Masters 2015: Ranking the Best Golfers Under 30 at Augusta
The Masters begins Thursday, and the field at Augusta National is full of finely poised young pros who are looking to make a career statement on the biggest stage in golf. There’s something at stake for everyone, young and old, heading into the year’s first major.
Rory McIlroy is looking to complete a career Grand Slam with his first Masters win to cement a Hall of Fame legacy at age 25.
Jordan Spieth, who is also seeking legendary status, is trying to become the second-youngest player in history to win three PGA Tour events before his 22nd birthday.
Jason Day (27), like a number of others, is hoping to finally push through a history of close finishes for an inaugural major of his own.
This is the week when all the hype, momentum and emergency beer brewing come to a head. So, which of these young professionals stands the best chance to win the 2015 Masters? Do any dark horses have a shot against the PGA Tour’s seasoned veterans?
Here’s our list of the top 10 golfers under the age of 30 who are hoping to make history at Augusta this week.
No. 10: Victor Dubuisson
1 of 10
Age: 24
Odds to Win: 80-1
Best Masters Finish: Cut (2014)
The French international qualified for the Masters by being among the top 50 players in last year’s Final Official World Golf Ranking, per PGA.com. However, the current world No. 20 (188th in FedEx Cup standings) hasn’t had a sterling start to 2015.
Dubuisson tied for 17th at last week’s Shell Houston Open, tied for 62nd at the WGC-Cadillac Championship in March and missed the cut at the Honda Classic. And that doesn’t include his last event of 2014—the World Golf Championship-HSBC in November—where he withdrew after opening rounds of 76 and 77.
His best finish to date in the Masters was last year’s missed cut—but, to be fair, that was his first appearance at Augusta. Dubuisson improved his performance at the majors as the year progressed by tying for 28th at the U.S. Open, tying for ninth at the British Open and tying for seventh at the PGA Championship.
Though he’s earned his spot in the field, don’t expect anything special from Dubuisson at this year’s Masters.
No. 9: Billy Horschel
2 of 10
Age: 28
Odds to Win: 50-1
Best Masters Finish: T37 (2014)
Billy Horschel has had an erratic 2015, to say the least. The current world No. 18 (No. 52 in FedEx Cup standings) has played in nine events but missed the cut twice and finished in the top 25 only twice as well.
He’s coming into the Masters off his best finish of the year (third place at the Valero Texas Open), but he lacks the consistency that would make him even a reasonable dark-horse bet to win the Masters.
In his defense, Horschel ranks fifth on tour in ball striking and hits approximately 70 percent of greens in regulation (21st on tour), which is nice but not indicative of the overall status of his game.
Elsewhere, Horschel ranks 180th in putts per round and 156th in scoring average, which puts him well off the pace to make any kind of noise at Augusta.
Though Golf.com’s Cameron Morfit attests Horschel is “crazy competitive,” don’t bet on anything too monumental from the 28-year-old at Augusta this weekend. There’s a decent chance he’ll make the cut, but that’s about all you can look forward to in the drama department.
No. 8: Brooks Koepka
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Age: 24
Odds to Win: 80-1
Best Masters Finish: N/A
Brooks Koepka is currently ranked No. 19 in the world and No. 15 in the FedEx Cup standings. He had a strong start to the year with a victory in the Waste Management Phoenix Open on February 1, but he’s struggled to break into the top 25 in any tournament since.
Koepka looked to be building a little momentum with a T17 finish at the WGC-Cadillac in March, only to follow up with a withdrawal from the Arnold Palmer Invitational due to a rib injury two weeks later, per The Associated Press (via PGATour.com).
Though the Masters debutant is a long shot, given his inconsistent form of late, he has a lot going for him. As noted by the Associated Press, Koepka “is the prototype power player, works extraordinarily hard and doesn't get carried away by his emotions.”
The combination of strong arms and a calm head won’t be enough to win, but it will be enough to push him up the leaderboard to a respectable top-40 finish. Watch for Koepka (No. 4 on tour in average driving distance, per PGATour.com) to hammer the Augusta fairways and establish a solid foundation for contention in future majors.
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No. 7: Keegan Bradley
4 of 10
Age: 28
Odds to Win: 66-1
Best Masters Finish: T27 (2012)
Keegan Bradley may not quite have the hang of Augusta yet, but we know he has what it takes to win a major. His 2011 victory at the PGA Championship was not an outlier either, as he followed that performance with a T3 finish at the 2012 PGA and a T4 finish at the 2014 U.S. Open (not to mention back-to-back top-20 finishes at the last two British Opens).
Currently ranked No. 33 in the world (No. 68 in FedEx Cup), Bradley has made the cut in seven of his eight outings so far in 2015. Playing two-and-a-half months of nearly continuous competitive golf is a great way to tune mind and body for a major, and the 28-year-old has done exactly that.
In addition to that long stretch of consistency, Bradley also managed three top-25 finishes (including a tie for fourth at the Northern Trust Open in mid-February and a tie for fifth at last week’s Shell Houston Open).
He comes in at No. 19 on Rob Bolton’s PGATour.com pre-Masters power rankings, thanks largely to the fact that he is ranked third on tour in strokes gained through tee-to-green and tied for second in par-four scoring.
Though he has the invaluable psychological asset of having already won his first major, Bradley just isn’t playing as well as the favored contenders for this year’s green jacket. So, like Koepka, expect a solid top-40 finish from Bradley in his fourth competitive outing at Augusta.
No. 6: Hideki Matsuyama
5 of 10
Age: 23
Odds to Win: 66-1
Best Masters Finish: T54 as a professional (2012) and T27 as a low amateur (2011)
Like Bradley, Hideki Matsuyama hasn’t had the best of luck at the Masters, but he has shown his credentials at other majors over the course of his young career.
In 2013, the Japanese international tied for sixth at the British Open, tied for 10th at the U.S. Open and tied for 19th at the PGA Championship.
Though his 2014 outings in those three majors all saw him finish in the mid-30s on the leaderboard, the current No. 17 in the world (and No. 14 in FedEx Cup standings) will be feeling confident after starting this year in impressive fashion.
Out of seven events so far in 2015, Matsuyama has made six cuts and earned five top-25 finishes. Among those finishes, he tied for second at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, tied for third at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and tied for fourth at the Northern Trust Open.
The 23-year-old comes in at No. 14 on Bolton’s pre-Masters power rankings, as the PGATour.com analyst suggests he favors “form over history” by citing Matsuyama’s “five top-10 [finishes] in 2014-15.”
Given his edge in 2015 form, look for Matsuyama to play his way into a top-30 finish by Sunday evening.
No. 5: Rickie Fowler
6 of 10
Age: 26
Odds to Win: 28-1
Best Masters Finish: T5 (2014)
World No. 13 Rickie Fowler (78th in the FedEx Cup standings) may not be on fire in 2015, but he was knocking on the door of every major championship last year.
In 2014, he tied for fifth at the Masters, tied for second at both the U.S. Open and British Open and tied for third at the PGA. If ever there was a show of intent to win a first major, Fowler’s 2014 was it.
However, he will be hoping his form in majors overrides his form in all other events, as his best finish on tour this year was a tie for 12th at the WGC-Cadillac in early March. Out of the six events he’s played in the last three months, that was his only top-25 finish.
As a result of his Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde approach to majors and regular tour events, the Associated Press places him squarely in the “not to be overlooked” category:
"His notoriety is joining Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus as the only players to finish in the top 5 at all four majors. The difference is the other two won majors that year. Fowler only has two career victories, one of them in Korea. His game has become sharper under Butch Harmon. Now he just needs the results that matter.
"
Based solely on his recent major performances, you’d say Fowler is a dark horse to win at Augusta. Based on his overall career, you’d be smart to hedge your bets with a top-30 finish.
No. 4: Patrick Reed
7 of 10
Age: 24
Odds to Win: 28-1
Best Masters Finish: Cut (2014)
The world No. 15 and FedEx Cup No. 4 has played a lot of golf so far in 2015—and some of it has been good.
Through eight events, Reed has finished in the top 25 six times. Among those results, he claimed a playoff victory at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions in January, tied for seventh at the Honda Classic in March and finished second in a playoff at the Valspar Championship two weeks later.
Bolton places him at No. 10 in his pre-Masters power rankings, citing his four straight top-25 finishes and his No. 3-ranked scrambling on tour. Reed also ranks sixth in overall putting average with 1.52 putts per hole, per PGATour.com.
The Associated Press noted that Reed is “in every conversation about [the] best young Americans,” also calling attention to his “pugnacious spirit and will to win.”
And his will to win at Augusta may be greater than anywhere else, given his history as an amateur. As PGA.com’s T.J. Auclair noted, Reed “won two NCAA championships while playing for Augusta State, so it’s safe to say there’s no major he’d rather win more than the Masters in his college town.”
He has the talent and more than enough desire to put together four solid rounds this week, so look for Reed to improve upon his first Masters appearance with a laudable top-25 finish.
No. 3: Jason Day
8 of 10
Age: 27
Odds to Win: 14-1
Best Masters Finish: T2 (2011)
“It’s always good to be back here and playing here. It means you’re doing something right,” said Jason Day, per Bruce Young of ISeekGolf.com. “I got off to great start this year, but it’s exciting to be back to a place that I absolutely love.”
The world No. 5 and FedEx Cup No. 9 was 100 percent accurate in calling his 2015 start “great.”
Through six events so far this year, Day has managed five top-20 finishes, including tying for third at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions, winning a playoff for the Farmers Insurance Open and tying for fourth at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am.
The Australian tied for 20th last year at the Masters, but he finished third in 2013 and tied for second in 2011 (he withdrew in 2012).
Day comes in at No. 4 in Bolton’s pre-Masters power rankings, thanks in part to the fact he leads the tour in “par-four scoring and all-around.”
According to the Associated Press, “When healthy and playing a major, Day is dangerous. And so far, he appears to be very healthy and very determined. Finished two shots behind [Charl] Schwartzel in 2011 and two shots behind Adam Scott in 2013.”
But there’s more to Day than just his physical game—oh so much more, in fact.
As Auclair wrote:
"Day has pretty much put it out there that there’s no tournament he’d rather win than this one. … Perhaps the only problem facing Day at Augusta National is harnessing his desire to win and not letting it get in the way of his play. Just go out and play – don’t overthink it. Day has proven on two occasions recently he’s got all the tools required to win a green jacket. Is this the week he does it?
"
Given that the likes of Bubba Watson, Adam Scott and the next two players on this list are in the field, this probably won’t be Day’s year. However, don't count him out either. Look for Day to be hanging around the front page of the leaderboard on Sunday but settling for a top-10 finish.
No. 2: Rory McIlroy
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Age: 25
Odds to Win: 6-1
Best Masters Finish: T8 (2014)
Rory McIlroy has been the Masters favorite for some time now, considering he ended 2014 by winning the British Open and the PGA Championship. Given his pedigree of four major victories in the last four years, it would be difficult to bet against him—but keep in mind he’s far from a sure thing.
The Northern Irishman may have a solid record in the biggest tournaments of late, but his tour form in 2015 hasn’t been at his vintage best. McIlroy has played in only three PGA Tour events this year, and those few outings weren’t exhibitions in dominance.
He tied for 11th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, tied for ninth at the WGC-Cadillac and missed the cut at the Honda Classic. That’s not bad, but the small sample size leaves a lot up to the fans’ imagination.
Auclair acknowledges McIlroy’s recent poor form but feels the 25-year-old can still triumph, saying, “Since winning the PGA Championship last August, McIlroy has spent the last eight months obsessing about this week. He’s fired up for this week.”
McIlroy also noted his form heading into Augusta, but he chose to look optimistically upon his present circumstance, via ESPN.com:
"Results-wise, the last three tournaments haven't been what I've wanted. I still feel like there's plenty of positives to take from them, especially Doral and Bay Hill, I felt like I played pretty good there. A couple silly mistakes here and there, but for the most part I felt like I got what I needed out of them. But the last two weeks have been great. I've just practiced at home in Florida and made another trip up here a couple of Fridays ago.
"
McIlroy also believes the course is set up to his benefit, adding, “If you're looking at the courses, Augusta's the one that should set up the best for me just with my ball flight and being comfortable off the tee here, especially being able to turn the ball over from right to left.”
He’s confident. The oddsmakers are confident. Are you confident?
McIlroy may become the sixth player in history to complete the career Grand Slam, but he’ll still have to get through Bubba Watson and the next player on this list to do it. Look for the Northern Irishman to be in one of the final two pairings on Sunday, but don’t bet the farm on seeing him in green—the competition is just too hot.
No. 1: Jordan Spieth
10 of 10
Age: 22
Odds to Win: 8-1
Best Masters Finish: T2 (2014)
As noted on Monday, Jordan Spieth is the player to watch this year at Augusta. The current world No. 4 and FedEx No. 2 is on fire this calendar year, and he’s showing little evidence of slowing down.
Spieth has played in eight events in 2015 and finished in the top 10 in six of them. In his last three outings, he came in second in a playoff at the Shell Houston Open, finished second at the Valero Texas Open and won a playoff for the Valspar Championship.
In addition to establishing a base camp near the summit of seemingly every leaderboard since the start of February, Spieth also boasts some impressive stats. He’s third on tour in scoring average (69.5), second in strokes gained total (2.35) and first in putting average (1.68), per PGATour.com.
“No player has been hotter the last month than the 21-year-old Spieth,” noted PGA.com’s Auclair. “In his first Masters start a year ago, Spieth nearly became the tournament’s youngest winner. He had a share of the 54-hole lead but settled for a tie for second—a remarkable Masters debut.”
The Associated Press added, “Even though he has played Augusta National only once, he knows he has the game for it based on last year,” which suggests he has the psychological fortitude and (now) experience necessary to make another charge this year.
And, for good measure, Bolton rated Spieth as No. 3 on his pre-Masters power rankings, just behind seasoned professionals Bubba Watson and Jimmy Walker.
Though still somewhat of a dark horse because of his age and lack of major victories, Spieth will prevail with his cool head and blistering form to win this year’s Masters.
All odds are courtesy of Odds Shark. All statistics are courtesy of PGATour.com unless otherwise noted.
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