Kentucky Derby Odds 2015: Triple Crown Outlook and Race-Day Predictions

The 2015 Kentucky Derby features no shortage of high-ceiling contenders, but only one horse from the field of 18 will prevail and keep the Triple Crown hopes of his jockey and trainer alive.

No horse has won the Triple Crown since Affirmed in 1978, and after California Chrome came up empty in the Belmont Stakes last year, many are starting to wonder if it is realistic for a horse to accomplish such a major feat in the current era of racing.

Even so, the winner of the 2015 Kentucky Derby will be hailed by some as the potential savior of the Triple Crown.

Ahead of the 141st Run for the Roses, here is a look at the winning odds, along with predictions for the win, place and show horses.

No.	Post	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Odds
1	2	Ocho Ocho Ocho	Elvis Trujillo	Jim Cassidy	25-1
2	3	Carpe Diem	John Velazquez	Todd Pletcher	8-1
3	4	Materiality	Javier Castellano	Todd Pletcher	16-1
4	5	Tencendur	Manny Franco	George Weaver	50-1
5	6	Danzig Moon	Julien Leparoux	Mark Casse	33-1
6	7	Mubtaahij	Christophe Soumillon	Mike de Kock	12-1
7		El Kabeir	Calvin Borel		SCR
8	8	Dortmund	Martin Garcia	Bob Baffert	18-5
9	9	Bolo	Rafael Bejarano	Carla Gaines	40-1
10	10	Firing Line	Gary Stevens	Simon Callaghan	12-1
11		Stanford	Florent Geroux		SCR
12		International Star	Miguel Mena		SCR
13	11	Itsaknockout	Luis Saez	Todd Pletcher	33-1
14	12	Keen Ice	Kent Desormeaux	Dale Romans	40-1
15	13	Frosted	Joel Rosario	Kiaran McLaughlin	16-1
16	14	War Story	Joe Talamo	Tom Amoss	50-1
17	15	Mr. Z	Ramon Vazquez	D. Wayne Lukas	50-1
18	16	American Pharoah	Victor Espinoza	Bob Baffert	13-5
19	17	Upstart	Jose Ortiz	Rick Violette Jr.	25-1
20	18	Far Right	Mike Smith	Ron Moquett	40-1
21	19	Frammento	Corey Nakatani	Nick Zito	66-1

Kentucky Derby Predictions

Win: Dortmund

There is no shortage of greatness within the Kentucky Derby field, but it is tough to argue against the notion that Dortmund enters Churchill Downs with a more impressive resume than any of his competitors.

The Bob Baffert-trained horse has won all six of his races, including the Santa Anita Derby in dominant fashion. Few have managed to give the impressive colt a run for his money, and if any horse is going to win the Kentucky Derby going away, it will likely be him.

Despite Dortmund's pure dominance, though, Steve Andersen of Daily Racing Form can't help but wonder if he is still being overlooked to some degree:

It is difficult to fathom that, but there is so much quality in this field that Dortmund may not be receiving as much attention as horses with similar amounts of success have in the past.

None of that will matter when the race starts, though, as Dortmund will let his performance do the talking. 

No horse has proven capable of hanging with Dortmund yet, and while things can certainly change on the Kentucky Derby stage, there is no reason to pick against Dortmund considering how superb he has been thus far.

Place: American Pharoah

Danny Johnston/Associated Press

For as great as Dortmund has been, it can be argued that another Baffert horse is stealing the headlines in the form of American Pharoah.

Since finishing fifth in his first career race, the three-year-old colt has been nothing short of incredible, as he has reeled off four straight wins, including victories in the Arkansas Derby and Rebel Stakes.

The potential battle between Dortmund and American Pharoah is compelling simply due to the fact that they are both great horses, but their rivalry is made even more intriguing since they are both Baffert horses.

Pat Forde of Yahoo Sports believes that Baffert having two top-notch contenders makes the Kentucky Derby that much better:

It isn't often that one trainer enters such an important race with two horses that have a realistic shot at winning, and even Baffert is taken aback by it, according to Ed Zieralski of U-T San Diego:

"

This is the time of the year where we take nothing for granted. We work hard. We have a great team and American Pharoah is doing fantastic. We want to get there in top form and healthy. That's the battle right there. We have good horses. I can't believe I'm so fortunate to be in this position with two outstanding 3-year-olds like I have.

"

The possibility of a letdown is very much present, and Baffert could come away from the Kentucky Derby in virtual disgrace if neither of his highly touted horses comes away with the win.

Dortmund and American Pharoah are so strong, though, that it seems likelier to see them battling for the lead at the end. If that comes to fruition, then it will be the slightly more accomplished Dortmund who nudges ahead for the victory.

Show: Materiality

He may not be particularly experienced, but the numbers suggest that Materiality could be the true horse to beat in the 2015 Kentucky Derby.

He is undefeated just like Dortmund, although he enters the Run for the Roses with only three starts to his credit. All of them have been excellent, however, including his win at the Florida Derby.

In fact, Materiality posted a Beyer rating of 110 in that race, which is a better number than any other horse in the Kentucky Derby has managed, according to Steve Byk of At the Races on SiriusXM:

Per Daily Racing Form, Beyer takes into account factors such as the length and speed of a track for comparison purposes, and Materiality's rating stands out above the rest.

Even so, there are definite question marks surrounding the three-year-old colt since his sample size is so small compared to most of the other horses. If he is as good as his Florida Derby performance suggests, though, experience may not matter much.

Overcoming Dortmund and American Pharoah is an extremely tall order, but Materiality is good enough to contend and register a third-place finish.

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