Safest, Riskiest Choices 49ers Might Consider in 2015 NFL Draft

The San Francisco 49ers will be picking at No. 15 in the 2015 NFL draft—the first of nine selections that general manager Trent Baalke has at his disposal.

Barring any sort of Day 1 trade, this will be the highest that the 49ers have drafted since the team selected linebacker Aldon Smith seventh overall in 2011.

Such a selection leaves Baalke with plenty of options. He could opt to trade up, trade down or stay put depending on the nature of the team's needs and how he views the best way to meet them. But, as was the case with Smith, some picks can come with inherent risks.

The 2015 draft class is no exception. A number of enticing prospects might fit San Francisco's needs. Some of these players, however, carry such risks.

A prospect's ceiling and potential may outweigh some risks. For this evaluation, Baalke will have to weigh off-field concerns, health risks and whether or not a specific player will fit into the 49ers' scheme. These will measure against a prospect's possible impact at the pro level.

On the other hand, Baalke and the front office could take the safe route and select players who leave little doubt in becoming worthy NFL contributors who do not come with any such worries. The best options would be prospects who have the smallest amount of risk yet who can impact the team to the maximum effect.

Late-round prospects might be worth the risk. But early-round possibilities warrant the most attention regarding whether or not a pick is safe or risky. 

With a number of directions in which Baalke could move early, which players draw the concern and which ones are the safe bets?

Riskiest: Wide Receiver Devin Smith, Ohio State

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Wide receiver Devin Smith has questions surrounding his pass-catching and route-running abilities.

Devin Smith, WR

School: Ohio State

Collegiate Statistics

The 49ers could select defense first in the 2015 NFL draft. Given plausible needs at cornerback and along the defensive line, this is a possibility that should be no surprise.

But Baalke likely won't ignore other needs at wide receiver. 

Despite the free-agent additions of wide receivers Torrey Smith and Jerome Simpson, San Francisco's receiving crop might be in need of a long-term addition who could eventually replace 34-year-old veteran Anquan Boldin if he departs after his upcoming contract year.

The 49ers could look to Round 2 to solve this issue. Wide receiver Devin Smith is one target whom Baalke could land on Day 2 of the draft. CBS Sports ranks Smith as the No. 56 overall prospect, which means he may fall right into San Francisco's hands.

And the 49ers do appear interested given that they met with Smith at the NFL Scouting Combine, per Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee.

"

Met w/ #49ers.. @RobertKlemko's draft column: Ohio State's Devin Smith busted myths in Indy. http://t.co/qo01n4ZlYe pic.twitter.com/0UVaZI913P”

— Matt Barrows (@mattbarrows) February 26, 2015"

While enticing, Smith might not exactly be the notable receiving target San Francisco needs.

According to Dane Brugler of CBS Sports, Smith suffers from a number of focus drops and is "unproven as a route-runner."

Combining this information with Bleacher Report NFL draft analyst Matt Miller's scouting perspectives on wide receivers reveals that Smith struggles with the top two necessary aspects: hands and route running.

Miller writes:

"

When we look at wide receivers in the college game and project them to the NFL, you want not only a player who catches a lot of passes—production really isn't that important for wide receivers—but one who routinely catches the ball when it is thrown his way.

Being a good route-runner is something that I find to be underrated too often. How well the receiver sees the field, separates from the coverage and adjusts to the ball are keys to his future success.

"

Smith's issues here make him a risky choice. While he is capable of the big play, Smith might not be the consistent target for a 49ers offense that ranked No. 30 in the league last year with just 3,063 receiving yards.

Safest: Wide Receiver Jaelen Strong, Arizona State

Jaelen Strong, WR

School: Arizona State

Collegiate Statistics

Despite their defensive needs, a top-tier wide receiver prospect could still dominate the 49ers' early draft plans given the general ineptitude of their offense in 2014 (ranked No. 25 with just 306 points).

Upgrading the wide receiver position would be of benefit given that Boldin is entering a contract year this season and the depth cast of wideouts—Bruce Ellington and Quinton Patton—have yet to establish themselves as bona fide targets.

Wide receiver Jaelen Strong is built as his name suggests. The 6'2", 217-pound prospect plays with excellent physicality, per Brugler.

Brugler cites Strong's ability to fight for contested balls and make tremendous catches. A particular play is illustrated in the above video.

Additionally, Strong is tabbed by CBS Sports as the No. 20 overall prospect, which means he could easily fall into San Francisco's lap at No. 15 in Round 1.

Strong could be the perfect replacement for a player like Boldin. The 34-year-old veteran could mentor the rookie if the 49ers target and select him. 

This would be a safe pick.

But it might not be the ultimate choice. Strong lacks top-end speed, per Brugler. And, like Boldin, Strong is more of a possession receiver than an over-the-top threat. 

San Francisco will likely use an early pick to select a receiving target who has speed to burn instead of finding a Boldin-like clone. Yet if Strong is the best player available on San Francisco's big board, selecting the talented pass-catcher wouldn't be a bad idea.

Riskiest: Defensive End Randy Gregory, Nebraska

Randy Gregory, DE

School: Nebraska

Collegiate Statistics

Defensive end Randy Gregory has top-tier talent, but he also comes with numerous character concerns as described in the video above.

The 49ers will need help along their defensive line at some point in the near future. With former 49ers defensive end Ray McDonald now off the roster, San Francisco will be looking for a talented edge-rusher to solidify the pass rush and wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks.

Gregory amassed 17.5 sacks in his last two seasons at Nebraska. But his red flags are enough to drop his draft stock.

According to CBS Sports, Gregory is ranked as the No. 2 defensive end available. But a failed drug test at the NFL Scouting Combine has dropped his draft stock.

"I blame myself," Gregory told NFL.com's Kimberly Jones (h/t Brugler). "And I know it sounds cliche, but there's really no one else I can blame."

Brugler now has Gregory mocked to the 49ers at No. 15, which indicates that this top-tier talent might not be worthy of a top-five pick.

And it appears as if San Francisco would consider adding Gregory, per Bleacher Report's Matt Miller, as the team has met with the talented yet troubled prospect.

"

.@Huskers pass rusher Randy Gregory has met with the 49ers and Vikings, I'm told.

— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) March 13, 2015"

Gregory's drug-use concerns could wind up being a benefit for San Francisco if he is able to remove himself from such issues. The potential drop in draft stock could be the lucky break that the 49ers need to reinforce their D-line.

But drug use could remain an ongoing problem for Gregory, as well.

Safest: Wide Receiver DeVante Parker, Louisville

DeVante Parker, WR

School: Louisville

Collegiate Statistics

Targeting a wide receiver could still be a possibility for Baalke in Round 1 despite the recent signings of Torrey Smith and Simpson.

And one of the safer bets would be Louisville receiving prospect DeVante Parker.

Parker is ranked by CBS Sports as the No. 13 overall prospect and the third-best wideout available in this year's draft class. Unlike premier wideout targets such as Alabama's Amari Cooper and West Virginia's Kevin White, Parker would not mandate as costly a trade-up from Baalke if the talented receiver doesn't fall to San Francisco at No. 15.

This alone makes him a safe choice should the 49ers focus on offense first in Round 1. Baalke could save most of his additional picks for other areas of need. And it wouldn't be as if San Francisco were taking a gamble on a prospect with red flags like wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham.

Parker trumps another receiving prospect—ASU's Jaelen Strong—by his breakaway speed. Brugler cited this ability:

"

Long-striding speed with natural lower body explosion to get vertical in a hurry. Shows multiple gears in his routes to set up defenders. Quick-starter with the initial movements off the line of scrimmage to gain free release and stack corners, using field leverage to give him room to work down the sideline.

"

Parker does come with some injury risk, however, which ranks him lower on this list. The talented wideout missed seven games during his senior year due to a foot injury, per Brugler.

Hopefully, this will be a one-time incident and not a chronic problem.

San Francisco needs speed on offense, and despite the signing of Smith, the addition of Parker would provide another deep threat who could help revamp a passing game that garnered just 3,063 yards last season—30th in the NFL.

Riskiest: Cornerback Marcus Peters, Washington

Marcus Peters, CB

School: Washington

Collegiate Statistics

Character concerns make the possible 49ers selection of cornerback Marcus Peters a perfect example of high risk versus high reward.

The 49ers are interested in the 6'0", 197-pound defensive back, per Barrows.

Additionally, the talented corner has been linked to San Francisco in Round 1. Both Rob Rang and Pete Prisco of CBS Sports have suggested that Peters will be the 49ers' first selection in their most recent mocks.

Rang elaborates further:

"

The retirements of Patrick Willis and Chris Borland shift attention to inside linebacker, but replacing starting cornerback Chris Culliver also is a concern. If not for character red-flags, Peters would rank as the top cornerback. The solidly-built 6-foot, 197-pounder plays with the physicality necessary in the NFC West and has very good hands. 49ers GM Trent Baalke attended UW's Pro Day April 2 where Peters, an Oakland native, starred. Fiery coach Jim Tomsula might have the personality to maximize Peters' vast potential.

"

"

Happy Easter to all. I can't ship chocolate bunnies or colored eggs but do offer my NEWLY updated 2015 NFL Mock Draft http://t.co/U2j85cMeGu

— Rob Rang (@RobRang) April 5, 2015"

Minus these character issues, Peters could easily be ranked as the top cornerback available in this year's draft—a possibility examined in the video above.

And there is no doubting San Francisco's need within the secondary.

Peters could provide that high-profile, impactful presence that the 49ers have lacked in recent years from the cornerback position. His excellent coverage abilities could help maintain a San Francisco pass defense that ranked No. 5 in the league with just 3,531 yards allowed through the air last year.

But will the red flags continue at the NFL level?

That's a decision that will have to be answered by the 49ers on draft day if Peters is available.

Safest: Defensive End Arik Armstead, Oregon

Arik Armstead, DE

School: Oregon

Collegiate Statistics

The 49ers are going to need some help along the defensive line at one point or another. After dismissing defensive end Ray McDonald for an alleged sexual-assault incident last year and then being faced with the possible retirement of fellow DE Justin Smith, San Francisco's D-line will be a critical focus.

Defensive end Tank Carradine should see an increased role. And the addition of veteran D-lineman Darnell Dockett via free agency also helps.

Yet adding a bona fide D-line presence who provides long-term impact might be something that former defensive line coach and current head coach Jim Tomsula won't overlook.

Oregon defensive tackle Arik Armstead could be the player whom San Francisco is seeking—an aspect pointed out in the video above.

Tyler Emerick of 49ers.com describes Armstead's attributes and how he fits into the 49ers' plans:

"

The player most frequently connected to the 49ers should they address their defensive front with the 15th overall pick is Oregon's Arik Armstead.

A physical freak, Armstead stands 6-foot-7, weighs 292 pounds, owns a massive wingspan and has the potential to get even bigger as a pro. At the NFL Scouting Combine in February, he ran a 5.10-second 40-yard dash, recorded a 34-inch vertical jump and tallied 24 reps at the bench press.

Ranked by NFL.com as the 15th overall prospect and second among defensive linemen, Armstead has drawn comparisons to Arizona Cardinals Pro Bowler Calais Campbell. Still, despite his pro-ready stature, Armstead is considered a raw prospect whose high ceiling will dictate where he's drafted.

"

"

This DL prospect has consistently been linked to #49ers in mock drafts. Learn more about him. http://t.co/FZNiCRfBm8 pic.twitter.com/Exq9keTcrS

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) March 31, 2015"

Armstead doesn't have any of the off-field concerns that have surrounded other potential 49ers targets. 

Additionally, he excels in his run-stopping abilities, per Frank Cooney of the Sports Xchange (h/t CBS Sports)—an aspect in which San Francisco's defense will need to thrive in 2015.

If Armstead could step into Smith's role as the anchor of the D-line, this pick would be one of the strongest that Baalke could make.

Riskiest: Wide Receiver Dorial Green-Beckham, Oklahoma

Dorial Green-Beckham, WR

School: Oklahoma

Collegiate Statistics

A wide receiver may not be the most pressing need for the 49ers after having tabbed Torrey Smith and Simpson prior to the draft.

Yet it wouldn't be a complete surprise if Baalke reinforced this position in Round 1 anyway given that a 34-year-old Boldin is entering the final season of his current two-year deal.

One enticing yet polarizing prospect is Oklahoma wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham.

At 6'5" and 237 pounds, Green-Beckham may possess the most dynamic skill set of any receiver entering the draft. But his off-field issues are enough to question whether or not he'll be a Round 1 target, per Rang.

Brugler described some of the red flags that accompany Green-Beckham:

"

Strong red flags and immature make-up. Multiple off-field incidents, including two arrests for marijuana possession: first in Oct. 2012 with four other teammates; and then in Jan. 2014, although those charges were later dismissed when another person in the car where the drugs were found took ownership. Was dismissed from Missouri after allegedly forcing himself into an apartment and pushing a female down the stairs. Wasn't formally charged because no one pressed charges, but could enter the NFL with a strike against him when it comes to domestic abuse.

"

Are these risks upon which San Francisco is willing to gamble?

Ryan Sakamoto of NinerFans.com thinks that Baalke could elect to go in this direction and take the risk. Baalke has gambled on players with questionable character issues before—linebacker Aaron Lynch and running back Carlos Hyde are two examples.

"

Should the #49ers​ take a risk on DGB? Give us your feedback Forever Faithful! http://t.co/FpOK4QOTnn

— Ryan Sakamoto (@SakamotoRyan) March 27, 2015"

Should he be drafted by the 49ers, the big question would be if Green-Beckham could put his troubled past behind him.

Or will he wind up being the next version of wide receiver Josh Gordon?

Safest: Cornerback Trae Waynes, Michigan State

Trae Waynes, CB

School: Michigan State

Collegiate Statistics

The 49ers are going to need some secondary help after losing defensive backs Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox to free agency this offseason.

One name that has popped up regularly has been Michigan State cornerback Trae Waynes.

CBS Sports' Will Brinson has tabbed Waynes to the 49ers in his most recent mock draft. Waynes could easily go higher, since he is widely regarded as the No. 1 cornerback available in the draft and the 12th-best overall prospect available, per CBS Sports.

Still, the 49ers might be able to trade up a few spots if necessary—a move that could be possible given Baalke's history of draft-day transactions (safety Eric Reid in 2013 is a perfect example).

Waynes is a special type of player who combines excellent speed and coverage abilities, per Brugler. 

If there is a negative, it is the fact that Waynes' 6'0", 186-pound frame needs some additional bulk—an aspect pointed out by Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area.

"

#NFLDraft Profile: #MichiganState CB Trae Waynes http://t.co/ZLuU0ZyHVV #NFL #49ers #Raiders pic.twitter.com/rcq8zvVkt6

— Comcast SportsNet (@CSNAuthentic) April 1, 2015"

Hitting the weight room isn't exactly a tough obstacle to overcome. The natural talents are there, which makes Waynes a near-perfect fit for San Francisco in Round 1.

All statistics, records and accolades courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com and Sports-Reference.com unless otherwise indicated. Supplemental draft information courtesy of CBS Sports.

Peter Panacy is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Be sure to check out his entire archive on 49ers news, insight and analysis.

Follow him @PeterPanacy on Twitter.