Who Are the Experts Predicting to Vikings in the First Round of the NFL Draft?
Last week, we looked at national mock drafts to see who the experts have been mocking to the Minnesota Vikings, finding that the overwhelming answer was Michigan State cornerback Trae Waynes.
This week, we’ll expand the scope of experts and look at even more mock drafts to see the changes brought by the passing of a week and the minds of other prominent draft analysts. Though not included in the final tally, we’ll also include various bloggers of the team, getting their pulse on who the Vikings will pick and what the team needs.
Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
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Trae Waynes still holds the lead among draft analysts as the most likely pick for the Minnesota Vikings, though the lead is not nearly as dominant as it was last week. This week, of the 57 mock drafts that were cataloged, only 18 had Trae Waynes wearing a Vikings cap come late April.
Though that gives Waynes the plurality of Vikings selections, it doesn't mean his selection is imminent.
It’s difficult to talk about Waynes and his fit with the Vikings without repeating oneself. So, a quick summary will do.
Waynes is a highly successful cornerback who has been productive. He didn't allow a touchdown in two seasons, though he only nabbed six interceptions in that time.
Waynes’ biggest issue may be that he’s a product of a Cover-4 system, allowing him to virtually ignore in-breaking routes.
He also has stiffness issues he needs to resolve. A bad combine in the agility drills was evidence of that. A mediocre (but better) showing in his pro day probably does not resolve those concerns.
Though his skill set may sound like he’s best fit as a zone corner, he does a better job reacting to receivers than he does to offenses or quarterbacks. He doesn’t always diagnose route concepts quickly or read the quarterback’s eyes well.
His "grabbiness" is a big concern as well, which should lead to a number of penalties. However, his physicality and willingness to mix it up is good. He’s active in run support, though his small frame may get him into trouble there.
Should he speed up his recognition or find ways to improve his fluidity, he can be a good fit in a versatile scheme. His combination of speed and sideline awareness can do a lot to take away the deep ball—perhaps more than any other corner in the draft.
He’s extremely coachable. That may be the key to the pick.
Waynes was selected in eighteen of the mocks surveyed. Those include both mocks at Walter Football—one by Charlie Campbell and the other by Walter Cherepinsky—as well as major media like NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks and Charley Casserole. ESPN.com's Mel Kiper joined the loud chorus in calling for the Vikings to select Waynes, too. Others, like Josh Norris at Rotoworld, Nick Klopsis at Newsday, Jamie Newberg at Scout.com and Peter King at SportsIllustrated.com picked Waynes in their mocks. Former scout Dan Shonka at Ourlads also made Waynes his pick for the squad.
Dan Kadar at Mocking the Draft, Colin Lindsay at the Great Blue North Draft Report, Matt Brown with Sports on Earth, Doug Kyed at NESN, Robert Davis at Football’s Future, the machine at DraftTek, the bloggers at SB Nation and Bleacher Report’s own Tim Daniels selected Waynes for Minnesota.
Vikings bloggers followed the same pattern. Three of them picked Waynes: Adam Carlson at the Viking Age and Vikings Territory bloggers Brent LaBathe and Adam Warwas.
DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
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Already a popular pick for those penning mock drafts, DeVante Parker saw an upsurge in selections when widening the net of mock sites. In fact, his name was even more prevalent in previously used sites in more recent mock drafts.
Though much of the analysis of this first-round pick starts (and ends) with the pedantic fact that quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and DeVante Parker were indeed teammates, Parker has a legitimate shot to be drafted in the early and has great receiving skills that the Vikings seemingly lacked last year and may again this year.
An excellent high-point receiver who stuffs the highlight reels with his vertical ability, Parker possesses what the lengthy Cordarrelle Patterson and Charles Johnson might not: a real catch radius. The ability to win those 50-50 balls can bail out quarterbacks anywhere. Where it might have the most impact in Minnesota is in compressed space—the Vikings had the 10th-fewest passing touchdowns inside the opponent’s 10-yard line last year.
A lot of that comes from having few such attempts. It's a combination of having an inexperienced offense incapable of getting there on a consistent basis and also having the benefit-cost ratio of running the ball from inside the 10-yard-line versus passing it.
The developing abilities of Teddy Bridgewater are good, but Matt Asiata’s astounding ability to avoid negative plays helped him rack up nine touchdowns last year—all in short-yardage situations.
Of course, some of that play selection was driven by missing offensive firepower for red-zone situations.
Parker seems custom cut for those kinds of situations. The “chemistry” he and Bridgewater have built is icing on the cake. He complements his vertical ability with fantastic timing, phenomenal hands and superior body control.
Outside of jump balls, Parker has serious work to do. It helps that he’s an intelligent player who can adjust his routes and respond to changes in the defensive structure, but he can get pushed around despite his size (which is in fact lankier than desirable—another thing he has in common with Bridgewater).
That, in addition to rough route-running—marked by sloppiness and rounded routes—means he’s not a perfect prospect. Another issue is that his speed may be topped out, though a foot injury could have hid his true speed. There’s upside, but not quite the upside of many other prospects.
Thirteen analysts picked Parker for the Vikings, including three CBS writers—Rob Rang, Dane Brugler and Will Brinson. NFL.com colleagues Daniel Jeremiah, Brian Baldinger and Charles Davis made the same pick, as did Chris Burke at Sports Illustrated. At Optimum Scouting, Eric Galko decided to pair former teammates. Though both Walter Football mocks selected Waynes, the consensus of the site's readers selected Parker.
Four Bleacher Report writers also liked this idea, including lead draft analyst Matt Miller, Curt Popejoy, Sean O’Donnell and Andrew Gould.
Vikings blogger Austin Berlisle also selected Parker.
La'el Collins, OT, LSU
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In another life, La’el Collins could have been a dominant heavyweight fighter. Good movement and a nasty attitude mark this big tackle from Louisiana State. He has guard flexibility as well. While only five mock drafts figured that Collins would continue to wear purple (with a different shade of gold), the choice is certainly popular enough to consider.
Collins has underrated technical ability as a tackle. That’s not the first thing you’ll hear about him or something that’s often said, but it sometimes pays to emphasize the underreported aspects of a player’s game.
His footwork on the edge is sound. He knows how to use his length to corral the faster defenders rushing the passer. His hands are powerful and his punch can overcome some speed problems he has against pass rushers with great first steps. He also knows how to use his paws to control the running game.
That said, “underrated” doesn’t mean "good." There are a lot of bad habits Collins needs to fix, including footwork against interior rushers and hand placement in pass protection. A heavy-handed, violent player, his hands keep working, but they are often too high and wide of the target.
He’ll need to sink his hips more as both a pass protector and run defender, and his unwillingness to sit can take away both balance and power. Should the Vikings select Collins, they may be in a situation where they have both Collins and 2014 fifth-round pick David Yankey on the offensive line. It may be embarrassing to have two offensive linemen with balance issues next to each other.
Luckily, Collins is extremely experienced in the complex LSU running scheme, which includes rare plays like inside pitches that the Vikings use and a good mix of zone-style plays and power plays. Experience in multiple running schemes is difficult to come by, and though Collins isn’t the speediest tackle, he’s a good fit for the Minnesota offense.
Todd McShay of ESPN.com picked Collins, as did Rob Hill at With the First Pick, Dan Hope at Buffalo Bills Draft, the folks at NFL Draft War Room and Bleacher Report’s Michelle Bruton.
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Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
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The smooth route-runner from Alabama was nearly a lock to go in the top five when the college season started, but the postseason circuit has been kinder to combine superstars like Kevin White and Vic Beasley, making it possible for Cooper to land in Minnesota.
Though much is made of his high level of technical proficiency, not much is made of his pure physical ability. Often, players who play with technical ability and intelligence are seen as having ”topped out” in their skills. Nothing could be further from the truth for Cooper.
Aside from the fact that the Minnesota Vikings know the other side of this fallacy intimately because of their investment in another “high-floor/low-ceiling” player like Teddy Bridgewater, not much is made of the fact that a nearly topped out player isn’t a bad thing if he’s already extremely good, which Cooper is.
Beyond that, Cooper has loads of physical ability. His 40-yard dash time was closer to 4.35 seconds than it was the reported 4.42. He had some of the best quickness scores at the combine. That combination of speed and quickness should overcome overblown concerns about his height and weight, which is where “upside” analysis seems to begin and end.
Average NFL athletes have risen to the top of the game because of technical ability and finding ways to improve. The extremely fast, extremely fluid Amari Cooper is capable of the same. Showing more ability to win contested catches than even Parker (not all contested catches are jump balls—they’ll appear in the middle of the field, on slant passes or on comeback routes) and playing with proficiency in the deep ball, Cooper may be able to do it all.
That said, he’ll get ahead of his own offense sometimes. It could be a chemistry issue, arrogance or simply having a more advanced understanding of the offense than the quarterback. Cooper adjusts too often or drastically to defensive looks. These get him open, but if the quarterback doesn’t know where he’s going to be, it’s not a useful skill.
Having a better understanding of what the offense should do isn’t all that special. He’ll need to establish rapport with the quarterback and do what the signal-caller expects him to do.
He needs to win the physical battles more often. Cooper has some issues boxing out defenders, run blocking and winning with power after the catch. Therefore he may not fit an offense that loves to have more physical receivers. That's something that will likely hold him back at the next level. However, he would be a great pick in the abstract.
Four others agreed, including Bryan Perez at First Round Grade, Shane P. Hallam at FanSpeak, Bleacher Report’s Chris Roling and the Chicago Bears' former director of college scouting Greg Gabriel in the Pro Football Now magazine (h/t Kevin Fishbain of Chicago Football).
The Rest
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While there is still a general consensus that the Vikings will pick between two players—Waynes and Parker—a broader survey of mock drafts reveal a broader array of potential Minnesota players.
Offensive Line
Five of the mock drafts selected one of two other offensive linemen, either Brandon Scherff of Iowa or Andrus Peat from Stanford. The latter would reunite with lineman David Yankey. Scherff wins with strength, while Peat wins with length. Both have the physical profiles of powerful offensive linemen. While they both have issues to work on (speed for Scherff , technique for Peat), both have fantastic upsides. Two Bleacher Report writers selected an offensive lineman, with Steven Cook grabbing Scherff and Mike Chiari picking Andrus Peat. Peat was also selected by Don Banks at SportsIllustrated.com, while George Stockburger at NFL Mocks and Eric Edholm at Yahoo Sports preferred the Iowa product.
Defensive Back
The Vikings pass defense didn't escape the notice of six mock drafts. Landon Collins was picked in mock drafts from Pete Prisco of CBS.com and Shaun King of Yahoo Sports. Byron Jones was the selection in Evan Silva and Josh Norris' joint mock at Rotoworld. Marcus Peters was the choice in three mocks—Steve Shoup of FanSpeak, Kyle Crabbs of NDT Scouting and Eric Lambert of NFL Mocks.
Collins is a powerful run defender who may be best suited as a nickel linebacker at the next level given his coverage issues, while Peters is saddled with numerous off-field problems. Byron Jones is a physical wonder. He has questions about injuries and the ability to meet his prodigious ceiling.
Wide Receiver
Three mock drafts selected a receiver for the Minnesota Vikings, with Justis Mosqueda and Jon Dove both here at Bleacher Report selecting Kevin White at his pre-combine value. An all-upside but risky Dorial Green-Beckham was the pick from Jason McIntyre from the Big Lead. White has limited tape and a small route tree but has fantastic physical ability to pair with good production. Green-Beckham has the most upside of any receiver in the draft. He also has some of the worst off-field issues in the group as well.
There were three picks for other positions, including the still confusing Danny Shelton pick by Lance Zierlein at NFL.com, a developmental defensive end pick from Scott Carasik at Pro Football Spot and a safe but potentially overvalued pick in linebacker Eric Kendricks from Jeff Lloyd at Draft Breakdown.
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