Masters Odds 2015: Locating Top Vegas Bets in Sunday's Field
Could Jordan Spieth possibly pull a Greg Norman? That's the biggest question you must ask yourself as you attempt to figure out if anybody can challenge Spieth in the final round of the 2015 Masters.
The 21-year-old owns a four-shot lead heading into Sunday, and he's been by far the best golfer at the Augusta National Golf Club. It would seem Justin Rose, Charley Hoffman and Phil Mickelson are the only viable threats to overtake Spieth on Day 4.
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While it's not impossible for Spieth to throw his lead away, the likelihood of it happening seems extremely low. He'll be the massive favorite to win after three rounds, and that's evident with one look at the odds, courtesy of Oddschecker at 1 a.m. ET on Sunday.
| Jordan Spieth | 4/9 |
| Justin Rose | 9/2 |
| Phil Mickelson | 11/2 |
| Charley Hoffman | 30/1 |
| Rory McIlroy | 80/1 |
| Tiger Woods | 125/1 |
| Dustin Johnson | 150/1 |
Let's take a look at whether it's a good idea to bet on anybody else but Spieth to win the Masters.
Of Course You Bet on Spieth
It's not simply the fact that Spieth has a four-shot lead after three rounds that makes him the safest bet to win on Sunday. It's more the totality of his performance at Augusta, even going back to last year. In 2014, he finished tied for second in his Masters debut. Through his second appearance, he only went and set tournament records, per Golf Channel's Kelly Tilghman:
Spieth is looking wise beyond his years, and without a double-bogey on No. 17 Saturday, he could've owned a six-shot lead over Rose after 54 holes.
Yahoo Sports' Pat Forde firmly believes that anything short of Spieth going AWOL will mean the Dallas native earns his first green jacket:
Some will likely point to last year's Masters, when Spieth held a share of the lead going into the fourth round. He shot a 72 in Round 4, which allowed Bubba Watson to get the second Masters win of his career.
Spieth made it clear that he's looking for redemption this time around.
"Last year left a bad taste in my mouth and I want to put it right," he said after his round Saturday, per The Telegraph's James Corrigan. "Today felt a little bit different—I was more anxious. But I kept it together and that putt on the last was huge."
ESPN.com's Ian O'Connor believes that talk of a potential meltdown for Spieth are overblown:
"When reminded that Greg Norman had blown a six-shot lead to Nick Faldo the year before, (Colin) Montgomerie said, "This is very different. Faldo's not lying second, for a start. And Greg Norman's not Tiger Woods."
Jordan Spieth isn't Tiger Woods, either, and he doesn't have the same kind of margin for error. But still, he's a no-doubt-about-it prodigy who has won on tour and who has already experienced the final-group madness of the Masters. He didn't melt as a Sunday newbie, by the way. He made a couple of mistakes before the turn and shot a respectable 72.
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At this point, it seems you'd be crazy to back anybody but Spieth to win.
Please, Spieth's Gonna Collapse
Of course, Augusta can be extremely unforgiving, and a few golfers have looked to have one hand on a green jacket going into the final round only to fall apart over 18 holes. Norman's disastrous 1996 finish and Rory McIlroy's final round in 2011 immediately come to mind.
Norman was the first image that came to mind for ESPN's Bomani Jones:
Last year, Spieth didn't really have any expectations surrounding his Masters performance. It was only his first time in the tournament, and if he failed to win, then it wouldn't be a huge deal.
After his first three rounds this year, though, Spieth has set the bar incredibly high for himself, and he has gone from the hunter to the hunted. As much as he and others want to argue that this situation is foreign to Spieth, it's simply not true.
Nothing can fully prepare you for going into the final round of the Masters with a four-stroke lead and the eyes of the eyes of the golf world on you. This is a kind of pressure Spieth hasn't experienced before.
Maybe he cracks.
It's fair to question whether Hoffman has a serious shot to win the tournament. He's never finished in the top 10 of a major and has just one other Masters appearance to his name. The 38-year-old tied for 27th in 2011.
As The Guardian's Ewan Murray noted, Hoffman is playing the Rodney Dangerfield role at Augusta this year:
Perhaps Hoffman will win. More than likely, though, Mickelson and Rose are your only real choices in terms of a challenger for Spieth. You can view how they've performed historically in final rounds at the Masters below, courtesy of Augusta.com:
Rose has never tasted success at the Masters, but he won the 2013 U.S. Open and has multiple top-10 finishes at major tournaments to his name.
Mickelson, meanwhile, already has three green jackets hanging in his closet, and a fourth would mean he'd tie Tiger Woods and Arnold Palmer for most Masters wins, per ESPN.com's Jason Sobel:
| 2014 | ---- | 74 |
| 2013 | 73 | 74 |
| 2012 | 72 | 68 |
| 2011 | 74 | 68 |
| 2010 | 67 | ---- |
| 2009 | 67 | 71 |
| 2008 | 72 | 76 |
| 2007 | 77 | 73 |
| 2006 | 69 | ---- |
| 2005 | 74 | ---- |
That's pretty special company and illustrates how how Augusta has become a second home for the 44-year-old. And although he hasn't put together too many brilliant final rounds of late at the Masters, something in the 67 to 69 range might be enough for Lefty to climb to the top of the leaderboard.
Still, back Mickelson and Rose at your own peril.
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