Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets: 1st-Round Analysis and Predictions
The Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks are set for an in-state battle to start off their playoff runs.
The Rockets completed their unlikely run to the No. 2 seed by crushing the Utah Jazz 117-91 Wednesday night and getting a little help from the New Orleans Pelicans, who beat the San Antonio Spurs 108-103. It marks a season during which the Rockets were beset with constant injuries but managed to keep winning in spite of them.
The Mavericks have had their own sort of adversity, which included some outbursts from Rajon Rondo and Monta Ellis at different times. They're hoping all that's behind them as they head into the postseason, though, where everyone starts with a clean slate.
Head-to-Head Record: 3-1, Houston
| Date | Result | Note |
| Nov. 22 | 95-92, Houston | Harden, 32 points on 18 shots |
| Jan. 28 | 99-94, Houston | Rockets' bench: 47, Mavericks' bench: 18 |
| Feb. 20 | 111-100, Dallas | Eight Mavs score in double figures |
| Apr. 2 | 108-101, Houston | Rockets, 29-40 from the charity stripe |
Series Schedule
| Game | Date, Time (EDT) | Location | TV |
| 1 | April 18 , 9:30 | Houston | ESPN |
| 2 | April 21, 9:30 | Houston | TNT |
| 3 | April 24 , 7:00 | Dallas | ESPN |
| 4 | April 26, 9:30 | Dallas | TNT |
| 5 (If necessary) | April 28 , TBD | Houston | TBD |
| 6 (If necessary) | April 30, TBD | Dallas | TBD |
| 7 (If necessary) | May 2 , TBD | Houston | TNT |
Key Season Stats
| Team | Home Record | Road Record | ORtg (rank) | DRtg (rank) | Net Rtg (rank) |
| Houston | 30-11 | 26-15 | 104.2 (11) | 100.5 (6) | 3.7 (6) |
| Dallas | 27-14 | 23-18 | 107.1 (5) | 103.9 (18) | 3.3 (9) |
Mavericks X-Factor: Chandler Parsons—The Mavericks will need his scoring, but his health has been an issue to close out the season. How much and how well he can play are big question marks.
Rockets X-Factor: Corey Brewer—The only source for easy points outside of James Harden, Brewer is a fast-break machine who will need to be electric.
PER Comparison
Three Pressing Questions/Strategic Keys:
Can James Harden Be Efficient?
Last season, Harden was uber-efficient in the regular season, notching an effective field-goal percentage of 52.9, per Basketball-Reference.com. However, defended well by the Portland Trail Blazers' Wesley Matthews during the playoffs, he posted a mere 43.6 percent mark.
This has become something of a trend with Harden. His career effective field-goal percentage is 51.9 percent in the regular season and just 49.4 in the playoffs. That's a 2.5 percent drop-off over the course of his career.
But Harden has grown up over this year and established himself as a consistent performer in clutch situations. That's a big part of his MVP argument. If he's able to score efficiently, the Rockets are going to be a tough out, but if he's missing his shots, they're in trouble.
Can Rajon Rondo Kick into Playoff Gear?
Rondo has been the opposite of Harden when it comes to the postseason. He's always found an extra gear once the playoffs start.
In 92 playoff games, he's averaged 14.5 points, 9.2 assists and 6.0 rebounds. In his last playoff appearance, he averaged an astounding 17.3, 11.9 and 6.7 line. Rondo is a fiery competitor, and when he's engaged, he can carry a team—not just for a game or series, but for an entire postseason.
If he's effectively running the offense and showing flashes of his previous playoff brilliance, Houston may regret getting that second seed after all.
Who Will Win the Battle of the Bigs?
The Houston Rockets have Dwight Howard, Terrence Jones and Josh Smith. The Mavericks will counter with Dirk Nowitzki, Tyson Chandler and Amar'e Stoudemire. That's a lot of frontcourt star power.
Furthermore, how they match up will be interesting. Chandler and Howard are both powerful, physical players who are known more for their defense than offense but also can score efficiently in the post. Stoudemire and Smith both experienced something of a resurgence to their careers. Jones and Nowitzki can both stretch the court.
Whichever team wins the battle of the bigs will have the edge in the series.
Why the Mavericks Will Win:
Led by Rondo, the Mavericks play a balanced, team-oriented game, and the Rockets just can't keep up and make the adjustments to stop them. Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle is a chess master, and he knows how to utilize a roster as well as anyone.
Don't forget the Mavs nearly ousted the Spurs in the first round last year. The Rockets may be the better team, and they may have the home court. But if it comes down to adjustments, Carlisle wins this battle.
Why the Rockets Will Win:
Harden is in the MVP discussion for a reason. He's one of the best players in the league right now. And he's going to have something to prove this postseason.
He's become a better player this season, and he's gotten plenty of attention for that. But how much he's matured has gone unnoticed. If he picks up the Rockets and carries them the way he has all season, it won't matter what Dallas does—they won't be able to stop him.
Prediction: Rockets in 6
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