Playing 'Reality or Mirage' with 10 of MLB's Biggest Week 1 Performances
Baseball is back. With the first week in the books already, there have been quite a few noteworthy player performances that have some wondering whether they are for real—or just a mirage.
While some players are showing signs of keeping it up, not everything is as it seems, especially this early in the season.
In the interest of making things more fun, the focus here will be on players who entered the season in one of three categories: being a relative unknown, having a history of inconsistency or having joined a new team.
We already know that Cole Hamels' Opening Day start, in which he gave up four home runs, was a mirage simply because of his track record—including a history of slow starts—so that's not exactly a stretch.
These 10 standout showings, however, might be a little more difficult to discern.
Clay Buchholz, RHP, Boston Red Sox
1 of 10
Category: History of inconsistency
Clay Buchholz may be the ultimate enigma in baseball. In his nine-year career, the 30-year-old has at times looked like a Cy Young candidate and at others like the worst pitcher in the sport. Just note his ERAs the past two seasons: 1.74 in 2013 and then 5.34 in 2014.
So the Boston Red Sox, a club in need of a starter capable of pitching at the top of the rotation, have to like what Buchholz did in his first Opening Day assignment by hurling seven scoreless frames while striking out nine and allowing just four total baserunners.
But remember, the outing came against the rebuilding Philadelphia Phillies, who really might be the worst team in baseball in 2015.
Verdict: Mirage. Buchholz's stuff did look rather good, but he needs to show the same effort another handful of times before it's worth buying into him as something resembling an ace again.
Trevor Bauer, RHP, Cleveland Indians
2 of 10
Category: History of inconsistency
Like Buchholz, Trevor Bauer falls into the "inconsistent" bin and had his big outing against a club with significant questions about its offense in the Houston Astros, who are going to strike out a lot this year.
So it wasn't necessarily such a huge surprise that Bauer, 24, whiffed a whopping 11 in his first turn. His six hitless innings? That was more surprising, especially since he gave up 151 knocks in 153 frames a year ago.
The five walks weren't a good sign, particularly since Bauer has battled his command throughout his career as a pro (4.4 BB/9). But he walked only one in 27.2 spring innings, and man, his two-seamer—a pitch he worked on all offseason—was flat nasty.
Verdict: Reality, as Bauer looked like a legitimate breakout candidate entering the season, and if he can harness his deep arsenal, he'll be hard for batters to square up while he's mowing them down.
Jose Iglesias, SS, Detroit Tigers
3 of 10
Category: Relative unknown
Even though he surprisingly finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2013, Jose Iglesias remains a relative unknown (or at least something of a forgotten man) after injuries to both shins cost him all of 2014.
Now healthy, the 25-year-old is off to a quick start, hitting an even .600 (9-for-15), and he's even stolen two bases so far, showing that he has his legs back.
That said, this is a guy known almost entirely for his glove. While the defensive work will keep him a part of highlight reels, Iglesias never has swiped more than 14 bases in any season, nor has he hit all that well (.699 OPS in the majors, .638 in minors) outside of a 50-game stretch at the outset of 2013 when he hit .384 with the Boston Red Sox.
Verdict: Mirage. As hot as Iglesias is with both his bat and legs, don't expect either to continue. The defense, though, will make him a factor for the Detroit Tigers.
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Jake Lamb, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
4 of 10
Category: Relative unknown
Cuban sensation Yasmany Tomas got all the hype—not to mention, all the money—this offseason, but Jake Lamb beat him out to win the Arizona Diamondbacks' third base job to start 2015.
Lamb, 24, is a lesser-known prospect who was drafted in Round 6 in 2012, but he had a pop-up campaign in 2014, hitting .327/.407/.556 in the minors and earning a promotion to the majors in the second half.
Through his first three games, Lamb had just two hits, but he made both of them count in a big way: The first was a pinch-hit three-run double, and the second was a three-run homer.
He also had a pair of walks and no strikeouts, which is an indication that his plate discipline he showed in the minors appears to be back after a shaky showing late last year, when he whiffed 37 times against just six walks in 133 big league plate appearances.
Verdict: Reality, as Lamb should hit enough to hold down the hot corner position, especially against right-handers, while Tomas transitions to the outfield.
C.J. Wilson, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
5 of 10
Category: History of inconsistency
In his first turn of 2015, 11-year veteran C.J. Wilson twirled eight shutout innings, allowing all of three baserunners against what is expected to be a much-improved Seattle Mariners lineup.
That might have some figuring that the formerly steady left-hander is back to his old self, but let's make Wilson put together a string of solid starts before signing off on that.
Wilson is coming off a heinously bad 2014 in which he had a 4.51 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, and he always has had spotty command and iffy control (4.4 BB/9 in 2014). At age 34, it's not like he's getting younger, healthier or better.
Verdict: Mirage, because even though Wilson may make his 30 starts for a sixth consecutive campaign, he has a long way to go to earn back any sort of trust as a solid mid-rotation arm.
Travis Snider, OF, Baltimore Orioles
6 of 10
Category: Relative unknown/New team
Once a top prospect in the Toronto Blue Jays system, Travis Snider went from the Pittsburgh Pirates to the Baltimore Orioles this offseason in an underrated trade. Over his eight MLB seasons, Snider has yet to come close to performing up to his long-ago reputation.
For his career, the lefty swinger owns a .248/.313/.407 slash line, which makes his .462/.563/.538 stand out even more.
Thing is, Snider may be something of a late bloomer at 27—he did hit 13 homers in only 359 plate appearances while also walking nearly 10 percent of the time in 2014—and the O's have shown a knack for getting the most out of players. Plus, savvy skipper Buck Showalter will deploy Snider strategically, using him against right-handers.
Verdict: Reality, since although Snider isn't likely in line for a major breakout, he certainly could come close to being Baltimore's Steve Pearce of 2015.
Edinson Volquez, RHP, Kansas City Royals
7 of 10
Category: History of inconsistency/New team
Inked to a two-year, $20 million deal this winter, Edinson Volquez began his Kansas City Royals career brilliantly. The righty shut down a revamped Chicago White Sox lineup, permitting just one run on four hits to go with five whiffs against one walk.
What's more, Volquez, 31, put together arguably his best year in 2014, including a 3.04 ERA and 1.23 WHIP for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Thing is, Volquez also sported a FIP of 4.15—more than a full run higher than his actual ERA. And while his 3.3 walks-per-nine rate was his best yet, he's prone to losing his command at any moment and no longer gets to pitch in the NL or under the tutelage of Ray Searage, who has worked wonders with outcast arms like Francisco Liriano, A.J. Burnett, Charlie Morton and Volquez.
Verdict: Mirage, because there's real blowup potential here—and not in the good sense.
Kyle Kendrick, RHP, Colorado Rockies
8 of 10
Category: New team
OK, so this one probably is a little too easy, but we'll humor those who think Kyle Kendrick might not be half-bad considering he not only pitched on Opening Day for an MLB club—hey, the Colorado Rockies need all the arms they can get—but also pitched really well.
The 30-year-old went seven scoreless while striking out six Milwaukee Brewers in his first outing for the Mile-Highers.
Alas, that very well might wind up being Kendrick's best start of 2015. In his nine-year career, Kendrick's ERA sits at 4.39, and his FIP is even worse at 4.63. Tack on that hitters have found him to be immensely contactable (9.7 H/9, 1.1 HR/9 and 4.9 K/9), and it's hard to see this ending well.
Verdict: Mirage, which you no doubt have guessed by now—if not even before you read all of the above.
Aaron Harang, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
9 of 10
Category: New team
A year ago, Aaron Harang pulled off the better-than-anyone-could-have-imagined act rather well. The 36-year-old had a 3.20 ERA and 79 strikeouts in his first 84.1 frames with the Atlanta Braves. For the year, he finished with a perfectly respectable 3.57 mark over 204.1 innings—the most he compiled since, uh, 2007.
Harang didn't allow a run and tolerated just three baserunners while striking out eight in 6.1 innings against the new-look Boston Red Sox lineup in his first trip to the mound for the pitching-starved Philadelphia Phillies.
It's fair to wonder how well the soon-to-be 37-year-old will hold up this season after logging so many innings a year ago and pitching in a ballpark that historically has been much more hitter friendly. Even in his bounce-back-of-sorts 2014, Harang gave up 9.5 hits per nine innings.
Verdict: Mirage, although another early season smoke-and-mirrors act would be fun to watch—until it inevitably all falls apart.
Miguel Castro, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
10 of 10
Category: Relative unknown
Just since the beginning of spring training, Miguel Castro has gone from off-the-radar prospect to camp revelation to the second-youngest player in the majors—and now he looks like the favorite to be the Toronto Blue Jays closer.
Castro, who came into this world the day before Christmas in 1994, appears to have displaced Brett Cecil in the ninth after picking up a save in his first opportunity—and just his third appearance in the big leagues—against the New York Yankees on Thursday.
"It was a huge experience," Castro said, per Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star. “I hope to continue doing the things I’ve been doing so far. Sometimes I have to sit down and figure out what has happened. I’m pleased that they trust me and it gives me the confidence to go out and pitch.”
Armed with an upper-90s fastball, hard-breaking slider and dancing changeup, Castro's stuff is for real. The big question is how well he can harness it in The Show despite having pitched no higher than A-ball in 2014.
Verdict: Reality, because even at his tender age, Castro has the goods and moxie to be up to the task of closing for a contender.
Statistics are accurate through Friday, April 10, and courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
To talk baseball or fantasy baseball, check in with me on Twitter: @JayCat11
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