No Limit on What Titans Should Spend to Bring Philip Rivers to Tennessee
The NFL draft is coming into focus, and with Florida State's Jameis Winston reportedly all but assured he'll be the No. 1 overall pick, the next domino to fall is Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota.
If hunting man is the most dangerous game, then hunting quarterbacks is surely the most expensive. The Robert Griffin III trade left a smoking crater in Washington's draft allotment that they've only now begun to recover from.
And so the stage is set for a trade that makes too much sense to not happen: The Tennessee Titans own the No. 2 pick, have no quarterback of the present, aren't particularly sold on Mariota and can reportedly send that pick to the San Diego Chargers for quarterback Philip Rivers.
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How We Got Here
Reading the tea leaves will give us the easy answer: Rivers doesn't want to play in Los Angeles. The Chargers have been making noises about fleeing San Diego for years, and Rivers went on the record with U-T San Diego's Kevin Acee about a potential move in March:
"What we’ve established here with my growing family is hard to recreate. It’s hard to up and recreate that. I know that moves are part of life. But that certainly is fair to say that (not being sold on moving to Los Angeles) is part of it. The good thing is I’m not under contract in a year where we’d potentially be in Los Angeles.
"
If you listen to Bleacher Report's Jason Cole, though, the real answer may be that the Chargers won't redo Rivers' contract.
Either way, the Chargers have been on the fringes of playoff contention essentially since LaDainian Tomlinson's career finally petered out. Rivers is enough to turn a roster barren of talent into a borderline contender, but not enough to get it there all on his own.
If they truly believe that Mariota is a franchise quarterback, and they believe Rivers A) won't go to Los Angeles with them and/or B) isn't worth a restructure because of concerns about his health, then they've got to be jumping at the chance to rebuild around a new quarterback.
How Rivers Fits With the Titans
As we've established, Rivers has spent the last five years of his life dragging teams without enough talent to actually contend to the fringes of it. He'd be asked to do essentially the same thing in Tennessee, for a team with perhaps the weakest roster in the league right now, but with the added benefit of playing in a division that's still pretty weak.
The schematic fit would be downright seamless. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt was previously Rivers' offensive coordinator in San Diego, and offensive coordinator Jason Michael was also on San Diego's coaching staff at the time. By all accounts, Rivers is a Southern boy who would fit in well in Tennessee.
There's no question that Rivers is one of the best quarterbacks of this era. The question is: How much does he have left, and how long will he maintain it?
| 2011 | 1118 (7) | 17.0% (8) | 13.0% (5) |
| 2012 | 138 (22) | -7.3% (22) | -10.0% (24) |
| 2013 | 1799 (2) | 34.8% (3) | 23.1% (2) |
| 2014 | 918 (9) | 12.6% (10) | 7.0% (11) |
While I have no doubt that San Diego's concerns about Rivers' injuries are real, remember that talent often plays no matter what. Rivers has that talent, and the last few times a player like this became available due to concerns about injuries, Drew Brees went to New Orleans and Peyton Manning went to Denver. I'd say those teams were reasonably pleased with the returns they received from those players.
Rivers turns 34 in December, and given the recent staying power by quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Manning and Brees, I think it's fair to assume that Rivers can deliver three or four more years at his current level of play. While that makes him more like the next Kurt Warner for Whisenhunt than the future star every general manager dreams of, it also means that the Titans aren't taking the risk that Mariota isn't so great.
Look, I love Mariota as a professional prospect. I think higher of him than I think of Winston. I've advocated that the Titans should pick him rather than trade down. But I also understand the doubts. I understand the people who worry about him as a professional prospect because he hasn't been asked to make many NFL throws. I also understand that the NFL draft is a crapshoot, and that getting attached to players to the point where you pay a premium for them is, long-term, a losing strategy.
Lay out a wide range of outcomes for Mariota. Look at his best-case and worst-case scenarios. He's got such a high ceiling in my view that he could be better than Rivers. But the odds that he reaches that are low. The odds that he is a bust aren't ridiculously high, but I think they are very real. I think the concerns about Mariota are founded in scheme rather than traits, but that doesn't mean they couldn't be a stumbling block.
The issue here is that Rivers is already a sure thing. Over the next four seasons, Rivers is going to wind up being better than Mariota pretty often—I'd attach about an 80 percent chance to it if forced to throw a number out there.
And if Mariota fails? Titans fans have already played this game. They've been through Jake Locker. They've been through Vince Young. If being an NFL general manager is all about managing risk, then acquiring Rivers is the safest move the Titans could make with the No. 2 pick.
The Price
Now here's the funny part about this: I did a reasonable amount of research for this piece. I couldn't find many columnists advocating that Rivers is the more valuable chip here.
Cole reported that Rivers and the No. 17 pick would be "a start." Grantland's Bill Barnwell advocated a trade that sent the No. 2 pick to San Diego for Rivers and San Diego's second-round pick. Will Brinson of CBS Sports thinks that the Titans should be sending an extra third-round pick to get the deal done, but they should also be receiving that same second-round pick. Acee believes that "they may, according to some around the league, have to throw in a selection in a later round," but adds that it's all speculation.
I find it amazing that in today's NFL, one of the best quarterbacks could be traded for an asset that may not yield equal production and could be looked at as an underpayment. In fact, if I were the Titans, I'd be willing to go as far as to include my 2017 first-rounder to get a deal done for Rivers. I think he's clearly the most valuable asset in the deal.
And this is from someone who believes in Mariota. What if Mariota is just the next Colin Kaepernick? It's the same skeptical reasoning that Washington should have used with Griffin, where the price they paid for him already valued him as the best before he even stepped on the field. It's wonderful if Mariota follows the footsteps of Andrew Luck and becomes a star-caliber, cost-efficient asset, but it's not a scenario that I'd consider likely.
And all the Titans have to do is look up the road to Indianapolis to see how far a star quarterback can get you in today's game. Indianapolis hasn't exactly created a juggernaut roster, but Luck has kept them afloat while that retooling is in progress. As long as Tennessee can get an extension done with Rivers, this is a move that can replicate that process for the Titans. If they can get Rivers without having to give up anything but the No. 2 pick, this move goes from "smart" to "a total no-brainer."
It doesn't fix things forever. Rivers doesn't have all the sheen of "the next great" quarterback, but Rivers and a few smart moves can make the 2016 Titans a true contender. Given the schedule of AFC South teams, it's honestly not out of the question that adding him would be enough to make them a playoff team in 2015.
With Mariota, the 2015 Titans are a rebuilding team looking for players for their next relevant team. With Rivers, they are that relevant team.
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