NBA Fates on the Line During the 2015 Playoffs
The 2015 NBA playoffs could wind up shaping the league's foundation for years to come.
An early-postseason exit might convince top-tier free agents to seriously reconsider hitching their wagons to their respective teams for the next half-decade. Likewise, a handful of coaches could find themselves on the chopping block if they suffer a first- or second-round upset.
Then again, a deeper-than-expected playoff run could inspire some to eschew free agency and bring the band back together for another title shot. Whichever team emerges with the Larry O'Brien Trophy in hand could represent the beginning of the NBA's next dynasty…or perhaps the end of the most recent one.
Which free agents and coaches have their fates on the line during the 2015 playoffs? In no particular order, the playoff runs of the following 15 players and coaches figure to heavily influence their respective futures one way or another.
Honorable Mentions
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The following three players don't figure to be major draws on the free-agent market, as their roles are decidedly smaller than those that follow. Still, each of the three will be playing for a new contract this postseason, making them all worth keeping an eye on.
Aaron Brooks, Chicago Bulls
Derrick Rose is back as the Chicago Bulls' starting point guard following surgery on his torn meniscus, but Aaron Brooks still figures to have a significant role off the bench in the playoffs.
Brooks capably guided the Bulls to a 10-10 record in Rose's absence, averaging 14.2 points, 4.5 assists, 2.5 rebounds and 1.5 treys per game as a starter. Though his field-goal percentage of .397 during that span won't make many eager to sign him as a starting floor general this summer, he'll be one of the top reserve point guards in the free-agent market.
In years past, backup 1's such as C.J. Watson, Nate Robinson and D.J. Augustin parlayed big years with the Bulls into fat paydays the following summer, and Brooks appears likely to follow in their footsteps. An electric playoff performance—perhaps similar to Nate Rob's 34-point eruption against the Brooklyn Nets in 2013—could wind up earning Brooks millions.
Josh Smith, Houston Rockets
Is Josh Smith still capable of starting on a winning team, or is he best suited to a bench role? With Donatas Motiejunas now down for the year, the Houston Rockets forward will have a shot to prove the former.
Though his per-game averages have fallen across the board since joining the Rockets, that's largely a function of his reduced playing time. In a spot start against the lackluster Minnesota Timberwolves on March 27, Smith put up 16 points on 6-of-8 shooting, 11 rebounds and three blocks in nearly 40 minutes, looking like his former stat-sheet-stuffing self.
J-Smoove's disastrous year-and-a-half with the Detroit Pistons likely sullied his reputation across the league. The playoffs will be his chance to recapture the hearts of front offices before he reaches unrestricted free agency in July.
Tristan Thompson, Cleveland Cavaliers
Tristan Thompson made an enormous bet on himself this past fall, reportedly turning down a four-year, $52 million extension, per Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski. Rich Paul, Thompson's agent, also happens to represent LeBron James, so an above-market deal for the fourth-year forward was seen as a "tax—spoken or unspoken—that would come with James' return," Woj wrote.
Because James can opt out of his contract this summer, the Cavaliers would be veritably insane to offer Thompson a penny less than they did this past fall. Still, the former Texas Longhorn has done little to prove he's worth a contract that large, which means the playoffs could be his last chance to do so.
Thompson could always sign a one-year qualifying offer and opt to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2016, right when the salary cap is set to explode. If he's looking to guarantee himself some long-term money this July, however, he'll need to help carry the Cavs deep into the playoffs.
Kevin Love, Cleveland Cavaliers
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There's no more obvious place to start than with Cleveland Cavaliers power forward Kevin Love, whose time in Cleveland has been wrought with drama.
From LeBron James' "FIT-OUT" tweet to Love describing the season as "frustrating" and "one of the toughest situations I've had to deal with" to Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group back in February, his transition to the Cavs hasn't been seamless by any means.
He still bristles at being called a stretch 4, as he told Haynes in early March, despite launching a career-high 40.8 percent of his shot attempts from three-point range.
With the Atlanta Hawks and Chicago Bulls—Cleveland's biggest Eastern Conference threats—both stumbling into the playoffs, the Cavs appear primed for their first NBA Finals appearance since 2007. If that doesn't happen, though, pinning the failure on Love could be catastrophic, as Grantland's Jason Concepcion wrote:
"Not getting to the Finals would be seen as a disappointment. But if there's one thing we know about the Cavs this season, perceptions end up having lives of their own. If the Cavs don't win the title, the most important thing for the franchise will be that Kevin Love not be considered the reason why.
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According to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, Cleveland traded for Love "with a firm agreement [he] will opt out of his contract in 2015 and re-sign with the Cavaliers on a five-year, $120 million-plus contract extension." The outcome of this year's playoffs, especially if the Cavs fall short of their title quest, may put that reported agreement to the test.
Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
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Every year, like clockwork, the same question bubbles to the surface: Is this the last chance for the San Antonio Spurs to win a title? With a soon-to-be 39-year-old Tim Duncan and 37-year-old Manu Ginobili each set to become unrestricted free agents this July, it bears asking again.
Neither player will leave the Spurs for another team in free agency, but retirement looms as a possibility for both. In a recent interview with Argentinian newspaper La Nacion, Ginobili alluded to just that, saying (via HoopsHype), "Every retired player tells me, 'Enjoy it, play one more year.' And well, I've been doing this for 19 years, and if it's not at the end of the season, it will be the following year."
Back in February, Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich also conceded Duncan's fate remains uncertain past this year. "No matter how (the season) ends, I think Timmy is going to look at (retirement) again," Popovich told USA Today's Sam Amick. "And if you ask me, my guess is that he'll go for another one because he has been so consistent this season."
If the Spurs are back-to-back champions for the first time in franchise history this June, will that inspire Duncan and Ginobili to stick around for a possible three-peat? Or will that represent the last major hurdle for each to conquer, allowing them to go out on top?
One thing is clear: The Spurs are ready for either scenario to unfold. "If [Duncan and Ginobili retire], the Spurs are not going to step back and rebuild, no one thinks that," a Western Conference executive told Sean Deveney of Sporting News. "The understanding is [Memphis Grizzlies center Marc] Gasol would be their top target."
Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
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Given the possible San Antonio Spurs connection, Memphis Grizzlies center Marc Gasol is next on the clock among players whose fates the 2015 playoffs could determine.
Sean Deveney of Sporting News, who reported San Antonio's interest in Gasol, also wrote the following in mid-March about Big Spain's looming unrestricted free agency:
"If Memphis fizzles in the playoffs, Gasol would have to seriously look at other options on the free-agent market. The chances of him landing with a rebuilding outfit like the Lakers or Knicks are slim. According to sources, Gasol, who turned 30 in January, would likely only leave Memphis for a team that gave him a better championship shot.
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The seven-year veteran has given no indication to date he plans on leaving the Grizzlies. Last June, he called Memphis his "home way from home" in speaking with Ronald Tillery of The Commercial Appeal, saying, "I live day to day, but I don’t see myself anywhere else…I don't see a reason to change right now."
With Zach Randolph and Tony Allen both on the wrong side of 33, a first-round playoff exit could cause Gasol to reconsider that stance. Though he's spent most of his adult life in Memphis—he went to high school there, too—the 30-year-old center has only so many more years of potentially being a key piece on a title contender.
LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
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This summer will test whether the Portland Trail Blazers' dismal luck is limited solely to injuries or if it extends to free agency, too.
Like Marc Gasol, Blazers power forward LaMarcus Aldridge hasn't indicated he plans to leaving Portland when he becomes an unrestricted free agent this summer. In fact, last July, he told Joe Freeman of The Oregonian he was "happy to stay, happy to be here, happy with the direction the team has gone the last year or two," adding, "I want to be the best Blazer—ever."
Despite those glowing comments, ESPN.com's Ramona Shelburne isn't convinced Aldridge is a lock to re-sign. During an appearance on 710 ESPN's Mason and Ireland on Wednesday, she said the following (via Ryan Ward of Lakers Nation):
"I think LaMarcus Aldridge is actually a lot more in play than people think. You have that group there. How can you really improve that group up in Portland? I think Neil [Olshey] has done a great job up there, but it’s Portland, he’s never quite fit in and they’ve made it really clear that Damian Lillard is the face of their franchise.
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At the D-League showcase in January, nearly a half-dozen executives from assorted teams mentioned the San Antonio Spurs as a threat to pry Aldridge away, according to Grantland's Zach Lowe. With two other Blazers starters also set to hit the market this summer (Robin Lopez and Wesley Matthews), a first-round upset might force the former Texas Longhorn to reconsider staying a Blazer.
Rajon Rondo, Dallas Mavericks
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All signs point to the Los Angeles Lakers making a serious run at Dallas Mavericks point guard Rajon Rondo in free agency, no matter what happens during the playoffs. Though Rondo's relationship with Mavericks head coach Rick Carlisle appears to be light-years ahead of where it was earlier in the season, a first-round knockout could push the nine-year veteran further out the door.
Rondo was spotted having breakfast with Kobe Bryant when the Lakers were in Boston in December, leading to speculation about whether or not Bryant was recruiting him to L.A. In January, the Lakers legend didn't deny his desire to woo Rondo, telling Steve Bulpett of the Boston Herald, "I'm not done. I'm not stopping until he signs an extension."
Sean Deveney of Sporting News reported Rondo will be "at the head of the [Lakers'] list" of free-agent targets this summer, and it appears the feeling may be mutual. On ESPN 710's Max and Marcellus, ESPN's Max Kellerman suggested Rondo is a "mortal lock" to join the Lakers this summer (via Lakers Nation's Ryan Ward):
"Marcellus, when I first heard that Rondo was coming to L.A., which he is, it was about a month ago and a friend of mine who knows, who is in the business, said it is a mortal lock that the Lakers will sign Rajon Rondo. I’m not going to mention his name, but it is a very reliable source who has his ear to the ground.
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Assuming this rampant Rondo-to-L.A. speculation winds up coming to fruition, the question then becomes how much money the Lakers are willing to devote to him. A strong postseason showing against a top Western Conference contender could convince the franchise to pony up more dough, while a lackluster outing could make the Lakers hesitant to offer him anywhere near a max contract.
Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets
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For a large portion of the 2014-15 season, Brook Lopez fell out of the Brooklyn Nets' starting lineup, making him look like a surefire lock to opt into his $16.7 million player option for next season. Since forcing his way back into a starter role, however, he's been performing at a career-best level, putting his free-agent status back into question.
Over the Nets' past 20 games, Lopez has averaged 21.9 points on 56.9 percent shooting, 9.6 rebounds and 2.1 blocks, helping bolster the Nets' late-season playoff push. Accordingly, "most execs expect Lopez to opt out and enter free agency after rampaging across the league over the last month," Grantland's Zach Lowe reported.
Given his extensive injury history—he's missed 144 of a possible 310 games over the past four seasons, largely due to an assortment of foot ailments—Lopez would be wise to lock up a long-term contract as soon as possible. CBS Sports' Chris Towers noted a few other financial factors that would make an opt-out wise:
"Working in Lopez's favor is the fact that the salary cap is set to jump in a big way next summer, which means teams may be more willing to throw money around, including a potential max offer. If he opts out, Lopez will be joining a free agent class that all of a sudden looks like it could have some overlap with his skill set.
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Bleacher Report's Howard Beck tabbed Lopez as the player he believes will make the most money with a big postseason performance. Though the Nets aren't likely to topple either the Atlanta Hawks or Cleveland Cavaliers in their first-round matchup, Lopez holding his own would go a long way toward earning him a fat new contract if he does opt out.
Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
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Paul Millsap will be one of the biggest X-factors on this summer's free-agent market. The Atlanta Hawks outright stole him on a two-year, $19 million contract back in 2013, and now, two All-Star berths later, he's set for a significant raise.
When it comes to Millsap's free-agent future, however, his ceiling remains a question mark, as Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher recently opined:
"What we really need to find out is the next step. Can he be the central piece on a team that makes a deep run in the playoffs? He has yet to prove that, and if he is going to be a building block—whether it's for the Hawks moving forward, or for another franchise—he's going to have to determine that [in the playoffs].
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This Hawks squad isn't designed for one superstar to dominate night in and night out, a la Anthony Davis with the New Orleans Pelicans. Instead, each Hawk starter plays an integral, versatile role, as Millsap's per-game averages over the past two seasons—17.4 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.7 steals, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 threes—would indicate.
With the Hawks having won a franchise-record 60 games and counting, anything short of a conference finals trip would qualify as a massive disappointment. If Millsap fades into the background during an earlier-than-expected playoff demise, it could give general managers legitimate doubt about handing him max or near-max money this summer.
DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
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Whether it's with the Los Angeles Clippers or another team, DeAndre Jordan is absolutely getting a max contract this summer. Though head coach Doc Rivers' Defensive Player of the Year campaign for the big man is a farce, shot-swatting, board-gobbling nearly 7-footers aren't readily available on the free-agent market.
Despite the success he's had under Rivers' stewardship, don't assume Jordan is guaranteed to re-sign in Los Angeles. In a mid-March podcast appearance with USA Today's Sam Amick, the big man wasn't ready to commit to the Clippers past this season:
"I mean I've obviously been here seven years, and the past two have been great. Doc has been my biggest supporter and the best coach I've ever had. The team is great. The guys are great. We have great camaraderie. But the free agency process is definitely going to be a fun one.
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With Rivers having seized control of the Clippers' basketball operations, he's certain to offer Jordan a max contract, which will have an extra year and higher raises than any other team can provide. However, a first-round playoff loss could cause the Texas A&M product to question if he believes this core is capable of getting past the Western Conference semifinals.
Perhaps Jordan takes a look out East and realizes he'd instantly become the conference's most imposing center, or maybe he decides another team out West has a clearer road to a title. Whatever the case may be, the Clippers need to avoid an early-playoff exit to improve their odds of retaining Jordan this summer.
Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors
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Draymond Green's emergence as the Golden State Warriors' starting 4 has him in legitimate contention for both Defensive Player of the Year and Most Improved Player. There's no questioning his value to the Warriors, who wouldn't have sniffed the 60-win threshold without his Swiss army knife-esque defensive acumen.
With Green set to become a restricted free agent this offseason, however, his next payday could come down to his playoff performance.
"He's already earned himself a bump, from six figures to eight figures," Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher suggested in a video with B/R's Howard Beck. "But just how big that eight figures is and how close to a max contract he gets, I believe will be determined by what he does in the postseason."
As Beck noted in that same conversation, free agents tend to get paid based on their per-game production, which wouldn't bode well for Green's bank account. He's setting career highs across the board with 11.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.4 treys and 1.3 blocks in 31.7 minutes per game this season, but the scoring output doesn't scream "franchise building block."
How willing front offices are to look past Green's paltry per-game numbers could well come down to what happens this postseason. If a bigger power forward such as Blake Griffin or Zach Randolph wears him down over the course of a series, it may cast doubt over whether he's simply a product of Golden State's system or if he could be a budding two-way star on any team.
Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
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Restricted free agency is a high-stakes game of chicken between NBA general managers and players. Chicago Bulls swingman Jimmy Butler will soon find himself in the thick of said game.
During a January appearance on ESPN 1000's Waddle and Silvy, Bulls executive vice president of basketball operations John Paxson said the team plans on matching any offer Butler receives this summer, including a max deal, (via ESPNChicago.com's Nick Friedell). However, the Bulls wouldn't be the first team to say one thing and do another.
Just last May, Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey tweeted that Chandler Parsons would be back with the team the following fall. Two months later, Morey chose not to match the Dallas Mavericks' three-year, $46 million offer sheet, calling it "one of the most untradeable" contracts he'd ever seen.
In all likelihood, the Bulls won't risk having a similar situation unfold and will instead offer Butler a five-year max deal right when free agency begins. A lackluster postseason showing could make Chicago reconsider that approach, though, especially given Jimmy Buckets' insane number of minutes over the past two years.
Butler's offensive eruption this season made him into a leading candidate for Most Improved Player, and he appears to be one of the league's best young two-way wings. As long as he doesn't flame out in the playoffs, he's almost certain to receive a max offer sheet this summer, putting Chicago's front office to the test.
Danny Green, San Antonio Spurs
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San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich hasn't been shy about dubbing Kawhi Leonard the future face of the franchise as far back as 2012. Even with a miserable postseason outing and an earlier-than-expected demise, the Spurs are pretty surely going to match any offer he receives in restricted free agency.
But the same can't be said about Danny Green, who is set to become an unrestricted free agent in July. Though the Spurs would undoubtedly like to re-sign him along with Leonard, the six-year veteran will be in line for a massive raise over the $4.025 million he's earning this season.
Just how large of a raise will he receive, though? His postseason figures to help dictate that.
Over the Spurs' past two runs to the NBA Finals, Green has been a critical part of their rotation, shooting a preposterous 47.9 percent on 4.9 three-point attempts per game. He'll be one of the best three-and-D players available this summer, but opposing general managers will be keen to determine if he's capable of emerging beyond that role.
Given the impending salary-cap spike, Green likely should be expecting somewhere in the neighborhood of $6 million-$8 million per year on his next contract. If he plays a major role in leading San Antonio to back-to-back titles, however, some shooting-needy team could decide he's worth even more than that come July.
DeMarre Carroll, Atlanta Hawks
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DeMarre Carroll may be the only Atlanta Hawks starter who wasn't named an All-Star this year, but he's just as critical to the team's success as his starting counterparts.
Without Carroll's ability to lock down opposing wings, there's little chance the Hawks would have a top-10-ranked defense. On the offensive end, his three-point shooting ability—he's knocking down 39.7 percent of his 4.3 threes per game this year—forces opponents to guard him on the perimeter and not devote all of their attention to sharpshooter Kyle Korver.
With Paul Millsap also in line for unrestricted free agency in July, the Hawks could have to choose between re-signing one or the other. They're set to have over $20 million in cap space, but Millsap's max deal is likely to be in the neighborhood of $18.9 million, per Basketball Insiders' Eric Pincus, which would leave them little room to improve their roster outside of re-signing him and Carroll.
Carroll figures to be one of the premier three-and-D players out there, but like Danny Green of the Spurs, there's reason to wonder whether or not that's his ceiling. Is Carroll capable of elevating his play further, perhaps becoming a poor man's Kawhi Leonard, or is he no better than a fourth option on a title team?
Regardless, he should receive a massive raise over the two-year, $5 million contract he signed with Atlanta back in 2013.
David Blatt, Cleveland Cavaliers
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Being LeBron James' head coach might be the NBA's most thankless job.
Win back-to-back titles, like Miami Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra did during James' tenure with the team in 2011-12 and 2012-13, and you'll receive a sliver of the credit you otherwise deserve. Fall short of expectations, however, and fans won't stop calling for your head until it's served up on a platter.
Cleveland Cavaliers head coach David Blatt has learned that lesson the hard way this season. From unrelenting speculation about his relationship with James to non-stories about the four-time MVP occasionally calling plays spiraling into a national punch line, the first-year coach has endured his fair share of drama.
After Blatt was named the Eastern Conference Coach of the Month in March, Cavs forward Tristan Thompson acknowledged how far his coach has come this year. In a conversation with Chris Haynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group, Thompson said:
"He took a lot of flak from you and everyone else. Everybody. But you know that's part of being new to the game and winning everybody's confidence. He's developed so much over the season. He's come a long way and I think you guys see it and we see it.
As the leader of our team, and the head, he's come a long way and I think he's definitely showed everyone that he belongs.
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Despite the team having won a league-high 78 percent of its games since Jan. 15, bowing out of the playoffs earlier than expected will put Blatt right back on the hot seat. Though the Cavs enter the Eastern Conference playoffs as the No. 2 seed, anything short of an NBA Finals berth should send the rumor mill into overdrive once more.
Randy Wittman, Washington Wizards
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When the Washington Wizards erupted out to a 31-15 record to start the season, they appeared to be a on their way to reaching the 50-win plateau for the first time since 1978-89. They promptly proceeded to lose 11 of their next 13 contests, however, and haven't quite recaptured their early-season mojo.
When team owner Ted Leonsis put the Wizards on blast in a late-February blog post, it was only natural to wonder what it meant for the long-term future of head coach Randy Wittman:
"The spacing on the floor is not positive right now as we lacked some three point shooting options, and teams are defending us by stacking the paint. To be out scored by 20 points at the free throw line last night is really indicative of how much we are struggling on the offensive end of the floor.
In today's NBA, three point shooting and foul shots are so very vital, running the floor to get lay ups as the efficient 2 point shot is also key. We haven't been executing those sets well; and our record of late is concerning to all.
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During that slide, CSNWashington.com's Carla Peay told Bleacher Report's Stephen Nelson her belief is that "he's taken the Wizards as far as he can take them." Though he signed a three-year extension this past June, the final year of that deal is not fully guaranteed, according to J. Michael of CSNWashington.com, so the Wizards would only be on the hook for one more season beyond this one.
Last postseason, Wittman danced circles around Chicago Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau, leading his scrappy club to a first-round upset. If he fails to replicate that playoff magic, however, he's likely to find himself back on the hot seat given how dramatically the Wizards fell apart over the past few months.
Tom Thibodeau, Chicago Bulls
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The odds of Tom Thibodeau returning as Chicago Bulls head coach in 2015-16 appear to be dwindling by the day.
Back in January, K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune reported "several league sources believe Thibodeau's relationship with management is beyond repair." On Friday, Bleacher Report's Ric Bucher revealed that third-party sources connected to the Chicago head coach have begun exploring his other options if the Bulls do move on.
Chicago hasn't made a choice one way or the other about Thibodeau's future, according to Johnson, which means this postseason could decide his fate:
"Nobody knows how this playoff run or Thibodeau's job status will unfold. The common ground that unites players, coaches, executives and ownership is the goal of a championship.
That's the organizational focus now, as it should be.
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The Bulls endured their fair share of injuries this season and suffered a few traditional head-scratching losses, but they're seemingly in line for a top-four playoff seed anyway. If they're able to advance to the conference finals for the first time since the 2010-11 season, it could convince Chicago's management to give Thibodeau one more chance with this core instead of parting ways with him.
All statistics and records are current through Sunday, April 12, and are via NBA.com or Basketball-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. All contract information via Spotrac.com.
