Masters Favorites 2015: Final Odds and Predictions for Golf's Top Contenders
Talking about favorites is a necessary evil of every major championship, which is both fantastic and a little difficult.
There isn't anything illuminating one can necessarily say about Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, et al. Everyone with even a modicum of golf knowledge knows a decent amount about these guys and the quirks to their game. Discussing McIlroy at this point is essentially akin to writing about LeBron James; the dude is so awesome at what he does, you find yourself nitpicking.
The good thing about golf is that nitpicking can mean the difference between putting on a green jacket and a disappointing outcome. Unlike team sports, where there are any number of variables at play, there is only one person manning the controls.
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With that in mind, let's take a quick look at the favorites for Augusta and leap into some wild predictions.
| Rory McIlroy | 11-2 |
| Jordan Spieth | 8-1 |
| Bubba Watson | 10-1 |
| Jason Day | 14-1 |
| Dustin Johnson | 16-1 |
| Henrik Stenson | 18-1 |
| Phil Mickelson | 18-1 |
| Adam Scott | 20-1 |
| Jimmy Walker | 22-1 |
| Patrick Reed | 28-1 |
| Justin Rose | 33-1 |
| Matt Kuchar | 33-1 |
| Rickie Fowler | 33-1 |
| Tiger Woods | 33-1 |
| J.B. Holmes | 40-1 |
| Lee Westwood | 40-1 |
| Sergio Garcia | 40-1 |
| Billy Horschel | 50-1 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | 50-1 |
| Brooks Koepka | 66-1 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 66-1 |
| Jim Furyk | 66-1 |
| Keegan Bradley | 66-1 |
| Paul Casey | 66-1 |
| Angel Cabrera | 80-1 |
| Charl Schwartzel | 80-1 |
| Gary Woodland | 80-1 |
| Hunter Mahan | 80-1 |
| Ian Poulter | 80-1 |
| Martin Kaymer | 80-1 |
| Ryan Moore | 80-1 |
| Victor Dubuisson | 80-1 |
| Zach Johnson | 80-1 |
Quick-Hit Predictions for Favorites
Rory McIlroy (11-2)
McIlroy would become the second-youngest golfer in history to complete the career Grand Slam with a win at Augusta. The world No. 1 took 2014's final two majors in fine form and enters the weekend a clear favorite over the field.
I'm not quite yet sold on him pulling it off. His 2011 collapse remains one of the defining moments of his young career. Overnight, he developed a reputation as having a fragile mindset, a criticism that basically followed him until he went back-to-back at The Open Championship and PGA last year. He's clearly the best player in the world right now, but McIlroy even admitted to reporters he still gets butterflies on Augusta's opening tee.
It's possible McIlroy pulls it off. He's the best player in the world. If I had my choice of him at the 11-2 odds or someone else deeper down, though, I'd have look back on his Augusta demons and look elsewhere.
Prediction: Top 20
Jordan Spieth (8-1)
It's hard to have a better Augusta debut than Spieth. Then just 20 years old, Spieth was tied for the 54-hole lead before Bubba Watson pulled away for a three-stroke victory on Sunday. It was one of the most impressive feats in recent Augusta history and parlayed Spieth into household name status. Spieth discussed the experience with George Willis of the New York Post:
"The hardest lesson taken from last year was that I had an opportunity to make a dream come true and I had it in my hands and then I was just a little anxious. You can make the excuse that as a first-time and whatever, 20 years old, that that's likely to happen. But in my mind, I was playing the best through 60 holes, 62 holes and had an opportunity to continue that the next 10 or 11 holes and didn't quite close it.
"
Twelve months later, Spieth has added three more career victories to his total and nearly moved up to No. 2 in the World Golf Rankings last week. In his last eight events, he's finished worse than 17th once and has six top-10s.
Making it seven in nine feels like a conservative enough prediction. Spieth winning the Masters at age 21 would put him on an all-timer trajectory, all but cementing him and McIlroy as the two future faces of the sport. I tend to enjoy being pleasantly surprised by history rather than expecting it.
Prediction: Top 10
Bubba Watson (10-1)
Watson has made six Masters starts in his career. Twice, obviously, he's won. In the other four, Watson has finished no better than 20th and has an average finish of 37.5.
Point being: If Watson's not winning, he's probably not contending. And—spoiler—there aren't too many dudes in history who have pulled off the back-to-back Masters feat. Sam Snead, Jack Nicklaus, Nick Faldo and Tiger Woods are the only four players in history to pull it off.
Watson's a good player whose game fits Augusta well. He's not about to join that list.
Prediction: Top 35
Jason Day (14-1)
Quietly one of the most consistent players on the PGA Tour, Day deserves more national recognition than he receives. He has seven top-10 results in major championships since 2010, including five top fives.
Two of those have come at Augusta. Day was Spieth before Spieth, finishing in a tie for second place in his first Masters appearance. He added a third-place outing in 2013. At this point last year, in fact, Day could have become the world's top-ranked player with a triumph at Augusta.
He wound up 20th. I'm expecting more of the same here, with Day winding up somewhere on the general fringes of contention without putting on the green jacket.
Prediction: Top 15
Dustin Johnson (16-1)
Saving the best for last here, as Johnson is my choice to take home the green jacket this weekend. He's been a changed player since returning to the course in February, earning four top-sixes in his six starts. Add in his seven career top-10 outings in major championships, and Johnson is as close to "due" as any potential first-time winner.
"This year, I feel a little bit better coming in here, a little more confident in my game," Johnson said, per Noah Feit of the Aiken Standard, via PGA.com. "I feel like I'm doing the right things with the golf game. I feel like continuing to get a little bit better. You know, with my play this year, definitely playing a lot more consistent and more solid coming in here."
Johnson has never finished better than 13th at Augusta, but he does all the little things that typically lend themselves well to the course. He's the longest driver on tour, putts well and does an excellent job of getting himself out of trouble. Assuming the "bad" can be kept to the occasional bogey rather than an all-out meltdown, Johnson is ready to earn his first green jacket.
Prediction: Winner
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