2015 Masters: Updated Odds After the Cut
There's a runaway train at Augusta National Golf Club and its name is Jordan Spieth. It's full-on Spieth Mode for the old soul from Dallas, Texas.
His record-setting run through 36 holes has forced the hand of everyone hoping to keep pace and hoping Spieth will melt down. It's hard to imagine he will after posting nothing but threes and fours on Day 2.
"Last year and momentum from the last few weeks feels good," Spieth said during the ESPN broadcast. "I like how I'm striking the ball."
It's not a complete runaway yet. Charley Hoffman is in the mix, as well as Jason Day, Ernie Els and Justin Rose.
Spieth is the overwhelming favorite to win the Masters after the cut, but he still has to earn it. Read on to see an updated list of odds for the contenders heading into the weekend.
Rory McIlroy
1 of 9
Masters Title Odds: 50-1
Reason to Buy: If you focused on McIlroy's 31 on the back nine in Round 2, then yes, you buy. It's that 40 on the front nine that killed him.
"I wish I didn't need to play a back nine like that to get back to two-under," McIlroy said in a post-round interview. "I need four more nines like that to have a shot."
If you were told that McIlroy would be even par partway through his round on Friday and would still be 14 strokes back, what would you say? Would you believe it? He played his way back to two-under.
"You can't force the issue," ESPN's Curtis Strange said during the television broadcast. "If it's a go-pin, you have to take advantage of the par fives because you're that far behind. If you force it, you'll make stupid bogeys."
Reason to Sell: Contrary to what Strange said, McIlroy may try to force the issue and dig himself a deeper and deeper hole.
There was enough pressure on McIlroy coming into this event as he made a bid for the career Grand Slam. What happened instead was Spieth sucking the wind out of everyone's sails and blowing it into his.
But, as Tiger Woods said during a post-round interview, "You can play well and shoot over par here. That's what this course does."
If Spieth comes back to the field and McIlroy has back-to-back 64s, he can play himself right into finely tailored green threads.
He Can Win the Green Jacket if...He shoots 128 over the weekend while everyone else comes back to him. The likelihood of this ranks somewhere between winning the lottery and getting struck by lightning.
Ernie Els
2 of 9
Masters Title Odds: 35-1
Reason to Buy: He's a four-time major champion and he’s playing with little pressure. After his impressive first round, he spoke in a post-round interview about finally finding driver shafts to his liking.
As a result, he was able to play consistent, low-scoring, five-under-par golf.
"We kind of are running out of time a little bit here," Els said in Cameron Morfit's Golf.com story. "So we really are trying to enjoy what we've got left."
He was referring to his age, being 45 and all. But he may as well be referring to the fleeting feeling of this tournament. Spieth can't be caught and Els is running out of time.
Reason to Sell: The Big Easy has frequented the bogey land six times in the two rounds and that propensity for squared numbers won't allow him to get into Spieth's orbit.
Els is one of the feel-good stories of the week, but feel-good stories don't lower the score any.
He Can Win the Green Jacket if...He cleans up those bogeys and the field comes back to him. If he had parred those bogeys, Els is at 11-under par and only three strokes back of Spieth.
Kevin Na
3 of 9
Masters Title Odds: 30-1
Reason to Buy: Two golfers shot six-under par in Round 2: Spieth and Kevin Na.
He's four-under par after six birdies and one eagle. Two bogeys kept Na from having a truly special round of 64.
He shot 66 despite missing five fairways. Impressive.
Reason to Sell: Missing too many greens.
He was 11-of-18 in the first round and he was 12-of-18 in the Round 2. He was recorded that second round six-under despite missing five fairways and missing six greens.
Na is playing with fire here.
He Can Win the Green Jacket if…He hits fairways and greens. The fact that he shot six-under while missing five fairways and six greens is incredible. Imagine what he can do with a cleaner card from tee to green.
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Charley Hoffman
4 of 9
Masters Title Odds: 25-1
Reason to Buy: Charley Hoffman has been the only golfer over two days who has kept within a short iron play of Spieth. At nine-under par through two days, he'll get a chance to pair with Spieth and effectively look him in the eye for Round 3.
"He's the type of player that when he's playing good, he's good," said ESPN analyst Andy North during the ESPN broadcast.
Hoffman has a couple of top 15s in his last two events and won the OHL Classic at Mayakoba during the wrap season so he has the capacity to close and win.
Reason to Sell: Hoffman hasn't done much this year to suggest he can keep pace and win a major golf tournament.
Charley Hoffman Masters champion doesn't roll off the tongue with any degree of seriousness.
His tee shot on No. 18 Friday needed help from the tree trolls to keep it out of the needles. Hoffman appears ready for a nice pay day, but he'll be an also-ran by the time Sunday rolls around.
He Will Win the Green Jacket if...He stays aggressive.
"I'm going pin-hunting for sure," Hoffman said after his round.
That could burn him or it could keep him in contention.
Paul Casey
5 of 9
Masters Title Odds: 20-1
Reason to Buy: He's shooting that classic Masters scorecard that would spell "serious contender" were it not for Spieth.
Casey has one total bogey and four birdies in each round for a score of seven-under par. He’s in the perfect spot to strike on the weekend with two such consistent and well-played rounds.
The universal problem is Speith.
Reason to Sell: He has just one birdie on the par fives. You can't win this tournament without at least scoring birdies on the par fives. Too many of the serious contenders—including Spieth and Dustin Johnson—absolutely crush these par fives.
In so many ways, the par fives are the way to unlock this golf course.
He Can Win the Green Jacket if…Casey starts going real low on the par fives. He has quite a mastery of the par threes and fours, and if he can go eight-under on the par fives over the weekend, Casey will have a chance.
Phil Mickelson
6 of 9
Masters Title Odds: 15-1
Reason to Buy: Phil Mickelson's game has gotten cleaner and cleaner. He had just one bogey in the second round. His driving accuracy was solid, which gave him chances around the greens since he didn't hit many of those.
Reason to Sell: He missed a lot of greens in Round 2. Lefty has missed 11 greens over two rounds, which puts a lot of pressure on his short game. This should come as no surprise.
He's done well to get to six-under par, but he's still eight back of Spieth and that means Lefty will start gambling. That could mean one of two things: a super low score or he'll spray the shots like a sprinkler all over August National Golf Club.
He Can Win the Green Jacket if...He stays within himself. Like ESPN's Curtis Strange said in the McIlroy slide, "You can't force the issue." If Mickelson can manage that, he gives himself the best shot at not losing the Masters.
You get it.
Justin Rose
7 of 9
Masters Title Odds: 9-1
Reason to Buy: Justin Rose is tied for third at seven-under, this after four bogeys in Round 2. He recorded four birdies on the back nine to give himself a chance his second career major.
The name of his game is fairways: When he hits them, he's deadly. In Round 1, he hit 13 of 14 fairways and in Round 2 he missed four.
Reason to Sell: Too many bogeys. He had four bogeys in his second round and that nearly did him in. He opened with three bogeys in the first four holes.
He did well to dig out of that hole, but imagine his positioning if he had half the bogeys. Rose may be singing Dixie.
He Can Win the Green Jacket if…He keeps painting those fairways with golf shots. In Rose's six-birdie first round, he missed just one fairway.
The equation is pretty simple.
Dustin Johnson
8 of 9
Masters Title Odds: 6-1
Reason to Buy: Dustin Johnson is a major threat to contend in this tournament after posting a record three eagles in Round 2. Were it not for an opening-hole double-bogey that sent him to even par, Johnson may have been seven-under and within seven of Spieth.
"It was pretty tough out there," Johnson said during the ESPN broadcast. "I hit a lot of great shots and holed some putts."
He was six under par on the par fives in Round 2 and eight-under par over the two days. That's a record three eagles in one round. He's doing what he's supposed to on the par fives, which is crush them.
Reason to Sell: Do not sell. He is feasting on these par fives while Spieth is merely picking at the bones of them.
If Johnson plays like he did in Round 2 and can clobber those par fives, he could be in the final pairing making Spieth away on nearly every hole. That'll put Johnson in the position of being able to react to every punch Spieth delivers.
He Can Win a Green Jacket if…He keeps crushing the par fives. These par fives are have DJ written all over them. He gets eight more cracks at these holes.
Spieth has been birdieing these holes so the best way for DJ to make up ground is drink his Red Bull and grow some wings.
Jordan Spieth
9 of 9
Masters Title Odds: Even
Reason to Buy: Being 14 under par through 36 holes is a Masters record and a major tournament record. Spieth drained 15 birdies through the first two rounds.
"Everybody marvels at his game," said ESPN analyst Curtis Strange during the television broadcast. "Nothing stands out. More than anything else it's his poise on this stage. It has been phenomenal."
Some courses and players click together like Lego blocks. Spieth and Augusta make for that kind combo.
Reason to Sell: If he stalls or slides back to the field and suddenly his lead is only two or three shots with four or five holes to go, he could tighten up.
During the playoff in the Shell Houston Open, he lost on the first hole after a yanked drive and a poor chip. It's conceivable, though unlikely, this scenario plays out. You'd have to be Rasputin to sell on Spieth after Friday.
Will Win the Green Jacket if...He keeps playing intelligent, non-impulsive golf. Speith has shown he can lay up if he has to or back off a tap-in putt. If he does that and keeps the ball in the fairway, he'll join Woods as the other 21-year-old to win this event.
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