NBA Playoffs 2015: Latest Standings, Underdogs Poised to Pull 1st-Round Upsets
With only three days left in the NBA regular season, 13 of 16 playoff spots have been clinched. However, just five teams are locked into their current seedings, and the jockeying for home-court advantage and the eighth seed in both conferences should keep teams playing at full capacity through the end of their 82-game slates.
But while it's too difficult to project most of the eight first-round matchups next weekend, we can identify teams likeliest to wreak the most havoc on the favored squads. The NBA postseason is typically light on upsets—talent is highly stratified from roster to roster, and the seven-game format will usually allow the better team to advance.
However, a trio of higher-seeded teams won in the first round last year, while four others pushed their favored opponents to seven games.
Given that this year's season has produced even more parity among the championship contenders, a reprise of last year's historically exciting opening round looms as a distinct possibility. Taking a look at the current up-to-date postseason standings, let's highlight the teams that won't likely have home-court advantage in the first round but could still do damage.
| Atlanta 1e | 60 | 20 | 0.75 | - |
| Cleveland 2c | 51 | 29 | 0.64 | 9 |
| Toronto 3a | 48 | 32 | 0.60 | 12 |
| Chicago 4x | 48 | 32 | 0.60 | 12 |
| Washington 5x | 46 | 34 | 0.58 | 14 |
| Milwaukee 6 | 40 | 40 | 0.50 | 20 |
| Boston 7 | 38 | 42 | 0.48 | 22 |
| Brooklyn 8 | 37 | 43 | 0.46 | 23 |
| Indiana | 37 | 43 | 0.46 | 23 |
| Golden State 1w | 65 | 15 | 0.81 | - |
| San Antonio 2x | 55 | 26 | 0.68 | 10.5 |
| L.A. Clippers 3x | 54 | 26 | 0.68 | 11 |
| Portland 4nw | 51 | 29 | 0.64 | 14 |
| Memphis 5x | 54 | 26 | 0.68 | 11 |
| Houston 6x | 54 | 26 | 0.68 | 11 |
| Dallas 7x | 49 | 31 | 0.61 | 16 |
| New Orleans 8 | 43 | 37 | 0.54 | 22 |
| Oklahoma City | 43 | 37 | 0.54 | 22 |
Houston Rockets
After having held down the No. 2 seed for much of the past month, the Rockets have since slipped down to the sixth spot, dropping a pair of critical contests against in-state rivals San Antonio in a recent home-and-home. The Rockets still sit just a half-game back of the second-seeded Spurs, but needing to leapfrog over three teams, it seems likelier than not that Houston will end up hitting the road to start the postseason.
Injuries have taken their toll on Houston, which has lost its best on-ball defender in Patrick Beverley and important frontcourt depth in Donatas Motiejunas to season-ending injuries.
The key to any kind of playoff run will be Dwight Howard's health. Superman has hardly lived up to that nickname while playing through a right knee injury, but CBS Sports' Zach Harper suggests that Howard could be the difference between a deep playoff run and another first-round exit:
"Howard is needed in the pick-and-roll because he's still a devastating force when he gives up the post and starts trying to score on the move. That's what made him so great in Stan Van Gundy's offense and it's what will pair perfectly with Harden's pick-and-roll capabilities. They also need his defense and rebounding to be top notch against frontcourts like Memphis or San Antonio or Portland or the Clippers or the Warriors.
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Potential MVP James Harden has carried a larger load than almost any player in the league this year, ranking first in win shares and second in VORP, behind only Stephen Curry, per Basketball-Reference.com. And yet Harden's uber-efficient offensive game failed to offset the Spurs last week, who exploited the Rockets' depleted front court when Howard was on the bench:
The Rockets are likely to face a team with an All-Star frontcourt pair, like the Memphis Grizzlies or Los Angeles Clippers, so Howard may actually represent a more important piece than Harden. As Kevin McHale works his All-Star center back into form, the Rockets are a true wild card that could either fold or forge their way to the conference finals.
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers are locked into the fourth seed as Northwest Division champs, but because of the NBA's enigmatic seeding rules, Portland will actually hit the road in the first round. As the quartet of San Antonio, Houston, Memphis and Los Angeles wrestle for the second and third seeds, the fifth seed almost looms as a sort of consolation with the promise of a matchup against Portland.
Portland has essentially suffered through a prolonged version of the injury bug that has recently hit Houston, with Wesley Matthews' Achilles injury and LaMarcus Aldridge's thumb woes dampening the enthusiasm after a hot start.
However, the peripheral stats still suggest a contender, as the Blazers are just one of five teams to rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive points per 100 possessions:
| Golden State Warriors | 111.4 (2) | 101.0 (1) |
| Atlanta Hawks | 109.2 (6) | 103.0 (5) |
| Portland Trail Blazers | 108.5 (7) | 103.6 (10) |
| San Antonio Spurs | 108.4 (8) | 101.9 (2) |
Moreover, Portland appears to have suffered from some poor luck during their post-All-Star-break malaise. According to Grantland's Zach Lowe, Portland opponents have been unusually successful from deep, despite numbers that would suggest a lower shooting percentage:
"Enemies have hit 40.4 percent from deep since the Matthews injury, the second-highest mark in the league over that span. Some of that is probably random. The big-picture indicators of Portland’s defense haven’t changed. It’s allowed the fewest 3-point attempts in that stretch, and the most midrange jumpers, per NBA.com. It’s cleaning the defensive glass, avoiding fouls, and forcing very few turnovers — the one negative result of an ultraconservative scheme that fits this group.
The scheme is producing the same shots; one particular subset of those shots are going in at an unusual rate, and they happen to be worth an extra point.
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The Blazers have experienced success against the likes of the Spurs and Rockets, taking the season series from both Texas teams. It'll be interesting to see what happens if they draw a spacing-oriented team like San Antonio or Houston, as the Blazers have been adept at forcing mid-range jumpers and taking away the three ball.
Milwaukee Bucks
A young Milwaukee squad is ahead of schedule in their organizational rebuild, though the Bucks have slowed considerably since the trade-deadline swap of Brandon Knight for Michael Carter-Williams, a move ostensibly aimed at the future rather than maximizing their 2015 playoff chances. Nevertheless, Milwaukee possesses as much length and athleticism as any team in the East, which could make them a matchup-specific problem.
The Bucks' enviable wing depth has kept them afloat after the backcourt shakeup. The trio of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Ersan Ilyasova has been starting games recently and provided stifling perimeter defense by clogging passing lanes, per Bleacher Report's Jordan Rodewald:
"Kidd has gone to a preferred lineup of Carter-Williams, KhrisMiddleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Ersan Ilyasova and Zaza Pachuliato start games. And despite the fact this lineup has produced just a 7-12 record, it has been effective to an extent.
For starters, this lineup has proven to be pretty pesky when it comes to defense. With Carter-Williams, Antetokounmpo and Middleton, this lineup is very lengthy. And one area in which it has thrived is steals. This combination has averaged 2.3 more steals than opponents per 100 possessions. With backcourt players as long as the aforementioned trio, it's clear this lineup is pesky on the perimeter, which is significant given the lack of a shot-blocker in Ilyasova andPachulia.
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As the No. 6 seed, the Bucks are set to face either the Toronto Raptors or Chicago Bulls in the first round. Neither squad possesses much in the way of perimeter shooting, instead relying on slashers like DeMar Derozan and Derrick Rose. Recent projections gave Milwaukee a roughly 2-3 chance of facing the Raptors:
The Bucks dropped two out of three to Toronto this year, but none of those matchups came after Milwaukee revamped its rotation after the trade deadline, so the regular-season track record is essentially useless.
Either way, with All-Star point guards Rose and Kyle Lowry entering the postseason after having missed long stretches of time, an upset is a stronger possibility than one might expect regardless of if the Bucks draw Chicago or Toronto.
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