NFL Mock Draft 2015: 1st-Round Projections and Storylines for Top Prospects

For the hardcore football fans who follow every pick of the NFL draft, there are endless storylines which begin the moment Roger Goodell steps to the podium to declare that the event has officially begun. The biggest ones, for better and worse, happen early in the proceedings. 

Even though history shows the best teams are able to find talent anywhere in the draft, the names everyone knows are usually called within the first 32 picks. The first round is what defines a franchise for years. It's essential to hit on that top pick, or else everything will fall apart. 

This year's draft is fascinating due to how different the storylines are. No matter where you look, it seems like there are questions of NFL ability, scheme fits, character, readiness and coachability. 

While those aren't unfamiliar questions in a draft, it's not usual to see them start at the very top with the (likely) No. 1 overall pick. 

In the final weeks before the draft commences in Chicago, here's an updated first-round projection and the key storylines to watch. 

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Leonard Williams, DE, USC
4	Oakland Raiders	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
5	Washington	Dante Fowler, DE, Florida
6	New York Jets	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
7	Chicago Bears	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
8	Atlanta Falcons	Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
10	St. Louis Rams	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
11	Minnesota Vikings	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
12	Cleveland Browns	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
13	New Orleans Saints	Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
14	Miami Dolphins	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
15	San Francisco 49ers	Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
16	Houston Texans	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
17	San Diego Chargers	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Breshad Perriman, WR, Central Florida
19	Cleveland Browns (Acquired from Buffalo)	Vic Beasley, DE, Clemson
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
23	Detroit Lions	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
24	Arizona Cardinals	Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
25	Carolina Panthers	D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
26	Baltimore Ravens	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
27	Dallas Cowboys	Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA
28	Denver Broncos	Cameron Erving, C, Florida State
29	Indianapolis Colts	Bud Dupree, LB, Kentucky
30	Green Bay Packers	Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma
31	New Orleans Saints (Acquired from Seattle)	Carl Davis, DT, Iowa
32	New England Patriots	Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington

Who Wants Marcus Mariota?

Assuming Tampa Bay doesn't pull a last-second surprise to take Marcus Mariota ahead of Jameis Winston, the 2014 Heisman winner's draft status will remain the most fascinating storyline in the draft. 

There are multiple teams in the top 10, starting with Tennessee at No. 2, in need of a quarterback. There have also been rumblings that teams in the lower half of the draft—most notably San Diego and Philadelphia—want to move up to get Mariota. 

The Eagles connection is obvious, because Chip Kelly is the head coach and is probably best suited to use Mariota as a rookie. The former Oregon quarterback has said, via Zach Berman of The Philadelphia Inquirer, that he can see a scenario where he ends up in Philadelphia.

"I wouldn't doubt it, but Coach Kelly and the Eagles are going to do what's best for the team," Mariota said. "We'll see what happens."

However, just based on draft position and what it would take to move up, Mariota's best chance to end up in Philadelphia is if he falls past New York at No. 6. 

The Chargers are interesting players in this whole scenario. Mariota had a private workout with the team on Tuesday, with Michael Gehlken of The San Diego Union-Tribune throwing more smoke on the growing trade-rumor fire:

"

Mariota is projected to be taken as early as the first or second pick on April 30 during the first round. The Chargers have the No. 17 choice. It would be highly unlikely for a camp to allow its client to work out for a team that far back without a strong sense a trade up is a real possibility.

The sense around the league, indeed, is that it is.

"

In order for Mariota to come in, presumably Philip Rivers would have to be traded for the Chargers to move up. Ken Whisenhunt, who coaches the Titans, knows Rivers well after serving as offensive coordinator in San Diego two years ago. 

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press

Yet the question is why Tennessee would want to acquire Rivers, who is entering the final year of his contract and will be 34 in December. The Titans are a franchise in desperate need of something to get excited about. Their roster is bereft of high-impact talent at any position. 

Zach Mettenberger did show some promise as a rookie, though he was sacked 18 times in seven games last year, and mobility is not part of his game. 

If the Titans aren't sold on Mettenberger or Mariota, then acquiring Rivers for the No. 2 pick straight up can work.

If they can get San Diego to throw in the No. 17 pick in addition to Rivers, Whisenhunt can keep supplementing the roster with impact talent while getting the quarterback needed to win games in a soft AFC South. 

That still seems like a surreal thought, because these kinds of blockbuster trades rarely happen in the NFL. A betting man would put money on the Titans ending up with Mariota and going from there, but at this point it would be surprising if someone didn't grab him with the second overall pick. 

The Gurley Situation

The greatest what-if question in this draft will be: What if Todd Gurley wasn't coming off a torn ACL? He was dazzling fans and scouts at Georgia before suffering the knee injury and could have been the first running back taken in the first round since 2012. 

Now, even though this particular mock has Gurley and Melvin Gordon going in the first round, the former's status is far more tenuous because of the injury. 

Just looking at pure talent rankings, Gurley still has many fans in high places. ESPN's Todd McShay has the Georgia star ranked as the 11th-best prospect in this class, saying that his talent makes up for the inherent risk:

"

Gurley is a risk from a durability standpoint, as he's recovering from a torn ACL suffered in November, but he's a rare talent who could become an exceptional back at the next level -- a hard, downhill runner with great balance who complements his tremendous power with breakaway speed. His best NFL comparison is Marshawn Lynch in terms of his ability to bounce off tackles. His injury history and positional value will cause him to drop some, but he's one of the most talented players in this draft.

"

So how do teams weigh the natural talent with the injury risk? Keep in mind that Gurley's list of injuries goes further back than 2014. His total games by season at Georgia went from 14 in 2012 to 10 in 2013 to six in 2014. 

Yet even with all that missed time, ESPN Stats & Info noted how dominant Gurley was as a runner in the always-loaded SEC:

If the assumption is that Gurley has to start 2015 on the PUP list, meaning he sits out at least the first six games, his value as a rookie will decrease exponentially. That's only exacerbated by the limited shelf life for most running backs. 

The best-case scenario for Gurley is that a playoff-caliber team without a lot of holes and/or in need of help at running back will look at the talent and believe it to be significantly greater than the risk. Two teams that immediately spring to mind are Arizona and Dallas. 

John Bazemore/Associated Press

By virtue of picking three spots ahead of the Cowboys, the Cardinals get the edge in the Gurley sweepstakes. They desperately need help at running back after years of trying various options that always fall short, including Andre Ellington last year. 

Playing in the NFC West, which has featured punishing run-heavy teams like Seattle and San Francisco, the Cardinals know firsthand just how much of a difference being able to run can take pressure off the quarterback. 

With Carson Palmer coming off his own ACL injury, building the running game is the best thing that this talent-laden Arizona roster can do. 

The Big Fall

One of the most uncomfortable storylines in any draft involves watching that one player who was projected to be a top-10 pick fall further than anyone expected. It's usually been quarterbacks, ranging from Aaron Rodgers in 2005 to Johnny Manziel last year. 

With Winston and Mariota presumably going off the board in the first two picks and no other quarterbacks worthy of a first-round selection, the fall figures to come from somewhere else in 2015. 

Just looking at the tea leaves with two weeks before the draft, it's hard to pinpoint where the fall guy is going to be, because there are wide-ranging opinions on the prospects. Randy Gregory seems to be the name everyone wants to focus on. 

The Nebraska standout certainly has his devoted champions, with Greg Bedard of The MMQB summing up Gregory's potential as well as anyone:

"

Gregory doesn’t have an elite first step, but it’s very good. Steps two and three are explosive, allowing him to get into linemen, or around them. Gregory is extremely fluid in the hips. That allows him to shuffle around or over blockers and gives him that bend-the-edge ability that separates great edge players from the ones who are just good.

"

Bedard also noted the elephant in the room with Gregory. His failed drug test at the scouting combine was a huge red flag, not just because of the failed test but because every prospect knows which day he will be tested.

B/R draft expert Matt Miller has Gregory listed as the No. 2 overall edge-rusher in the 2015 class with an overall grade of 7.3 with Pro Bowl potential. 

In a league built on quarterbacks, an athletic defensive end like Gregory can create problems in the backfield. That makes him appealing for many teams picking early, starting with Jacksonville at No. 3 and Washington at No. 5. 

Yet even if Gregory went in the middle of Round 1 to a team like New Orleans, would that feel like a precipitous fall?

Someone is going to tumble on draft day, whether it's over character concerns or teams just holding other players in higher regard, but at this point it's hard to pinpoint exactly where the tumble is going to come from. 

The smart money is on Gregory, but given the need for edge-rushers, no one will be shocked to see him go off the board early.