Dan Carter Could Struggle to Make All Blacks World Cup Team
There was a time when leaving Dan Carter out of an All Black team was unthinkable. The master fly-half was, alongside Richie McCaw, an automatic selection in any New Zealand XV, and his absence left a gaping hole that no one could replace.
Times change, though. Four years after Carter's Rugby World Cup injury being something of a national tragedy, he is now looking a long shot to even make the squad.
In the intervening years, Aaron Cruden, Beauden Barrett and Colin Slade have all emerged as legitimate options to fill the No. 10 jersey. With all three having shown good form in the international arena over the past 12 months, there is a feeling Carter has moved to No. 4 in the pecking order.
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It is not that anyone is doubting Carter's ability when he is at his best. No one controls the game like he does and when he retires, he will be remembered as the greatest first five-eighth New Zealand has ever produced. His ability to kick, run, distribute, create and defend at a high level has made him an all-round player, the like of which has not been seen before; not on the level of this anyway.
But it has been a long time since we have seen this form from Carter. Injuries have not helped. Not since the end of the 2012 Super Rugby season have we seen him on the field for more than a few weeks and playing well.
The question has to be asked: Is Carter still capable of producing his best?
You would be hard-pressed to answer that question with a definitive no. However, he has not been able to show it, and he needs to prove that he is better than the other three contenders if he is to be an All Black once more.
There may be a temptation to pick him based on past form or sentiment. That temptation must be resisted.
You would struggle to find a New Zealander who does not want to see Carter get through a full World Cup. For all of his dominance in between times, he has never really had the chance to perform on what many consider to be the game's biggest stage. In 2003, he was just emerging on the scene and played the role of back-up second five-eighth to Aaron Mauger, before being hampered by injuries throughout the next two campaigns.
It would be a nice ending if he was able to stay on the field and play well for a whole World Cup.
But there are two problems with that wish.
The first is that he has hardly been able to stay on the field for more than a month at a time since the last World Cup.
The second is that he has not put on a convincing display since July 2012, and his performances since his latest return from injury have been no more than solid. He has been kept out of the Crusaders No. 10 jersey by Colin Slade and is being forced to play out at second five-eighth at times, mainly off the bench.
In the weekend, he came on and was virtually anonymous against the Highlanders. Based on that game, and indeed this season's form, Lima Sopoaga could have gone past Carter in the pecking order too.
If there were no other options, as was the case in 2011, you could understand the selection of Carter.
But there are other options.
Aaron Cruden, brought in to replace Carter at the last World Cup, has developed from a playmaker with promise to a fly-half with the ability to direct his team well. His in-field kicking game has improved out of sight in the past few years, gaining more distance and kicking with more accuracy. Likewise, the physical side to his game has improved, which came naturally with more rugby at this level.
The pivot behind the Chiefs Super Rugby championships of 2012 and 2013, Cruden is as good as any fly-half in the world on his day.
Alongside him is the other youngster who has been brought through over the past three years, Beauden Barrett. Barrett is not quite as quality a playmaker as Cruden, although he is still a good one, but he possesses an extra turn of pace and can run through the smallest of gaps. His kicking has improved markedly, although his goal-kicking has been off this season.
Then you have Slade, the man chosen to back up Carter at the last World Cup and who proceeded to go down injured, having had to fight for three years to get his spot back in the team. It has not come easy, and he has done extremely well when you consider he has been possibly the most unlucky man in New Zealand when it comes to injuries.
He is a player who tends to blow hot and cold. When he is on, he is outstanding. When he is off, he is relatively ineffectual.
Of late, there has been more of the good than the bad. He is taking the ball to the line confidently and running at gaps to commit defenders, allowing his outside men to get the ball on the front foot at the advantage line. His kicking has been reasonable too, and he is undoubtedly better than the others when it comes to kicking with either foot.
Can Carter really compete with any of these men? He brings experience, past form and the ability to take control of a game. But it has been so long since he has shown any spark or posed a threat that it is hard to see that he is the right option.
It has been a great career, one of the best we have ever seen. But unfortunately for Carter, four does not go into three, and unless he sees an upswing in form, it would be hard to justify picking him ahead of one of the others.
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