manage to create doubts in the minds of many Barcelona fans.
This is unlikely to bother him unduly, and he will justifiably point to a season where, up to now, he has taken his side to a definite Spanish Cup final, a practically guaranteed place in the Champions League semi-final and top of the table in a Liga title race that is still in their hands.
He might also show them a copy of El Mundo Deportivo that states unequivocally that he is, after 49 games in charge (the PSG game will be his 50th), the most successful manager in the history of FC Barcelona.
Under his guidance, Barcelona have won 41, drawn three and lost five, with a scoring record of 141 for, 31 against.
Statistically, the next most successful coach was Helenio Herrera, who between the end of the 1957-58 and beginning of 1958-59 seasons achieved 40 wins, five draws and five defeats.
But here’s the rub. Third and fourth come Pep Guardiola and Tata Martino, who in their first 50 matches achieved exactly the same figures, 37 wins, eight draws, five defeats. Pep went on to receive virtual saintly status for his achievements while all Tata got was his P45.
The difference, of course, was that while Guardiola won everything, Tata won nothing and Luis Enrique would do well to remember that, so far, neither has he.
I still have reservations about the style or projected future of a Barcelona under his leadership and how he doesn’t seem too concerned that La Masia creates different types of players than the ones he uses in his first team.
But I can’t find fault with the results or his clever use of rotation. His team is relatively fresh, certainly compared to Real Madrid and Bayern Munich, and at this stage of the season, that is absolutely crucial.
For Carlo Ancelotti at Real Madrid, it’s make-up-your-mind time.
The loss of Luka Modric and Gareth Bale to injury is not exactly welcome but statistically once again, you might be surprised to find out that Real Madrid’s results, with or without the two players, are more or less the same.
With Modric in the side they score more goals but also concede more, so as long as Karim Benzema and Cristiano Ronaldo are in the side as attackers, the absence of Modric and Bale should not make a huge difference.
What their injuries do tell us, however, is that this is a side being penalised for not having rotated properly in the past and the blame for that falls roundly into Ancelotti’s court.
With three top-class centre-backs to pick from, I would not be the least bit surprised to see him ask Pepe to move into midfield, where he can add some steel against Atletico.
It will certainly be a defensive move, but this is a game that I feel fairly sure will be won by the narrowest of margins and tiniest of details.
Let’s not forget as well that the absence of full-back Marcelo—who against Malaga at the weekend did at least four very passable impersonations of a centre-forward—will also reduce Real’s attacking options. Make no mistake: Under normal circumstances the Brazilian defender’s role as a winger is an essential part of their offensive plan.
Their main concern will be to stop Atletico from scoring because they know that if they do, then Simeone’s men will defend the lead with their lives.
When I spoke to Koke earlier on this season, he made no secret of the fact Atletico had unfinished business in the Champions League. Of course they would have loved to retain the La Liga title but making a statement in this Champions League after last year’s last-gasp heartbreak is definitely top of everyone’s wish list at the Vicente Calderon.
They showed their desire, going through against Bayer Leverkusen in the previous round despite a poor away first-leg performance where they were lucky to come away with only a 1-0 deficit.
While the starting 11 are weaker than they were last season, the squad is stronger overall, and that fundamentally could make the difference. Mario Suarez is out, but the feisty Mario Mandzukic, although doubtful, could play.
Antoine Griezmann is getting better and better, and a goal from him would be absolutely crucial, while Fernando Torres, though not making the impact on his return that many hoped for, has the perfect attitude and approach for a game like this.
Atletico have always been the masters of scoring from set pieces, to which they have added the long-throw threat (a la Rory Delap) from Jesus Gamez.
Who’s going to win? As things stand, Atletico probably start as slight favourites and 0-0 in the first leg was a good scoreline for them. In a match that is as 50-50 as it’s possible to be, one goal from a set piece might just be enough for them, but anything’s possible.
