Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao: Ranking Most Likely Outcomes for Superfight

Fans have been waiting to see Floyd Mayweather fight Manny Pacquiao since the early days of the first Obama administration. The fight has appeared by turns all but made and then forever out of reach. 

But now, at long last, the biggest fight of this generation is less than two weeks away. While neither man is exactly the force he was when this fight was first called for a half-decade ago, they remain the two top stars in the sport. 

Frankly, their advancing years might just end up being the final ingredient that was necessary to make this fight truly exciting. When an aging star loses a half-step, it forces him to sit a bit longer in the pocket and take a few more risks. 

Fans have been arguing over the potential outcome of this fight for years. On May 2, all that speculation will come to an end. Meanwhile, here are the five potential outcomes, ranked in order of likelihood.

5. Floyd Mayweather by Stoppage

Floyd Mayweather has not stopped an opponent since Ricky Hatton in 2007, setting aside his Round 4 knockout of Victor Ortiz in 2011. While I don't view the Ortiz KO as a cheap shot, but rather an example of Ortiz's mental weakness, it can't be viewed as a knockout in the traditional sense. 

Mayweather is a very small welterweight and simply hasn't had the power in that division that he showed at the lower weights. While he ranks among the most accurate punchers in boxing history, he is not a busy puncher, which makes a stoppage by attrition unlikely for him. 

So Mayweather winning by KO has to be viewed as the least-likely outcome for this fight. Still, it is a mistake to discount the possibility entirely. Pacquiao has been knocked out three times in his career, most recently by Juan Manuel Marquez in 2012. 

While Mayweather, like Marquez, is an outstanding counterpuncher, he has never relied on the aggression and risk that Marquez employs. Marquez was in dangerous trouble when he caught up to Pacquiao in their fourth fight. His nose was busted and his legs were showing wobble. 

A defensive master like Mayweather will be very unlikely to put himself in a similar position simply to land one big shot. Then again, he may not be able to avoid it. At 38, he's clearly not as mobile as he once was, and Pacquiao's speedy, southpaw stance might force him to stay in tight and mix it up more than he has traditionally needed to. 

In an ironic twist, if Mayweather does score a stoppage in this fight, it might be as a direct result of Pacquiao's success at negating his traditional defensive brilliance. It cannot be overlooked that Mayweather's best weapon is the straight right, which is often Kryptonite for an aggressive southpaw like Pacquiao. 

4. Manny Pacquiao by Stoppage

Like Floyd Mayweather, Manny Pacquiao's power has shown signs of decline in recent years. His last stoppage victory came against Miguel Cotto in 2009.

Pacquiao definitely does not seem to possess the same explosive power that he did five or six years ago. In his recent fights against Brandon Rios and Chris Algieri, his speed and deft use of angles allowed him to treat both opponents as punching bags.

Yet he was unable to finish either of them.

Still, if this fight ends in a stoppage, it's more likely to be scored by Pacquiao than Mayweather. He is the more offensively oriented fighter and will likely have more need to sell out for a big attack.

Pacquiao's right hook is a potent weapon for stifling Mayweather's tricky shoulder roll. Expect him to use it to set up some good scoring combinations against Mayweather.

It shouldn't come as a complete shock if one of those combinations leads to an early conclusion.

3. Manny Pacquiao by Decision

While Manny Pacquiao burst onto the scene over a decade ago as an explosive, left-handed puncher, his years spent with Freddie Roach have transformed him into an elite technical boxer. While his physical attributes are still what separate him from the pack at the top level of the sport, he employs science perfectly suited for those attributes. 

I do not expect Pacquiao to earn a decision victory over Floyd Mayweather, but I won't be shocked if it happens. 

For one thing, in close rounds, judges tend to score in favor of the more aggressive fighter. If Pacquiao can manage to crowd Mayweather and throw punches at him in flurries, it might not end up mattering if Mayweather is slipping and blocking most of those punches while landing more solidly in return.

In the chaos of the fight, the judges might simply see Pacquiao pushing the pace and throwing more punches. 

Still, it will be a challenge for Pacquiao to consistently crowd and cut off Mayweather. Pacquiao supporters who point to Marcos Maidana's ability to crowd Mayweather in their first fight are looking at the evidence selectively.

Maidana is a bigger man than Pacquiao and weighed 163 pounds the night of the first fight. Pacquiao will be nearly 20 pounds lighter; he's not going to have the same success bullying Mayweather. 

2. A Draw

Jae C. Hong/Associated Press

After all the years fans have spent waiting for this fight, a draw would probably not be greeted with enthusiasm. However, I think it's the second-most likely outcome for this fight. 

I expect many rounds of this fight to be difficult to score. With all three judges sitting at different angles, don't expect them to score each round identically. 

Manny Pacquiao's aggression and activity could allow him to edge out many of the rounds in the early part of the fight. Floyd Mayweather's ability to analyze and adjust to an opponent might allow him to pull even in the second half. 

A draw wouldn't be a disaster, so long as the fight itself is exciting. An inconclusive decision would set up an even bigger rematch.

1. Floyd Mayweather by Decision

Floyd Mayweather has won 47 straight professional fights, dating back to 1996, and ultimately, it's hard to bet against a winning streak that is nearly two full decades long. 

It's fair to rank Manny Pacquiao as the most dangerous opponent Mayweather has ever faced, and at 38, it's reasonable to speculate that Father Time might be creeping up on Mayweather. 

So far, though, he's shown no concrete signs of aging. Mayweather has maintained his body like the piece of precision equipment that it is, and he's never taken significant punishment in the ring. 

Mayweather could certainly lose this fight, but there is a reason that Las Vegas views him as the favorite, according to Odds Shark. He is one of the best defensive fighters and most accurate counterpunchers in history, which makes him particularly well-equipped to face an aggressive offensive fighter like Pacquiao.

Few fighters in history have been as good at analyzing and adjusting to an opponent as Mayweather. The most likely outcome to this fight is that he grinds through an early onslaught from Pacquiao and then separates himself on the cards over the second half of the fight.  

Follow Briggs Seekins on Twitter at #Briggsfighttalk and check out his blog, Pioneers of Boxing, to read about the early, bare-knuckle days of the sport.