Why Lack of Goals Is the Biggest Issue Liverpool Need to Address This Summer

Liverpool enter the final seven games of the season with an outside chance of achieving a top-four finish. The odds are against them following defeats to Manchester United and Arsenal in their last two Premier League games, but stranger things have happened in football.

Brendan Rodgers' side are seven points behind fourth-placed Manchester City, but with the Manchester derby meaning one of the two Manchester sides will drop points, the Reds have a chance to gain ground when they host Newcastle United on Monday night.

With winnable fixtures against West Bromwich Albion, Hull City and Queens Park Rangers in the league thereafter, the gap could be reduced by the time they travel to Chelsea in May.

Alas, however this season ends, Liverpool clearly have areas in which they need to improve ahead of the 2015/16 campaign.

After a torrid first half of the campaign, Rodgers' side have improved their defensive record, but the lack of goals at the other end remains a huge issue.

It is that which is the biggest issue Rodgers needs to address this summer.

Goals

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This Is Anfield's Joseph Cousins crunched the stats on Liverpool's lack of goals at the 25-games stage of the season, finding that, "Only five times in the last 23 seasons have [Liverpool] scored fewer goals after 25 games. At Anfield it’s slightly worse. Only four times have we scored fewer goals at home at the stage of a PL season."

The fact the Reds' top Premier League goalscorers are the trio of Steven Gerrard, Raheem Sterling and Jordan Henderson with pretty paltry six goals each tells the story. Only Sunderland (who have three players on four goals apiece) have a Premier League top scorer with fewer goals than Liverpool's this season.

It's a problem Rodgers himself has recognised, saying earlier this week, per the Liverpool Echo: "Three players on six goals is the reality of where we are at, and we have to find solutions for that.

"We are still trying to find solutions at the top end of the field."

Of course, comparing the Reds' goalscoring exploits to last season is somewhat skewed, given the incredible performance of Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge, but it does show just how far Rodgers' side has fallen.

Suarez and Sturridge scored 52 Premier League goals between them last season. Liverpool have only scored 45 league goals so far this season.

Without the duo for most of the campaign, Suarez having departed for Barcelona and Sturridge missing most of the season due to injury, Liverpool have struggled for goals.

It isn't just their goals that have been removed from the side. Sterling has three fewer than last season despite having only really featured for half of the campaign last year. Philippe Coutinho has just four goals to his name. Martin Skrtel has just one compared to his seven last season.

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The only player in the Reds' squad who has scored more this season is Henderson, with six compared to just four last campaign.

Therefore, it's not just the number of goals from centre-forwards that needs improving—it's right across the team.

2015/16 must see midfielders such as Coutinho and Henderson hitting 10 league goals. Goals from set pieces need to return and defenders chip in to relieve the pressure on the centre-forwards.

Forwards

Clearly, though, a huge change is required up front in terms of personnel.

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So bad has the situation been this season that Sterling, a player barely out of his teenage years and primarily an attacking midfielder, has been tasked with leading the line after Rodgers lost hope in Mario Balotelli, Rickie Lambert and Fabio Borini.

All three of them are likely to leave the club this summer, having contributed just four Premier League goals between them this season—a pretty alarming statistic.

Balotelli hasn't stated a league game since November. Borini's last start was at Aston Villa in January, while Lambert hasn't started a league game in 2015.

If the trio do depart as expected, that leaves injury-prone Sturridge, Divock Origi and Sterling—whose future isn't clear—as Rodgers' forward options.

Clearly, new signings are required.

Danny Ings is a player who has been linked with a move to Merseyside—the latest report being via The Telegraph—and he would add depth up front at Anfield.

The 22-year-old Burnley forward is out of contract at Turf Moor in the summer, having scored an admirable nine goals for the Lancashire side on his debut season in the top flight. He would suit the style of play at the club and fit with the philosophy of signing young players who can improve.

Goals Required

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This Is Anfield's Marco Lopes calculated the average number of goals scored by the team finishing in fourth place in recent seasons, finding that 67.3 goals were required. He also found that the average amount conceded by the fourth-placed team is 40.

Liverpool have scored just 45 and conceded 36 so far. With seven games remaining, it's fair to assume that they will concede at least four more this season, taking them over the 40-goals against mark. It's more than fair to assume they won't score the 22 goals required to hit the goalscoring requirement.

Therefore, it's safe to say Liverpool won't be far off the goals-against target but will be a long way off the goals-scored target. That is why goalscoring is the biggest issue they need to address in the summer.

Address

How do they address this?

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The obvious first step is offloading Balotelli, Borini and Lambert and signing at least two new forwards (plus the arrival of Origi from Lille).

The next question is over the system. While a back three has added defensive solidity, has it created a goalscoring issue at the other end? This is something Rodgers must analyse in the summer in order to find a system that keeps his defence solid but also gives him goals at the attacking end.

A settled system that not only gets the forwards scoring but also goals from midfield will be a key part of correcting the issue.

Next season, the aim must be to have a centre-foward, whether that's Sturridge or a new signing, scoring 20 Premier League goals and at least three others from Sterling, Henderson, Coutinho and Adam Lallana notching 10 goals or more.

Liverpool must target 70 goals next season in order to maximise their chances of a top-four finish.