Cro Cop vs. Gonzaga 2: A Complete Guide to UFC Fight Night 64
UFC Fight Night 64 hits Krakow, Poland, this weekend with a heavyweight main event.
Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic returns to the UFC to battle Gabriel Gonzaga. They first met at UFC 70, and that fight ended with one of the most brutal and most surprising knockouts in UFC history. Gonzaga landed a head kick to crumple Cro Cop.
There are 11 more fights on the card, and a couple of them have big impact in their respective divisions. The rest of the card features some intriguing matchups and some new faces.
The card airs on Fight Pass with an eight-fight preliminary card and a four-fight main card, which includes three ranked fighters to help give it some credence.
Want to know more about the fights? Well, here is your guide to Saturday's action.
Taylor Lapilus (8-1) vs. Rocky Lee (3-0)
1 of 12
Division: Featherweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
Featherweight newcomers open up UFC Fight Night 64 this weekend in Poland.
Eight of their combined 11 victories have come by way of submission. It seems like a good bet we will see some grappling. How good that grappling will be is a complete mystery.
These are two relative unknown commodities (a theme for UFC Fight Night 64). Lapilus is just 23 years old and is the one to watch during this fight. If he can look impressive, then the featherweight division may have another exciting prospect.
Lee is a member of AKA Thailand. Despite his never finishing anyone by KO/TKO, you can expect a solid striking game from the Taiwanese fighter.
I'll go with Lapilus by decision. He has more fights under his belt, and experience will matter as the fight draws on.
Prediction: Lapilus defeats Lee by decision.
Marcin Bandel (13-3) vs. Steven Ray (16-5)
2 of 12
Division: Lightweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
Marcin Bandel welcomes Steven Ray to the UFC in the second fight of the night.
Mairbek Taisumov defeated Bandel soundly in his UFC debut last October.
Ray has several fights in Cage Warriors to his credit including going 25 minutes against Curt Warburton. Regardless, this is a poor matchup for Ray.
Bandel will get Poland on the scoreboard early with a submission. Four of Ray's five career losses have come by way of tapping out, and Bandel has finished 12 of his 13 wins via submission. This is a stylistic matchup that plays in favor of the hometown fighter.
That isn't a coincidence.
Prediction: Bandel defeats Ray via submission in the first round.
Izabela Badurek (5-2) vs. Aleksandra Albu (1-0)
3 of 12
Division: Strawweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
I don't know what to make of this fight.
Aleksandra Albu has gotten some press after signing with the UFC, but it has largely been due to her suggestive pictures. She was originally scheduled to fight last year at bantamweight, but an injury forced her out of action. Or so we are told. I'm still not convinced this is a real person.
She will fight Poland's Izabela Badurek, who has fought at weight classes above strawweight.
The smart money is on Badurek. She has more experience, and there is more evidence that she is a real fighter. Even still, I'll go with Albu—if for no other reason than I believe the UFC sees a potential marketable athlete and will want her to get a win in her debut.
I would really like to help you out by breaking this fight down, but even I don't know. The Albu mystery will finally be over this weekend, and I cannot be happier about that.
Prediction: Albu defeats Badurek by decision.
Daniel Omielanczuk (16-4-1) vs. Anthony Hamilton (13-4)
4 of 12
Division: Heavyweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
The heavyweight division brings fighters we have seen before and whom we know are real.
Both fighters are coming off losses in their last outings. Jared Rosholt's wrestling smothered Omielanczuk in his last outing, and Todd Duffee knocked out Hamilton.
Hamilton is a decent athlete and has well-rounded abilities, but he just isn't that great of a fighter. This is a good matchup for the Polish fighter. Omielanczuk won't have to worry about being blanketed and can find a home for his offense.
Hamilton taps out within the first five minutes once Omielanczuk gets this to the canvas.
Prediction: Omielanczuk defeats Hamilton via submission in the first round.
Damian Stasiak (8-2) vs. Yaotzin Meza (20-9)
5 of 12Division: Featherweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
Damian Stasiak makes his UFC against Yaotzin Meza on Saturday, and when you search for Stasiak, one of the first things that pop up is the above video. My reaction is the same as the lady at the 0:05 mark.
Meza made his UFC on short notice against Chad Mendes in 2012, but since then he has posted a respectable UFC tenure, with a win over John Albert and back-to-back decision losses to quality bantamweights Chico Camus and Sergio Pettis (the Camus loss was overturned to a no-contest).
Now he moves up in weight.
Meza has the skills to win, but I'm hesitant to pick the 34-year-old because of his age. This fight favors a younger, hungrier athlete. The 25-year-old's speed will be the ultimate difference. Meza is tough enough to make this a fight but not good enough to take a decision.
Poland continues to see its homegrown talent win.
But, Mr. Meza, I must stress that you should beware of the heart punch.
Prediction: Stasiak defeats Meza by decision.
Sergio Moraes (8-2) vs. Mickael Lebout (13-3-1)
6 of 12
Division: Welterweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
We have not seen Sergio Moraes in the Octagon since the summer of 2013, but the last we saw of him he looked fantastic. He is coming in on back-to-back finishes over Renee Forte and Neil Magny. And he draws a UFC newcomer in this fight.
France's Mickael Lebout debuts after winning his past six fights.
This is a tall order for Lebout. Moraes is a fantastic ground fighter, and Lebout has not yet seen someone of this caliber on the mat. If he has any chance, he needs to keep it standing, and that is not his forte. He, too, is a grappler.
Expect Moraes to win impressively in his return.
Prediction: Moraes defeats Lebout via submission in the first round.
Bartosz Fabinski (11-2) vs. Garreth McLellan (12-2)
7 of 12
Division: Middleweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
After a few fights with UFC vets, we return to a fight between two newcomers. Bartosz Fabinski has won four straight, and Garreth McLellan is on a six-fight win streak of his own.
This looks to be a striker vs. grappler matchup on paper.
I am typically predisposed to side with the grappler in these situations. And I will keep that trend going, as Fabinski drops this fight in front of his home crowd. The South African will stifle his offense with clinches and takedowns.
This is truly a coin-flip fight. I would not be surprised to see Fabinski stuff the takedowns and pick McLellan apart on the feet. But under the bright lights of the UFC, he could struggle to keep McLellan off him.
I am not as sold on McLellan finishing the fight, but routinely forcing Fabinski to defend will play well for the judges.
Prediction: McLellan defeats Fabinski by decision.
Seth Baczynski (19-12) vs. Leon Edwards (8-2)
8 of 12
Division: Welterweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
Leon Edwards dropped his UFC debut to Claudio Henrique da Silva last November. The Englishman goes up against Seth Baczynski in the featured preliminary bout.
This is likely Baczynski's last chance in the UFC. He is a loser of four of his last five.
There is little doubt why The Polish Pistola is on the card, but his recent showings in the Octagon leave a lot to be desired. He has taken a lot of punishment. If Edwards can land cleanly, it may be a quick night. After 31 career outings, Baczynski's chin may be gone.
Even with that said, I'll take Baczynski.
With his career on the line and fighting in Poland, he'll play it safe. The American will use his wrestling to grind out a win to keep his job.
Prediction: Baczynski defeats Edwards by decision.
Joanne Calderwood (9-0) vs. Maryna Moroz (5-0)
9 of 12
Division: Strawweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
Maryna Moroz has a perfect 5-0 record, but the UFC did her no favors for her big debut. Moroz may have been better served by going to Invicta first or taking on stiffer competition before this fight. But, alas, it is the hand she has been dealt.
No. 6-ranked Joanne Calderwood should shine in this matchup.
Moroz has a grappling-based offense, but Calderwood has been in the cage with better grapplers. The experience of The Ultimate Fighter only made Calderwood a tougher out. This fight should be a showcase for Calderwood, and if she takes full advantage, look for her to establish herself as Joanna Jedrzejczyk's first title challenger.
Punches, kicks and knees. TKO finish.
Prediction: Calderwood defeats Moroz by TKO in the second round.
Pawel Pawlak (10-1) vs. Sheldon Westcott (8-2-1)
10 of 12
Division: Welterweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
Poland's Pawel Pawlak meets TUF: Nations runner-up Sheldon Westcott in the second of four main card attractions.
This fight is simple. If Pawlak is able to fight at a distance, he will win with his superior striking, but if Westcott can close the distance and grapple with Pawlak, it will be a snoozefest decision.
Pawlak will be able to find enough space to rack up points; he just won't get the finish.
Westcott will try to use his size to tire Pawlak, but it won't work. Westcott will be the first to tire. That is when Pawlak will fight his fight. It won't be pretty, but Pawlak picks up his first victory in the UFC, and Westcott will be in danger of getting cut.
Prediction: Pawlak defeats Westcott by decision.
Jimi Manuwa (14-1) vs. Jan Blachowicz (18-3)
11 of 12
Division: Light Heavyweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
The co-main event is an underrated fight between two potential contenders at 205 pounds.
We last saw No. 9-ranked contender Jimi Manuwa against Alexander Gustafsson. He should have learned a lot from the loss. On the other side of the cage is Jan Blachowicz, who has won six straight fights.
Blachowicz has wins over Sokoudjou, Mario Miranda, Houston Alexander, Goran Reljic and Ilir Latifi in his UFC debut. That's an impressive run.
This fight should mainly take place on the feet. Blachowicz will struggle to find takedowns against Manuwa, and that forces the two to exchange. Blachowicz has the height and reach on Manuwa, but the Englishman is a superior striker with vicious power.
Leg kicks are the key. If Manuwa lands enough early, he will certainly win a decision or possibly could get a stoppage. The leg kicks will take away Blachowicz's offense early. It will be a bit disappointing for the Polish crowd, but Manuwa takes this fight by being more technical on the feet.
Watch Blachowicz buckle from brutal leg kicks.
Prediction: Manuwa defeats Blachowicz by TKO in the second round.
Gabriel Gonzaga (16-9) vs. Mirko Filipovic (30-11-2)
12 of 12
Division: Heavyweight
Where to watch: UFC Fight Pass (subscription required)
The rematch no one asked for is on! Cro Cop returns to the UFC to battle Gabriel Gonzaga, who has lost back-to-back fights.
Everything in your blood should tell you Gonzaga is going to win. Cro Cop is shot; Gonzaga has been fighting better competition and should be able to repeat a knockout over Cro Cop. That is how this fight will most likely go.
But I can't pick him. I just can't.
Something in my gut tells me Cro Cop will land a head kick for revenge.
This will be an emphatic return for the Croatian heavyweight. Cro Cop puts Gonzaga away only to set up a more depressing fight in the heavyweight division in the future.
Prediction: Cro Cop defeats Gonzaga by KO in the first round.
