Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Pittsburgh Steelers' Top 3 Picks
Even the best-laid draft plans can go awry. Any pick—no matter how high in Round 1 or how bright a mid-round gem looks—can turn out to be a failure. Ultimately, the draft is a game of chance. No matter how much research and resources a team puts into getting each pick exactly just so, any outcome is possible—for better or for worse.
The Pittsburgh Steelers' first three picks this year, in Rounds 1 through 3, will be crucial in order to build the roster for the future. They have a number of needs, particularly on defense, that require high-caliber players. But can they get them, or will they find themselves with buyer's remorse in a year or two?
Here are the best- and worst-case scenarios that could play out with the Steelers' first three picks in the 2015 draft.
Best: A Top CB in Round 1, Pass-Rush in Round 2
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The Steelers' two biggest positional needs at the moment are cornerback and outside linebacker, and both can be met early in the draft as long as the cards fall in their favor.
Given that there is more depth at edge-rusher this year than at cornerback, the Steelers would be wise to address the latter earlier than the former. This could be the first draft since 2003 that Pittsburgh selects a defensive back in Round 1.
If the Steelers can take one of the draft's premier cornerbacks in Round 1, such as Michigan State's Trae Waynes, Wake Forest's Kevin Johnson, Washington's Marcus Peters or LSU's Jalen Collins, they will be set up well to find a pass-rusher in Round 2.
Round 2 would be a good time for the Steelers to select Virginia linebacker Eli Harold. Harold, who visited the Steelers last week, totaled 54 combined tackles, 14.5 tackles for a loss and seven sacks in 2014. Though Harold seems to be rising on teams' draft boards, potentially making him a late Round 1 pick and out of the Steelers' reach, it's possible that draft media is more excited about him than team scouts.
If that's the case, the Steelers would have a very successful first two rounds by taking a top cornerback first and someone of Harold's caliber second.
Worst: CB Market Dries Up Early
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Just because the Steelers have a glaring need at cornerback does not mean that they will address the position in Round 1. The Steelers, like many teams, focus on taking the best player available in Round 1. That may be cornerback. That may be a pass-rusher. Or it may be a completely different position.
Typically, this is a fine strategy. But if the Steelers adhere to it and suddenly are spectators to a run on cornerbacks, particularly the draft's better ones—not just Trae Waynes and Marcus Peters, but also Ronald Darby, Byron Jones and P.J. Williams—they could find themselves having to settle for a lesser player later on.
That's trouble, because cornerback already has one of the steepest learning curves from college to the NFL as it is. That learning curve steepens as the draft progresses. The Steelers need cornerback help for both the short- and long-term, and to get the help they need immediately will require someone more capable of contributing in his rookie year.
Making a draft pick is more than just an addition—it's a sacrifice. It means a team giving up any other player that is taken after that player and before their pick in the following round. But it would be a bad outcome, indeed, for the Steelers if they make an early-round pick that results in the sacrificing of all the cornerbacks that could help them in 2015.
Best: S Landon Collins Falls to No. 22
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The Steelers are in bad shape at the safety position presently. Troy Polamalu has retired, as expected. In response, the team re-signed Will Allen, but Allen has served only as depth during his career in Pittsburgh, starting only when injuries forced him into the lineup. Further, Allen is 32 years old and turns 33 in June—he's not exactly a long-term solution at the position.
The draft isn't deep at safety this year. In fact, there is but one strong safety worthy of serious first-round consideration, Alabama's Landon Collins. But if Collins could somehow fall all the way to the Steelers' pick at 22nd overall, they may just luck out and find a solution to the safety problem that has been looming over their heads since the offseason began.
Collins totaled 103 combined tackles in 2014, including 4.5 tackles for a loss. He also had three interceptions and seven passes defensed. He could easily come in, leapfrog Shamarko Thomas and Allen on the depth chart and start at strong safety, allowing Mike Mitchell to remain at free safety. He'd also be a high-impact player for years to come.
Collins would meet a need and give the Steelers a talented player at the same time. They would be quite lucky should he fall to 22 in Round 1.
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Worst: Steelers Select an Undersized Pass-Rusher
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The problem with pass-rushers in this year's draft is that there are so many of them. There are many styles and sizes of player, and finding the one that fits best in the Steelers' defensive scheme will be a major task.
The Steelers need to find someone who can disrupt quarterbacks from day one. Development is important, but it has to come on-field this year, given that there are only three experienced pass-rushers on the roster at present—James Harrison, Arthur Moats and Jarvis Jones.
Jones is the reason why the Steelers cannot miss on an outside linebacker in this year's draft. Jones has long been considered undersized, and his lack of strength has led to two lackluster seasons in which he's totaled 58 combined tackles, three sacks and four passes defensed. Of course, this was also marred by a wrist injury that cost him nine games in 2014, and he is also well aware that he must add bulk to better play his position. But he serves as a cautionary tale.
The Steelers may be willing to be patient with Jones, given how much they have already invested in him. But they do not need a pair of young linebackers who need to spend significant time in the weight room in order to make a positive on-field impact. The Steelers need an edge-rusher who already has the physical tools in place, because there is no time for another linebacker to be slowly brought along as they have been forced to do with Jones.
Best: Shaq Thompson Is the Round 2 Pick
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According to NFL.com's Lance Zierlein, some teams view Washington defender Shaq Thompson as a linebacker. Others view him as a safety at the NFL level. No matter the position, Thompson could prove to be a versatile weapon for the Steelers as their Round 2 pick this year.
On his career, Thompson totaled 233 combined tackles, 15 tackles for a loss, 3.5 sacks, five interceptions (two returned for a touchdown) and 14 passes defensed. In 2014, he had 81 combined tackles, 2.5 tackles for a loss, one sack, an interception returned for a touchdown and four passes defensed.
Though Thompson hasn't played safety since high school, his body type and skill set may just translate to him returning to safety, especially if the Steelers select him. He can defend the run, pressure the quarterback and is solid in coverage, particularly against slot receivers and tight ends.
Thompson is undersized for the linebacker position, especially a 3-4 outside linebacker job. But as a safety, he could prove to be a high-quality replacement for Troy Polamalu. As Zierlein notes, "[w]ith his big-play potential, Thompson could become a unique chess piece in the hands of the right defensive coordinator," and the Steelers' Keith Butler may just be the man to mold him into the next great safety in Pittsburgh. In Round 2, that would make Thompson a huge steal given how thin the draft is at safety.
Worst: Steelers Draft OLB Randy Gregory, Who Ends Up Suspended
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The Steelers are one of a number of teams who want to take a closer look at Nebraska outside linebacker Randy Gregory before the draft, with Yahoo Sports' Rand Getlin reporting the team will meet with Gregory sometime this week.
Gregory is a controversial player because of his failed drug test at February's scouting combine—which means he's already in the NFL's substance-abuse program—and his admission to heavy marijuana use in college. There's no doubt that he's talented, and even with the revelations about his off-field problems, he will still be selected in Round 1 of the draft.
If the Steelers are the team to take him, they get a player who amassed 120 combined career tackles, 25.5 tackles for a loss and 17.5 sacks in just two seasons. But they also get his baggage. The Steelers would likely be relying on Gregory to be a day-one starter and a major fixture of their 2015 defense.
But if Gregory fails another test, they could be without his services for the first few weeks of the season before ever playing a down in the NFL. If the Steelers invest in Gregory, hoping to make him a centerpiece of their pass rush for years to come, they need to be confident he can keep his name off of the commissioner's suspended list. It would be bad news for the Steelers if Gregory earns their benefit of the doubt and then tramples all over it.
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