Wladimir Klitschko vs. Bryant Jennings: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight
On Saturday night, the true heavyweight champion of the world, Wladimir Klitschko, returns to the United States after seven long years as he faces undefeated contender Bryant Jennings at the mecca of boxing, Madison Square Garden.
Boxing is on the rise in 2015, and the heavyweight division is gaining traction at the same time. A big-time heavyweight bout in the Garden is the perfect event to sandwich between last weekend's fight-of-the-year candidate between Lucas Matthysse and Ruslan Provodnikov and May 2's superfight between Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Manny Pacquiao.
Jennings is a heavy underdog (Odds Shark has him at 8-1)—and for good reason. But if he can pull off the upset, it will be one more outstanding boxing story in a year that is already filling up with them.
Tale of the Tape
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Klitschko is the bigger man in this fight and the far more experienced fighter. As his KO percentage demonstrates, he also has the edge in power.
Jennings' only edges are in youth and reach. At 30, he's in his physical prime, while the champion is pushing 40.
Jennings' 84-inch reach is almost freakish. He has the arms and shoulders of a 7'0" man sitting on his 6'3" frame.
Main Storylines
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Klitschko turned professional in 1996 after winning gold in the super heavyweight division at the Atlanta Olympic Games. Ross Puritty knocked Klitschko out in 1998, but Klitschko came back to capture the WBO world title from Chris Byrd in 2000.
Klitschko lost that title to Corrie Sanders in 2003 by a stunning Round 2 TKO. A little over a year later, Lamon Brewster stopped him.
At the time, it seemed reasonable to speculate that he was finished as a factor at the top of the heavyweight division. He was an impressive physical specimen with undeniable technical skill, but he had also been knocked out three times in six years.
Instead of packing it in, Klitschko turned to legendary trainer Emanuel Steward, who tweaked the big man's mental and physical weaknesses and turned him into a nearly unstoppable machine. In the 11 years since his last knockout loss, Klitschko has built one of the most dominant runs in the history of the heavyweight division.
In 2006, Klitschko captured the IBF belt in a rematch with Byrd. He added the WBO share of the crown in 2008 in his last appearance in Madison Square Garden, when he beat Sultan Ibragimov.
In 2011, Klitschko beat David Haye to add the WBA title to his collection. The only title he never won was the WBC version, which his older brother, Vitaly, held. Vitaly retired at the end of 2013, and Deontay Wilder has since captured his vacated belt.
But Klitschko is still the true champion at heavyweight.
Aside from Wilder, Jennings is the biggest potential heavyweight star to emerge in the United States in years. He's recorded wins over legitimate contenders such as Mike Perez and Artur Szpilka.
He's a long shot to upset Klitschko, but he's probably as ready to try as he's ever going to be. Jennings is a likable family man from one of America's premier boxing cities, Philadelphia. If he can do the improbable, he will explode into stardom.
Strengths
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Klitschko
Klitschko is a picture-perfect heavyweight boxer. He has a punishing jab and outstanding lateral movement. He has a tight guard and excels at wearing down shorter opponents in the clinch.
Klitschko's hook is a long-range missile. His right hand is the weapon that earned him his nickname, Dr. Steelhammer.
Jennings
Jennings is a smart, athletic boxer. His astonishing 84-inch reach allows him to touch his opponents with his jab and straight right before they can get into range on him, but it's an even better defensive tool.
Because his arms are so gigantic in relation to his body, they function as an oversized shield. He does a great job of blocking and returning.
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Weaknesses
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Klitschko
Klitschko has shown no true signs of weakness in more than a decade. But it's impossible to forget the memory of his three knockout losses early in his career.
He's also 39, which is traditionally very old for a fighter. He still appears to be in tremendous shape, but the wear and tear a challenging fight will put on his large and aging frame will test it.
Jennings
Jennings did not take up boxing until 24, which is ancient for beginning a career in the sport. While he has shown tremendous natural ability, he at times looks stiff and unnatural in the ring. His lack of experience has to be viewed as a major liability against one of the most seasoned champions of all time.
Klitschko Will Win If...
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The big challenge for Klitschko in this defense will be dealing with an opponent who has a superior reach. Klitschko is accustomed to staying back out of range and battering opponents with his punishing jab.
Against Jennings, he might find himself getting touched before he can manage to score with his own lead. It's going to be important that he use his lateral movement to slip to one side and seize the angle.
But if Jennings is aggressive with his jab, it will open up opportunities for Klitschko to come over the top with a monster right hand. He should look to time Jennings' jab and punish him when he tries to use it.
An important factor for Klitschko in this fight will be his lead hook. His left hook is a tricky weapon. It often starts out looking like a jab, only to get altered midway through its path, turning into a scorching, chopping hook.
If Klitschko can connect with that hook, it will allow him to set up the big straight right.
Jennings Will Win If...
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Jennings has improved in his short career as his competition has gotten better. That's going to need to be the case again Saturday night, when he faces one of the best heavyweight champions in history.
Jennings should make good use of his reach by getting off first with his jab. If he can be first with his jab, it will help him control the pace of the fight and make it into a true battle for the seemingly invulnerable champion.
Jennings should also exploit the fact that he's the shorter man here by coming up from below with his uppercuts. His long arms will allow him to drill that punch from far outside.
Jennings needs to go after Klitschko's body, as well. No challenger has really had the ability to get inside on Klitschko and pound at his torso. But Jennings' long reach should give him the chance to do this, so long as he can string those body shots smoothly off his jab.
Prediction
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I admire Klitschko and what he has accomplished in the sport, but as an American fan and writer, I'd be thrilled to see Jennings pull this one off. A showdown for the undisputed title between Jennings and Deontay Wilder would be the biggest heavyweight fight in the United States in a generation.
It's the kind of fight that fans my age have spent years yearning for.
Unfortunately, as a realistic, hard-bitten boxing writer, I have to look at this rationally. And ultimately, I have to pick Klitschko to roll to victory again.
Klitschko is the better, more experienced boxer and has a big edge in power. Jennings will look better than many might expect him to, but he'll go down by a fairly one-sided decision.
I would love to see Klitschko fight Wilder this year and then the undefeated Tyson Fury after that. But I wouldn't mind if Wilder and Fury fought each other first.
Either way, there is potential for the excitement to keep building in the heavyweight division over the next year or two as Klitschko's storied career winds down.
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