NBA Draft Lottery 2015: Predictions, Updated Standings for No. 1 Pick
Enjoy your race for the NBA title, Golden State Warriors, Atlanta Hawks, San Antonio Spurs and Cleveland Cavaliers. There is another battle unfolding in the final week of the 2014-15 NBA season.
The race for the top pick in the NBA draft is a narrow one between the likes of the New York Knicks, Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers, Philadelphia 76ers and others. It is certainly an important battle as well, as a single elite player can make the difference between a playoff spot and future lotteries in the NBA.
With that in mind, here is a look at the updated standings and chances of landing the No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft before digging into some predictions for how the lottery will unfold.
*Lottery chances are courtesy of ESPN's Chad Ford, as of April 9 at 11 p.m. ET.
| 1 | New York Knicks | 25.0% |
| 2 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 19.9% |
| 3 | Philadelphia 76ers | 15.6% |
| 4 | Los Angeles Lakers | 11.9% |
| 5 | Orlando Magic | 8.8% |
| 6 | Sacramento Kings | 6.3% |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | 4.3% |
| 8 | Detroit Pistons | 2.8% |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | 1.7% |
| 10 | Miami Heat | 1.1% |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | 0.8% |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | 0.7% |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns | 0.6% |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 0.5% |
Lottery Predictions
Whoever Wins the Lottery Will Take Karl-Anthony Towns Over Jahlil Okafor
The biggest debate regarding this year's lottery is who will be the top pick between Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor.
In some ways, it is a debate between the known and the unknown. Okafor is a proven commodity who will likely put up impressive scoring and rebounding numbers right away at the next level. Between his strength on the blocks, impressive footwork and ability to hit teammates when double-teams come his way, Okafor already has a polished offensive attack.
However, Towns’ ceiling is higher because of his defensive ability and overall athleticism. Whichever team wins the lottery will ultimately be swayed by that potential over the proven commodity that is Okafor.
NBC Sports pointed out that Towns has the momentum, while Ford noted that the lack of a head-to-head showdown in the NCAA tournament probably helps Towns:
The biggest advantage for Towns over Okafor comes on the defensive side. Towns is an explosive force on that end of the floor who swats anything within sight (2.3 blocks per game in 21.1 minutes per night). He will also patrol the boards and has the skill set to guard athletic forwards or bigger, more powerful centers.
Okafor is the better offensive player, but the difference between Okafor and Towns on offense is not as big as the gap between the two players on defense. Towns can score on the blocks, shoot from mid-range, face up defenders and use the dribble or get out in transition with that athleticism.
Towns’ ceiling is simply higher than Okafor’s. Both will be excellent players at the next level, but Towns is going to be drafted first by the lottery winner.
Emmanuel Mudiay Will Be the No. 3 Pick
If we are to assume Towns and Okafor go Nos. 1 and 2 overall, there are still a number of impressive players who graced college basketball fans' TV screens all year that could go No. 3.
Ohio State’s D’Angelo Russell, Duke’s Justise Winslow and Kentucky’s Willie Cauley-Stein all come to mind, but it will actually be a player who did not play a single minute of college basketball who goes after Towns and Okafor.
That player is point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, and this is another case of ceiling over the proven production.
Mudiay played in China instead of the college ranks this season and flashed his skills at a professional level. Plenty of those skills emanate from his physical traits that allow him to blow past defenders in the open floor, finish at the rim through contact and see over the top of defenders to hit teammates with crisp passes.
Mudiay is a physical specimen at 6’5”, and the incredible potential is clear when that size is combined with his explosive athleticism. He is nearly impossible to stop when he gets a head of steam in transition, but he is powerful enough to score at the rim over bigger defenders.
He is also a solid rebounder, versatile enough to play either guard position and is always looking to find teammates with precise passes.
Mudiay discussed how playing overseas will help him at the next level over the college prospects he is competing against for favorable draft position, per Evan Daniels of Scout.com: “I’d say yes. I was playing against 30-year old men that are trying to feed their family. In college, they are trying to get an education and try to get a job after that. I was put in a job position.”
It’s hard to argue with that notion, especially when the player in question has the raw skills that Mudiay does. Whichever team finishes No. 3 in the lottery will draft him over the remaining top college prospects.
Follow me on Twitter:
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
