Masters 2015: Last-Minute Odds, Picks and Projections
Tiger's back, at least in the pure physical sense.
But can Tiger Woods whip up some of his old-school Masters magic? That remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, there are lots of other golfers who appear poised to make a run at the coveted green jacket that will go to the winner of the 79th Masters, which gets underway this Thursday. There are plenty of interesting subplots that don't involve Tiger but will be well worth keeping an eye on.
Among them: Can Rory McIlroy, who won the last two majors in 2014, keep his string of major championships alive while scoring his first Masters victory? He's supposedly the favorite.
Don't be so sure, as three-time Masters runner-up Johnny Miller reminded us all.
"Well, the Masters does funny things to people. Some guys get Augusta fever. I know I did. It's such a sweet tournament, the course is so thrilling, the setting just reeks of golf history, [and] once you get a taste of being in contention it can drive you nuts. It doesn't allow you to play your normal, comfortable game, because you want it too much.
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Read on to see what may lie ahead to separate the contenders from the pretenders.
Rain Gear Might Be Necessary
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The bad news: It's likely to rain some. The good news: It should be over by Saturday morning.
As far as the first two rounds go Thursday and Friday, according to Weather.com, there is a threat of late-afternoon thunderstorms for the first round Thursday, which may even linger until Friday morning, and the rain may return late Friday afternoon or early evening.
By Saturday, though, the threat of rain should be gone for the last two rounds. Hopefully whatever weather may hit Thursday and Friday will not force players off the course, which could possibly back up the schedule for the rest of the tournament and complicate matters for everyone.
Depending on when and if the rain comes, it also could soften up the greens and become an advantage for some players over others who play before it hits.
Rory Ready to Roar?
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Rory McIlroy is the pre-tournament favorite, according to Odds Shark and just about everyone else.
As of Tuesday, Odds Shark listed McIlroy as the 6-1 favorite, followed by Jordan Spieth (8-1), defending champion Bubba Watson (11-1), Jason Day (14-1) and Dustin Johnson (14-1). More on them later.
First, let's talk about McIlroy. He won the British Open and the PGA Championship to claim the last two majors of 2014 and is looking for his third in a row this weekend. With his average drive length of 305 yards off the tee, a natural draw and a great touch around and on the greens, there is no reason why he shouldn't be the favorite.
But he and everyone else know one of the keys, if he's to break through and win his first Masters, is that he'll need to play the par-five holes better than he has in the past at Augusta. He made six sixes last year, five of them on the four par-fives at Augusta National.
"If you look at the previous winners here, they've all played the par-fives well. Bubba last year played them at eight under par; I played them at even par, and he beat me by eight shots," McIlroy said Tuesday. "If I can just play the par-fives a little better, hopefully that will help me do better."
Spieth Could Strike
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Don't forget that Spieth was in the hunt until the last nine holes in last year's Masters.
Now 21 years old, he's a year wiser, and he's also incredibly hot, following up his victory in the Valspar Championship on March 15 with runner-up finishes in the Valero Texas Open and the Shell Houston Open. He's second in the current FedEx Cup standings and now up to No. 4 in the Official World Golf Ranking.
Did we mention that he also has a phenomenal short game that should serve him well at Augusta? "The kid has a short game somewhere between Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods," ESPN.com senior golf analyst Michael Collins said.
Collins was talking about Mickelson and Woods in their primes, too. The scary thing about Spieth is that he hasn't even approached that period of his playing career yet.
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What About Bubba?
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Never count Bubba Watson out at Augusta.
The two-time Masters champion reminded the world of that a year ago when he earned his second green jacket. So who cares if he hasn't played in a PGA Tour event since finishing third on March 8 in the World Golf Championships-Cadillac Championship?
Watson certainly isn't worried about it, telling reporters that he's been getting plenty of practice in on his own. Plus, his two previous wins give him the mental comfort of knowing that Augusta National fits his game.
"I've played. I just haven't played in competition. But when I'm playing for a burrito or a smoothie I'm mad if I lose," Watson told Steve DiMeglio of USA Today last Sunday. "I feel good. Last year I took off two weeks before the tournament and did pretty good."
Yes, he did. Point taken.
The Next Wave of Contenders
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Australian Jason Day and American Dustin Johnson seem due to make their own runs at Augusta.
Day has battled recent thumb and back injuries, but he finally appears to be healthy again. He finished third in the 2013 Masters, and two years before that, he was a runner-up. So if he's healthy, there is no reason he shouldn't be near the top of the leaderboard all weekend.
Day told Ewan Murray of The Guardian regarding the Masters:
"That is all I have dreamt about, for a long time; winning that tournament. I feel like my game is suited to there. I hit it long and I hit it high. I feel like my short game can produce some good creativity around the greens and I think I'm a pretty good lag putter from long distance on fast greens.
I have had some pretty good finishes there but I'm still just looking for that moment where I put the green jacket on.
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Johnson has been a little up-and-down this year after returning from a hiatus last year to deal with personal issues, missing the cut in two of the six tournaments he's played in. But in the other four, he's finished tied for fourth, second, won the WGC-Cadillac championship and sixth, respectively.
Others who bear watching this weekend and their odds of winning, according to Odds Shark as of Tuesday, include Henrik Stenson (20-1); past Masters champions Adam Scott and Phil Mickelson (both 22-1); current leading PGA Tour money-winner Jimmy Walker (also 22-1); Patrick Reed, Rickie Fowler and, yes, Tiger Woods (all 28-1).
Foreign Invasion
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Victor Dubuisson is listed by Odds Shark as an 80-1 long shot. It might not be a bad gamble to risk a bet on him.
In addition to McIlroy, who hails from Northern Ireland, and the likes of Australians Scott and Day, there are the usual foreign dignitaries who are the greatest threats to win the Masters (yet they rarely do).
The list includes guys such as Sergio Garcia from Spain, Argentina's Angel Cabrera (winner of the 2009 Masters and also the 2007 U.S. Open) and England's Justin Rose (winner of the 2013 U.S. Open) or Lee Westwood (frequently in contention at majors, but never a winner).
Dubuisson, from France, represents the new breed on the edge of a foreign invasion. Not yet 25, he hasn't played particularly well of late, but he is a creative shot-maker who has been frequently compared to Seve Ballesteros.
Dubuisson missed the cut in last year's Masters, his first, but he played well for Europe in the last Ryder Cup and seems to be getting more comfortable on the big stage. He could surprise some folks this weekend, maybe even himself.
Dark-Horse Possibilities
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J.B. Holmes, Ryan Moore and Jimmy Walker are all very good golfers. None are household names.
Each of them could change that by contending or even winning at Augusta.
Long shots? Dark horses? Sure, they are all that. But they've got game, too.
Holmes is coming off a win in the Shell Houston Open and arguably should have won the WGC-Cadillac Championship less than a month before that, when he entered the final round with a five-stroke lead but ended up finishing second, one stroke behind Dustin Johnson. He also finished second in the Farmers Insurance Open, losing in a playoff to Day.
Moore won the CIMB Classic earlier this season and has two other top-nine finishes this season.
And Walker, well, it's tough to call the current leading money-winner on the PGA Tour a long shot or dark horse. But he's still fighting to be recognized as one of the best in the game. With two wins, including the Valero Texas Open on March 29, and a second-place finish already on his scorecard in tournaments this season, he's among the hottest golfers out there entering the weekend.
All the Talk About Tiger
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Can he really give us the old Tiger? That's the question everyone has about Tiger Woods entering this Masters.
According to all observers, he seems to be in great spirits this week at Augusta. But that hardly means he's ready to contend after playing only 47 holes of competitive golf this season and, frankly, only a handful of those very well.
He hasn't played competitively at all since Feb. 5, when he withdrew during the first round of the Farmers Insurance Open. He then announced a leave to work on his game, which included shocking short-game shortcomings (mainly because he has in the past been so masterful around the greens).
"People would never understand how much work I put into it to come back and do this again," Woods said, via ESPN.com. "It was sunup to sundown and whenever I had free time; if the kids were asleep, I'd still be doing it, and then when they were in school, I'd still be doing it. So it was a lot of work."
For that, he is to be commended. But he's 39 now and only a year removed from back surgery that caused him to sit out the 2014 Masters. To think he's actually going to be ready to contend in this tournament like times of old is a stretch, to say the least.
And Our Pick Is...
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Why Rickie Fowler? And why pick him now when he's struggled since finishing third and sixth, respectively, in his first two tournaments of 2015?
Well, why not? Somebody always comes from seemingly nowhere to contend at the Masters, and this time if Fowler can get to Sunday within shouting distance of the leader, or on top himself, he should know how to finish it off.
That assumption is based on the fact that last year he finished tied for fifth with Matt Kuchar in the Masters and then went on to finish in the top five of each of the last three majors as well. Besides, the always colorful Fowler says he feels good about his game heading into this weekend.
"I'm really, really pleased with where my game's at. It just hasn't really shown yet in tournament play. ... Coming back to Augusta, I just keep getting more and more comfortable with the golf course," Fowler told Doug Stutsman of The Augusta Chronicle.
Joe Menzer has written six sports-related books and occasionally hacks his way around a golf course when he isn't writing about golf and various sports for Bleacher Report and others. Follow him on Twitter @OneMenz.
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