Ross Ohlendorf: Is He the Pittsburgh Pirates' Latest Breakout Pitcher?

Among Pirate pitchers, Ian Snell and Tom Gorzelanny were breakout stories in 2007 (before regressing in 2008). Paul Maholm had a breakthrough year in 2008, and Zach Duke in 2009.

Could Ross Ohlendorf, who's near his 170 inning limit, finish in 2010 as the breakout that may be starting now, at the end of 2009?

Sometimes pitchers make quantum jumps, by either introducing a new pitch to their repertoire, or by refining their old ones. In the case of Ohlendorf, it's an overhead delivery that adds to his deception. 

Upon using this new delivery, he has an ERA of 2.32 for the month of August, going into Tuesday's game. That shaved his seasonal ERA by half a percentage point from early July, which is no small matter.

If maintained, it would make him a bona fide top of rotation pitcher. Neither Zach Duke nor Paul Maholm quite qualify, although both of them are on the strong side of middle of rotation.

Historically, Ohlendorf has done better against American League teams, who haven't seen him much, than National League teams, who have seen him more.

Most encouraging was the fact that he improved in late July and August against Washington, Milwaukee, and Colorado; teams that had seen him before. (Earlier in the year, it had been the other way around, with teams improving their results after seeing him for the second or third time.)

For the Pirates, getting Ohlendorf represented a piece of luck. They had initially agreed to trade right fielder Xavier Nady and reliever Damasco Marte to the New York Yankees for right field prospect Jose Tabata, starter Jeff Karstens, and pitching prospects George Kontos and Phil Coke.

But Kontos failed a physical, so at the last minute, the Yankees substituted Ohlendorf and Dan McCutchen for Kontos and Coke. Ohlendorf had a brief record, although an undistinguished one, in the majors, with a 6.46 ERA in 2008.

He has improved in 2009, with an ERA in the fours, and has the winningest record of any Pirate pitcher, albeit against back-of-rotation competition.

And if Ohlendorf makes his breakthrough next year and vaults to the front of the rotation, perhaps the Pirates can hope for one in 2011 from either Charlie Morton or Kevin Hart, and in 2012 from the remaining one.

That would give the Pirates an above-average rotation by the time the hitters should be reaching their stride, which is something they have not had for a long time.