Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for Cincinnati Bengals' Top 3 Picks
One of the biggest points of contention surrounding the Cincinnati Bengals this offseason is simple—how the front office will use its wealth of picks to upgrade the roster.
On one hand, it's easy to think coach Marvin Lewis and Co. will grab an immediate-impact player with each of their first three picks. A strong offseason in which most major needs were addressed reinforces the thought process.
On the other hand, the Bengals are gunning for a critical period for the franchise a year from now, when many contracts on major contributors expire. This helps some to rally for the long-term approach in this year's draft, meaning the team should invest in the future even if the picks don't pay off right away.
When it comes down to it, the Bengals figure to employ the best of both worlds and, as always, lean on a best-player-available approach.
Within, let's take a look at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the team at each of its first three picks based on team need, future outlook and prospect value.
Round 1 (No. 21 Overall) Best Case: Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
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When thinking of a best-case scenario for the Cincinnati Bengals in the first round, the pick needs to somewhat help as a rookie and provide long-term insurance at a critical spot.
While this could be a wideout who helps by returning kicks and shoring up a spot in years to come, the draft is deep in such an area.
Instead, the best-case scenario would be an elite interior defensive prospect such as Texas' Malcom Brown taking a dive.
Yes, the Bengals are crowded at the position right now and just brought back Pat Sims, but depth hasn't stopped the front office from making a value pick before.
The thing is, nothing is a guarantee at the position right now. Geno Atkins struggled last year at times. Domata Peko is in a decline, nobody behind him stepped up in a significant way and Sims was an afterthought in free agency for a reason and is a role player at best.
With Brown, the Bengals get a young, proven contributor right out of the gates who makes costly veterans expendable. He can assume an every-down starting role perhaps right away, if not for sure by his sophomore campaign.
Round 1 (No. 21 Overall) Worst Case: Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon
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Again, a first-round pick needs to make some sort of contributions for the Cincinnati Bengals this year.
In other words, offensive tackle isn't the sexiest of picks at No. 21.
The position needs some youth with Andrew Whitworth aging and Andre Smith on his way back from an injury before a contract year. Eric Winston is back on a new deal as a backup swing tackle, so there isn't a lot of room for a first-round rookie.
Still, Oregon's Jake Fisher would make quite the consolation prize if the value isn't there at other positions and players such as LSU's La'el Collins are already off the board. He projects to be a starter anywhere on the line thanks to elite athleticism, meaning he could step in as a rookie should an injury occur.
Fisher and other tackles in the first round are a strong way to build for the future, which isn't a bad thing. It's just not what the team may have in mind.
Round 2 (No. 53 Overall) Best Case: Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA
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The Cincinnati Bengals are all about value, meaning whatever position offering the most value with a player who has taken a tumble down the board will get the nod at No. 53.
This could be a wealth of different things. Perhaps a corner falls. Maybe wideout Dorial Green-Beckham takes a dive. One of the top two tight ends might make it there.
Defensive end is also a candidate, and Owamagbe Odighizuwa sticks out as a player with obvious first-round talent who could fall.
The concern with Odighizuwa is he had surgery on both hips and missed the 2013 season. But he's an obvious pro-ready talent who can come in and stuff the run well. While not the flashiest pass-rusher in the class, he figures to thrive well in Cincinnati's rotational approach, benefiting from interior pressure to make an impact from the edge.
Again, Cincinnati is crowded along the line, but value creates a possible selection. A selection creates more depth and competition, which brings out the best in all. The best means an improvement on the defense's putrid 20 sacks a year ago.
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Round 2 (No. 53 Overall) Worst Case: Shaq Thompson, LB, Washington
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It's hard for the Cincinnati Bengals to go wrong in the second round of this year's draft.
Value peppers the board at most spots, so Marvin Lewis and the war room won't have many issues finding something to work with to improve the roster.
Perhaps the lone thing the Bengals could do to create a worst-case scenario is grab a linebacker such as Washington's Shaq Thompson.
It's no secret Lewis excels at finding great linebackers late in drafts or after in the undrafted pool, so the value doesn't make a ton of sense.
Granted, Thompson is an intriguing prospect who can man multiple spots and possibly start. Depth wouldn't hurt, either, even if the team did bring back Rey Maualuga and sign A.J. Hawk. After all, Vontaze Burfict is still on the road to recovery.
Thompson can fill the linebacker-safety role the Bengals lost with Taylor Mays' departure; it's just a matter of value. The second round might not be the place to address the need.
Round 3 (No. 85 Overall) Best Case: Justin Hardy, WR, East Carolina
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If the Cincinnati Bengals don't pull the trigger on a wideout in one of the first two rounds, No. 85 seems to be where they will make it happen.
Barring an epic tumble for Phillip Dorsett or Nelson Agholor, East Carolina's Justin Hardy may be the best-case scenario. He's not a burner, running a 4.56-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine, but he's got sure hands and can produce in droves out of the slot at the pro level.
In fact, he might turn out to be an every-down starter right away. NFL.com's Lance Zierlein explains:
"Hardy consistently attacks his on-field responsibility with urgency and aggressiveness and he's a very reliable target. With more teams running the ball out of three-WR sets, some coordinators will see value in the way Hardy gets after run-blocking assignments. Hardy must prove that he has the quickness to get separation out of his breaks.
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For the Bengals, Hardy would be a welcome addition at No. 85. He fits the mold of what the coaching staff looks for and provides a reliable No. 4 on the depth chart, if not higher should the injury bug strike the position for a second consecutive year.
Round 3 (No. 85 Overall) Worst Case: James Sample, S, Louisville
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The worst-case scenario for the Cincinnati Bengals at No. 85 is attempting to future-proof a position perhaps too early.
Safety is the first position to consider. Reggie Nelson will be 32 years old next September, but finding his eventual replacement shouldn't be too high on the team's priority list. In the same vein, George Iloka just had a breakout year, ranking as Pro Football Focus' No. 12 safety in the league.
The above means taking a prospect such as Louisville's James Sample would be a bit of a reach.
Of course, he's a raw player with plenty of room to grow. He could also help on special teams right away.
But Sample and prospects like him are the worst-case scenario at No. 85 in a draft figuring to offer plenty of value at more important positions throughout the top 100.
Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com as of April 13 at 9 p.m. ET. All advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus.
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