Masters Leaderboard 2015: Thursday Score Updates and Tournament Predictions
Things are underway at Augusta, with the world's best players teeing off Thursday morning for the 2015 Masters Tournament.
The early-morning rounds saw defending champion Bubba Watson, 2013 green jacket recipient Adam Scott and a number of other high-profile sleepers get things started. Also on the course already are the likes of Phil Mickelson and Rory McIlroy, who were paired together in a group that will receive a ton of contention the first couple of days.
With players still in the midst of their first 18 holes, though, there is no use in trying to assess how the day's gone. Instead, let's go all macro and make a few predictions for what will happen over the course of the weekend.
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Be sure to check back in on the live leaderboard to see how off-base these predictions become by later this afternoon.
Tournament Predictions
Tiger Woods Will Miss the Cut
This isn't something I particularly enjoy writing. Tiger Woods is the best athlete of my childhood, having won his first major when I was a seven-year-old pipsqueak and continuing his dominance through my high school and college years. Woods is on that list of athletes with Derek Jeter and Peyton Manning, and I expect the moment they're all gone will provoke some type of midlife crisis.
Based on the last year, Woods may be closer to post-playing status than even Manning. Limited by a painful back condition since this time last year, the former world No. 1 has fallen outside the top 100 and finished in the top 25 in only one of his last nine tournaments. At this point in his career, Woods is more likely to withdraw or be cut than find himself on the leaderboard.
Woods knows he has an uphill climb ahead of him; he said as much during his pre-tournament press conference, indicating he worked day and night just to get himself ready for Augusta.
"People would never understand how much work I put into it to come back and do this again," Woods told reporters. "It was sunup to sundown, and whenever I had free time; if the kids were asleep, I'd still be doing it, and then when they were in school, I'd still be doing it. So it was a lot of work."
Hard work is admirable, but that doesn't sound like someone who's ready to compete on the biggest stage. Woods has not missed a cut at Augusta since turning pro; he's never finished worse than a tie for 40th. But given the rash of unfortunate firsts Woods has gone through over the past year and a half, I have a sinking feeling we'll be adding another to the pile come Friday evening.
Jordan Spieth Will Finish Better than Rory McIlroy
These are the world's two best golfers at the moment. Spieth has reached a clear-cut No. 2 over the last 12 months, coming within three strokes of taking the 2014 Masters and going on to capture three championships all over the world.
Spieth said, per George Willis of the New York Post:
"The hardest lesson taken from last year was that I had an opportunity to make a dream come true and I had it in my hands and then I was just a little anxious. You can make the excuse that as a first-time and whatever, 20 years old, that that’s likely to happen. But in my mind, I was playing the best through 60 holes, 62 holes and had an opportunity to continue that the next 10 or 11 holes and didn’t quite close it.
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Spieth enters the weekend having looked brilliant for almost the entire season. Following his strange cut at February's Farmers Insurance Open, Spieth has five top-10s in six tournaments, with the lone exception being a solid 17th-place outing at the WGC-Cadillac Championship. There are few golfers in history who have shown his level of poise and all-around skill set at such a young age.
McIlroy, meanwhile, enters Augusta trying to become the sixth player in the Masters era to complete the career Grand Slam. He'd be the second-youngest player to pull off the feat, behind only the aforementioned Eldrick.
Unfortunately for McIlroy, the course has been more of a nightmare than dream come true. His collapse at the 2011 Masters helped set the stage for a years-long bout with yips in huge moments and cemented his spot as the highest-variance player in the field. Those concerns are starting to be assuaged after McIlroy turned in a beautiful second half to 2014, but he's not yet earned the benefit of the doubt at Augusta.
Of the two favorites, Spieth feels like the one more likely to see his name on the leaderboard Sunday.
Phil Mickelson Will Contend Deep into Sunday
From 1995 to 2012, Mickelson finished worse than 12th at Augusta three times. He had 14 top-10s, including two victories, as his name became synonymous with the United States' most famous course. Even when Mickelson was at his lowest of lows as a player, he could be counted on to right the ship when it came time to compete for a green jacket.
Things have changed over the last two years. Mickelson placed in a tie for 54th in 2013 and then came back a year ago and was cut. It was only the second time Lefty failed to see an Augusta weekend. Add in the fact he hasn't won a tournament since his 2013 Open Championship and has failed to finish better than 17th this calendar year, and it'd be reasonable to think he's headed toward another downward spiral.
I'm more inclined to go with historical context. Even at age 44, it defies logic that Mickelson would suddenly lose all his touch at his favorite course. Finding comfort is the easiest way for a golfer to turn things around. If there's anything we're sure about, it's that Mickelson is more than comfortable striking off the Augusta tees.
“The thing about Augusta is that for me personally, I don’t feel like I have to be perfect, so it relaxes me," Mickelson said, per Mark Cannizzaro of the New York Post. "Even though I may not have my best stuff on any given day, I still feel like I can shoot in the 60s and I still feel like I can make pars and birdie some holes to shoot a decent number."
Call me a sucker, but I'm buying in on his confidence. One more false step, though, and we may have to come to the realization Lefty's Masters magic could be a thing of the past.
Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter
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