College Football Week Nine Projections! Will Your Team Be a Winner?

WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week. Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl match-ups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of Aug. 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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For more information on how we generate the results and the definitions of Absolute and Expected Records, click here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1 percent win is different than a 99 percent win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage. We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where, and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95 percent chance of winning, that means that it won at 95 percent or more of the 10,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview week nine (Oct. 31, 2009).

Game of the Week: No. 11 West Virginia 25 @ No. 38 South Florida 17
In one of the marquee Big East games of the season, Noel Devine and the West Virginia Mountaineers will travel to face Matt Grothe and the South Florida Bulls. As our 11th ranked team, we expect big things from a West Virginia team that underachieved last season. At 6'4", 221 pounds and athletic, Jarrett Brown may actually be a better fit than departing quarterback Pat White for what Head Coach Bill Stewart hopes to do on offense. With Devine at running back and all of the playmakers back at receiver, this should be a fun team to watch—especially against what appears to be an easy schedule. Traveling to Tampa should be the toughest challenge the Mountaineers face all year. If they can get past the Bulls, they have a good chance at a BCS bowl. On the other side, Matt Grothe has been the quarterback of a USF team ranked as high as No. 2 in the nation and will do everything he can with his arm and his legs to beat West Virginia and win that elusive Big East crown. In 10,000 simulations, West Virginia prevails 78.7 percent of the time and by an average score of 25-17.

Matchup	Home Win%	Avg Score
Coastal Carolina @ Clemson	95.0	5-37
North Carolina State @ Florida State	82.1	12-29
North Carolina @ Virginia Tech	78.7	9-21
Duke @ Virginia	44.9	14-15
Central Michigan @ Boston College	34.6	19-15
Miami (FL) @ Wake Forest	23.9	18-11
Kansas State @ Oklahoma	95.0	7-56
Iowa State @ Texas A&M	54.8	24-27
Kansas @ Texas Tech	53.2	30-33
Nebraska @ Baylor	52.5	27-29
Texas @ Oklahoma State	19.9	42-34
Missouri @ Colorado	7.0	31-15
Arkansas State @ Louisville	37.5	23-21
Rutgers @ Connecticut	24.3	21-14
West Virginia @ South Florida	21.3	25-17
Cincinnati @ Syracuse	9.3	30-14
Indiana @ Iowa	95.0	7-38
Michigan @ Illinois	95.0	11-33
New Mexico State @ Ohio State	95.0	4-47
Purdue @ Wisconsin	95.0	7-30
Michigan State @ Minnesota	39.9	15-14
Penn State @ Northwestern	5.3	27-9
Southern Methodist @ Tulsa	95.0	14-38
Southern Miss @ Houston	70.1	27-36
UAB @ UTEP	58.5	27-32
Marshall @ UCF	35.2	17-13
East Carolina @ Memphis	10.6	26-11
Temple @ Navy	91.0	10-27
Akron @ Northern Illinois	50.5	21-22
Ohio @ Ball State	47.2	18-20
Western Michigan @ Kent State	15.3	31-19
Toledo @ Miami (OH)	11.6	24-10
UNLV @ TCU	95.0	8-34
Wyoming @ Utah	95.0	7-34
New Mexico @ San Diego State	43.9	20-19
Air Force @ Colorado State	19.9	30-20
UCLA @ Oregon State	91.4	9-30
California @ Arizona State	7.6	29-10
Notre Dame @ Washington State	5.0	38-9
USC @ Oregon	5.0	38-14
Eastern Michigan @ Arkansas	95.0	8-37
Georgia @ Florida	95.0	8-46
Tulane @ LSU	95.0	8-54
South Carolina @ Tennessee	84.1	6-20
Mississippi State @ Kentucky	45.2	13-12
Georgia Tech @ Vanderbilt	9.6	27-10
Mississippi @ Auburn	5.0	44-10
Louisiana-Monroe @ Troy	93.0	9-32
Western Kentucky @ North Texas	72.4	10-20
Louisiana-Lafayette @ Florida International	67.8	16-23
Middle Tennessee @ Florida Atlantic	46.8	20-19
Hawaii @ Nevada	95.0	17-45
San Jose State @ Boise State	95.0	9-34
Utah State @ Fresno State	80.1	14-27
Louisiana Tech @ Idaho	5.0	35-8

Week Nine Standings

Conference	Team	Abs Record	Exp Record
Atlantic Coast	Georgia Tech	7 - 2	7 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Florida State	8 - 0	6 - 2
Atlantic Coast	Virginia Tech	7 - 1	6 - 2
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina State	6 - 2	5 - 3
Atlantic Coast	Clemson	5 - 3	5 - 3
Atlantic Coast	Maryland	5 - 3	5 - 3
Atlantic Coast	North Carolina	5 - 3	5 - 3
Atlantic Coast	Duke	4 - 4	4 - 4
Atlantic Coast	Miami (FL)	4 - 4	4 - 4
Atlantic Coast	Wake Forest	2 - 7	4 - 5
Atlantic Coast	Boston College	2 - 7	3 - 6
Atlantic Coast	Virginia	2 - 6	2 - 6
Big 12	Texas	8 - 0	7 - 1
Big 12	Oklahoma State	7 - 1	7 - 1
Big 12	Oklahoma	7 - 1	7 - 1
Big 12	Kansas	6 - 2	6 - 2
Big 12	Texas Tech	7 - 2	6 - 3
Big 12	Baylor	6 - 2	5 - 3
Big 12	Nebraska	4 - 4	5 - 3
Big 12	Missouri	4 - 4	4 - 4
Big 12	Kansas State	4 - 5	4 - 5
Big 12	Iowa State	2 - 7	3 - 6
Big 12	Colorado	3 - 5	2 - 6
Big 12	Texas A&M	1 - 7	2 - 6
Big East	West Virginia	8 - 0	7 - 1
Big East	Rutgers	8 - 0	6 - 2
Big East	Pittsburgh	7 - 1	6 - 2
Big East	Cincinnati	5 - 3	5 - 3
Big East	South Florida	5 - 3	5 - 3
Big East	Connecticut	3 - 5	3 - 5
Big East	Louisville	2 - 6	3 - 5
Big East	Syracuse	1 - 7	2 - 6
Big Ten	Penn State	9 - 0	8 - 1
Big Ten	Iowa	8 - 1	8 - 1
Big Ten	Ohio State	8 - 1	7 - 2
Big Ten	Illinois	6 - 2	6 - 2
Big Ten	Northwestern	6 - 3	6 - 3
Big Ten	Wisconsin	6 - 2	5 - 3
Big Ten	Michigan State	5 - 4	5 - 4
Big Ten	Michigan	3 - 6	4 - 5
Big Ten	Minnesota	3 - 6	4 - 5
Big Ten	Purdue	2 - 7	2 - 7
Big Ten	Indiana	1 - 8	2 - 7
Conference USA	Southern Miss	7 - 2	7 - 2
Conference USA	Houston	7 - 1	6 - 2
Conference USA	East Carolina	6 - 2	6 - 2
Conference USA	Tulsa	6 - 2	6 - 2
Conference USA	Marshall	5 - 4	4 - 5
Conference USA	UTEP	4 - 4	3 - 5
Conference USA	Memphis	2 - 6	3 - 5
Conference USA	Rice	2 - 6	3 - 5
Conference USA	UAB	2 - 6	3 - 5
Conference USA	Southern Methodist	2 - 6	2 - 6
Conference USA	Tulane	1 - 7	2 - 6
Conference USA	UCF	1 - 7	2 - 6
Independents (FBS)	Notre Dame	7 - 1	6 - 2
Independents (FBS)	Navy	6 - 3	5 - 4
Independents (FBS)	Army	2 - 6	3 - 5
Independents (FBS)	Western Kentucky	0 - 8	1 - 7
Mid-American	Western Michigan	9 - 0	7 - 2
Mid-American	Ball State	7 - 2	6 - 3
Mid-American	Central Michigan	6 - 3	6 - 3
Mid-American	Ohio	6 - 3	5 - 4
Mid-American	Akron	4 - 4	4 - 4
Mid-American	Northern Illinois	4 - 4	4 - 4
Mid-American	Temple	3 - 5	4 - 4
Mid-American	Kent State	4 - 5	4 - 5
Mid-American	Toledo	3 - 6	4 - 5
Mid-American	Bowling Green	4 - 4	3 - 5
Mid-American	Buffalo	3 - 5	3 - 5
Mid-American	Eastern Michigan	0 - 8	1 - 7
Mid-American	Miami (OH)	0 - 9	1 - 8
Mountain West	TCU	8 - 0	7 - 1
Mountain West	Utah	7 - 1	7 - 1
Mountain West	Brigham Young	5 - 3	6 - 2
Mountain West	Air Force	7 - 2	6 - 3
Mountain West	Colorado State	4 - 5	4 - 5
Mountain West	New Mexico	3 - 5	3 - 5
Mountain West	San Diego State	3 - 5	3 - 5
Mountain West	Wyoming	2 - 6	3 - 5
Mountain West	UNLV	4 - 5	3 - 6
Pacific-10	USC	8 - 0	8 - 0
Pacific-10	California	7 - 1	6 - 2
Pacific-10	Oregon State	7 - 1	6 - 2
Pacific-10	Arizona	5 - 2	5 - 2
Pacific-10	Oregon	6 - 2	5 - 3
Pacific-10	Stanford	6 - 2	5 - 3
Pacific-10	Arizona State	4 - 4	5 - 3
Pacific-10	UCLA	2 - 6	2 - 6
Pacific-10	Washington	1 - 7	1 - 7
Pacific-10	Washington State	0 - 8	1 - 7
Southeastern	Florida	8 - 0	8 - 0
Southeastern	Alabama	8 - 0	7 - 1
Southeastern	LSU	7 - 1	7 - 1
Southeastern	Mississippi	7 - 1	7 - 1
Southeastern	Georgia	5 - 3	5 - 3
Southeastern	Tennessee	5 - 3	5 - 3
Southeastern	Arkansas	4 - 4	4 - 4
Southeastern	Vanderbilt	5 - 4	4 - 5
Southeastern	Kentucky	2 - 6	3 - 5
Southeastern	South Carolina	3 - 6	3 - 6
Southeastern	Mississippi State	2 - 7	3 - 6
Southeastern	Auburn	2 - 7	2 - 7
Sun Belt	Troy	6 - 2	5 - 3
Sun Belt	Middle Tennessee	6 - 3	5 - 4
Sun Belt	Arkansas State	5 - 2	4 - 3
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Lafayette	5 - 3	4 - 4
Sun Belt	Florida International	4 - 4	4 - 4
Sun Belt	Florida Atlantic	3 - 4	3 - 4
Sun Belt	Louisiana-Monroe	1 - 7	2 - 6
Sun Belt	North Texas	1 - 8	2 - 7
Western Athletic	Boise State	7 - 1	7 - 1
Western Athletic	Nevada	7 - 1	6 - 2
Western Athletic	Louisiana Tech	6 - 2	6 - 2
Western Athletic	Fresno State	5 - 3	5 - 3
Western Athletic	Hawaii	3 - 5	3 - 5
Western Athletic	Utah State	3 - 5	3 - 5
Western Athletic	New Mexico State	2 - 7	3 - 6
Western Athletic	San Jose State	2 - 5	2 - 5
Western Athletic	Idaho	0 - 9	1 - 8

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!