What Missing out on Champions League Qualification Would Mean for Man City

After Liverpool’s comfortable 2-0 win over Newcastle United on Monday evening, the Anfield club find themselves just four points off Manchester City who currently occupy the final Champions League place.

Liverpool remain in the FA Cup and will play four of their six remaining league games away from home, including a trip to Chelsea, making their run in, on paper at least, more difficult than City’s. But given Manuel Pellegrini’s side’s appalling form, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see them slip out of the top four.

City have lost eight of their last 15 matches in all competitions, a run which has seen Pellegrini come under severe pressure to keep his job. Their remaining games look comfortable, though, with four home games from six, all against sides City would be expected to beat.

But what if they did slip out of the top four? How damaging would it be?

Tim Ireland/Associated Press

From the point of view of City’s global “brand” (a detestable but now commonplace word in football’s lexicon), it would be somewhat damaging. Four consecutive years in the Champions League—including two consecutive last-16 qualifications—have established City as an elite-club side, and a year in the Europa League would dent that reputation. Nothing irreversible, obviously, but a setback, nonetheless.

From a financial perspective, there would be also be some damage. With clubs’ spending now linked to what they earn after the introduction of UEFA’s Financial Fair Play initiative, the importance of prize money and gate receipts has never been so high.

According to Adrian Kajumba writing for the Daily Record (via the Mirror), the disparity in terms of prize money between the Champions League and the Europa League remains significant, despite it being reduced from next season.

Champions League clubs will net £3.30 for every £1 a Europa League side nets. With City posting healthy financial results for the 2013-14 season, which saw their revenue increase to a club-record £347 million, they will no doubt want to continue that trajectory as they aim to become self-sufficient for the foreseeable future.

Perhaps more damaging, though, would be the enthusiasm for European football amongst their supporters. It’s no secret that City’s fans haven’t really taken to the Champions League, with poor atmospheres and the booing of the UEFA anthem commonplace at the Etihad on European matchdays. A year of Europa League action, the poor relation of the Champions League, is hardly going to help. 

The flipside of that argument is that a year out of the Champions League spotlight could help the team recover some belief in their European credentials. There’s little doubt they have played within themselves, for the most part, during their four-year stint in the competition, a situation which appears to have developed into a genuine psychological barrier.

The Europa League offers a less-pressurised kind of European football, with the spotlight and focus nowhere as intense as it is in the Champions League. The club’s directors, who have sanctioned a three-phase expansion of the Etihad, are unlikely to agree with that assessment.

And given the club’s regression this season, it looks set to be an important summer of recruitment at City, and it’s clear signing the best players is made much easier when there’s the guarantee of Champions League football.

Manchester United proved this summer that big-name player are prepared to spend a year outside of Europe’s elite club competition, but it’s certainly a hindrance when at the negotiating table. The Europa League format is also a testing one, with games played on a Thursday meaning a number of Sunday Premier League matches. Many teams have suffered at the hands of its schedule.

Overall, it’s a fate City will be desperate to avoid.

Rob Pollard is Bleacher Report's lead Manchester City correspondent and will be following the club from a Manchester base throughout the 2014-15 season. All quotes are obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow him on Twitter: @RobPollard.