Felice Herrig vs. Paige VanZant: A Full Head-to-Toe Breakdown
The opening bout of the UFC on Fox 15 main card has big implications in the strawweight division.
The slot opposing Joanna Jedrzejczyk for her first title defense is more open than ever following Joanne Calderwood's recent loss. No. 8-ranked contender Felice Herrig and No. 12-ranked Paige VanZant each have a chance to make a big impression on a huge platform this Saturday.
Who can take advantage?
This is a compelling and interesting matchup between a longtime vet and a rising prospect. VanZant is getting a majority of the press leading up to the bout, but the boisterous Herrig will try to play the role of spoiler. VanZant enters as a slight favorite, according to the betting odds courtesy of Odds Shark.
This is your complete breakdown of Saturday's strawweight attraction.
Striking
1 of 5
VanZant showed remarkable improvement in her UFC debut against Kailin Curran, but she will still be at a slight disadvantage against Herrig.
Herrig is a striker first and foremost. That is where she likes to fight. She will also have slight height and reach advantages in this matchup. VanZant, however, is the quicker of the two. That could create trouble for Herrig.
If Herrig can keep this as a technical striking exchange, then the odds tip in her favor. VanZant is still a work in progress, and this could be how Herrig takes control of the fight.
I favor the striking specialist on the feet, as one should. VanZant is not completely out of her depth standing, and Herrig is not a demon standing like the champion, but VanZant will still want to avoid prolonged striking battles throughout this fight.
Edge: Herrig
Grappling
2 of 5
One reason for VanZant's prospect status was her camp. She trained at Team Alpha Male alongside Urijah Faber, T.J. Dillashaw, Joseph Benavidez and others. However, prior to her UFC debut, she had left the camp without an explanation.
That has changed. She is back at Team Alpha Male.
Her speed is a large reason for her takedown success. She can change levels in the blink of an eye, and that will be important on Saturday.
Herrig is not the greatest at defending the takedown. Lisa Ellis was able to take her down twice in their contest, and she lacks the explosiveness that VanZant brings into the cage. This is VanZant's best path to victory and the largest talent gap between the two athletes.
Edge: VanZant
Submissions
3 of 5
Everything points to VanZant in this category.
She has the better wrestling, which means she will be in better position, and she has excellent submission training. But don't count Herrig out.
Herrig is not the most notable submission stylist, but she is crafty off her back. VanZant will have to remain mindful of Herrig's armbars and triangles. If the youngster makes a rookie mistake, Herrig will capitalize and end the fight.
With that said, the edge still has to go to VanZant. Her wrestling base and jiu-jitsu ability should keep her out of trouble while in the best position to finish the fight. She will have more submission options throughout the bout.
Edge: VanZant
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X-Factors
4 of 5
Herrig's X-Factor: Pressure
This X-Factor is two-fold.
Herrig must pressure VanZant in the fight and keep her backing up. It will make her shots easier to defend and look good in the eyes of the judges.
Also, Herrig must manage the pressure of the moment. She has never defeated a true top fighter in the division. Each time she has stepped up, she has lost. While VanZant is not in the top five of the division, this fight has a lot at stake.
Managing the pressure of the fight and keeping the pressure on VanZant will be crucial.
VanZant's X-Factor: Development
VanZant is still largely an unknown commodity.
Coming out of Invicta FC, she did not show signs of being a world-beater. Her footwork and head movement were questionable at best, and the only sign of her ability was her raw athleticism. That certainly changed in the 18 months between Invicta FC and the UFC.
She looked outstanding in her UFC debut.
Was that a product of her opposition, or is VanZant developing into a potential title contender? If she shows more maturation this weekend against Herrig, it will go a long way toward putting her into the title talk, and it will be justified. She has the athletic ability to compete with anyone in the division, but it will be fine-tuning her technique that makes the difference.
We will find out just how much she has truly improved against a vet like Herrig.
Prediction
5 of 5
This fight will come down to how successful VanZant can be with her wrestling, and I think she will be very successful.
VanZant may test herself on the feet early in each round, but ultimately, she will go back to her strength—which also happens to be Herrig's weakness. It will pay off in a 30-27 decision across the board.
Herrig will try to score points with her strikes, but the quickness of VanZant's level changes are just too much for her to withstand. VanZant will blast through on each attempt to take the fight to the ground. Herrig will be able to work to her feet several times only to be taken right back down.
I'm not anticipating a finish, but VanZant will have significant time on top to lay in good ground-and-pound.
VanZant puts herself in the top 10 of the division with a victory.
Prediction: VanZant defeats Herrig by decision.
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